Which Scrips to Avoid Or Get Out

uasish · #1 8th March 2007, 11:40 PM

Hi,
My contrarion nature provokes to open this thread.Now as we all will be bullish
within few days,this is the right moment to identify which are the Scrips or sectors that may fizzle out on Nifty's journey to 5K,based absolutely pure TA.
For Technical Analysis only datas are O,H,L,C,Vol,OI & nothing else.
With these datas only can we effectively visualize future course of Price's
movement ? As we all students of TA know ,after an event has occured,that
means after price has traversed,we can say this may happen.This is based on
deductive logic,that in similar situation in past the Price behaviour or reaction was like this,hence this time also price will do the same.
Equiped with that knowledge bank we can project future.The cache is we have to rightly analyse the present action of Price perfectly in the 1st place
then we fall back on the huge stored knowledge bank.
So can we now identify which stocks or going to falter or fizzle out in this climb to 5k.otherwise my scrip will be stuck & will be left out in the party.
Inviting logical views based on TA only (no fundamental reason or news).

Asish

uasish · #2 9th March 2007, 01:33 PM

Hi,
BHEL yesterday (+) by 160.90 now (-) by 3.8 % ,so this is imp. to know which one will survive.

Asish

alpha1 · #3 9th March 2007, 01:46 PM

Actually, the TA is more of analysis of crowd behavior.
In that sense, it holds ground.

The Indicators, just give the indications of rise or fall, but that indication is just a probability. Its not a sure shot signal that something concrete is gonna happen.

The actual signal has to be interpreted by humans.

So if some indicator says : overbought, to some ppl, it may mean, buy since the scrip may go into an uptrend, to others it may mean a sell signal, because they feel that sell cycle is gonna start.

uasish · #4 9th March 2007, 02:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by alpha1

Actually, the TA is more of analysis of crowd behavior.
In that sense, it holds ground.

The Indicators, just give the indications of rise or fall, but that indication is just a probability. Its not a sure shot signal that something concrete is gonna happen.

The actual signal has to be interpreted by humans.

So if some indicator says : overbought, to some ppl, it may mean, buy since the scrip may go into an uptrend, to others it may mean a sell signal, because they feel that sell cycle is gonna start.

Very right but other than indicators/oscillators there are also other ways like Fib,Pattern,Waves etc .These are also based on past knowledge base,now a days even Neuron like simulations are used to get the best possible outcome on the recent Price stimulli.You zeroed on the right logic it is the Man behind the data ,who actually assimilates these information to come to a conclusion.
Here people uses SYSTEM to eradicate even the emotive/subjective bias,but
what i want to infer is these are all Deductive logic is there any scope of Inductive Logic ?

Asish

uasish · #5 10th March 2007, 03:18 PM

Hi,
Avoid "Cement Stocks " ,can we put forward a purely Technical logic for it.

Asish

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