Do we know Nifty going to bounce ?

Hi,
Mkt humbles me everyday,i will have to make a call as money is involved.
There is a possibility of bounce, my logics :=
1)On Monthly chart the earlier correction reversed from the Low (of 30/06/06,bar) & again
ended (High of 27/2/07,bar),the Fib 23.6% of that is 3854.15 & Mon's Low is 3856.70 (which
is not breached today).
2)Nifty near month's "PTI" of Get is 31 (150 bar count),clearly indicating there is a probability
of the 5th Down fizziling out before reaching its destination,hence a weakness in the
structural count.Now if we change to Alternate-3 Long term ,it is seen that this is the
4th wave unfolding downwards with a 1st phase a-b-c correction,so the down Tgt for "c"
may be 0.618 (Fib Extension) of "a"(14th Feb Low) "b"(19th Feb High) & its .618 extension
is 3846.65.Now in cash Nifty it is 3836.95.
3)My trading experience has taught me whenever there is a confluence area of 2 Fibs drawn
with 2 different impulse wave that Zone acts as a Supp/Res point,here cash Nifty 3854.15
to 3836.95 is that confluence zone.
4)FII are selling heavily Nifty Fut.so what ?(we have also protected our portfolio),the new FIIs
are in a dillemma whether Mr Chidanbaran is going to allow long term (a 12 month holding)tax
benifit or not hence they cant sell in cash so hedgeing in futures.Hence all this short in the
system has to be covered.
5)After a Bullish Harami there is an Engulfing Bear on the daily chart in a downtrend.

How do i know whether this falling knife is going to stop here temporarily so that i can
make my exit strategy ? Answer to this at mkt place tommorrow is
a) If nearing confluence zone how the spot (3836.95)& fut Nifty (3846.65) behaves.
b) Finance minister keeps long term capital gains tax intact.

Asish

Hi Ashish,
The US amrkets are down almost 3% in response to the Chinese market crash. Being the Budget day (and not to mention about the state assembly pol results) and because of global cues, i believe that indian markets are gooing to open low on 28th feb. One has to wait and see the quantum of this fall tomorrow.

Judemit,
You are absolutely right,may be because of the confluence ,the fall of last 2 trading days was limited & may be the gap down opening if any ,wil open at the confluence zone.

Asish

Hi Asis,

It will be better if you can attach charts, to support your view, as a picture is better than thousand words!

Regards,

ss

Very good assessment. The market started on a weak note and continue tumbling on budget expectation . May be time to go for good scrips

Thought of reviewing the thread ,in the present scenario.Plz scribble your views.

Judemit ka date of post dekh.

Well Well,
The Housing bit is overdone. The US market has come crashing with Support at 12750 levels.
if you see the Dow closely, it is building up and than falling like this very often with big black candles. What it shows is the nervousness that exists in the US.
I will call this the NET-FEAR PSYCHOSIS:
It seems that all the Analysts in the World have nothing better to do than BASH the US.
Also the Internet- has enabled us to read such Fearful Reports of an impending CRASH.
Agreed that US is having problems but what is the Reason of Such Big Black Candles.?
Markets are going up and up and than all of a Sudden there is a fall * due to lack of Oxygen or sentiment. All the Black Candles come back for Support from Trendlines and than resume the Uptrend again.
I consider this as a very very healthy sign for a Bull Market. These Small Hiccups will ensure that there is never a big Hiccup.As investors are forced to Churn Sectors.
Thanks to Net- Fear Psychosis the Big Black Candles take place.
It is always good to take support and move up.
What does this mean for the Global Markets ?
Fear, Fear and more Fear.
We just cannot accept that ASIA is growing and bursting at its Seams. We have the New World Economy dominated by China and India. Both are not going to slow down, both are going to grow and take share from other countries.
China is a story good for 100 years and so is India. I have lived in China for 5 years. Best place on Earth. People are too hardworking, too honest, too loyal ! We used to leave work behind and come home. There is so much work in China.India is seeing the same but it is not based on Factories it is based on Brain Production. We are very good at building systems and even though the Chinese are hardworking but compared to a Indian they are not able to work at 15% of the Indian Brain speed. The diffrence is the Government in China is extremely supportive and it does not create Nuisance. Indian Government spends a lot of time on creating Hassles and Nuisance. In that way China is a Democracy and We a Communist system. Getting back to India.
We will grow and our speed of growth will improve as we have a young and hard working population when it comes to Management. This is the diffrence. This management is churning out Young Enterpruners in every sector and this will drive India to a much Superior
growth driver..more latter

Indian Stock Markets have a major player called Reliance and Reliance Results have been good. So what if US goes down. Reliance is going up and State Bank of India the most important Indian Bank is doing wonders. How can Nifty go lower ?
If it does go down because of the US fall and to fill the weak Technical Structure of Gaps. It will be just a temporary thing. It would be foolish to be Bearish based on above two perfomances of excellence. Hence my call is Nifty will go up and touch your target of 5000.

maxmak,
Nice to know the the info of China from somebody who spent there for 5yrs.Basically i am a Trader ,i was adovacating 5k ,a Magic fig ,only to instill confidence on 'Neysayers Field Days'
in end Feb'07.
Now the scenario is different,it was 3500 levels of Nifty Fut,now mostly people believe this to be a correction but then people felt it to be a confirm Downtrend.
Nifty may reach 5k or go beyond or it may go down to 4k,i will trade each & everyday.
Going through your post i felt Proud to be an Indian.
Asish