Today's Buy Levels

rajaram.dilipkumar · #**1071** 30th October 2007, 11:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

My watch list for todays trade in Fut Nov series :-

OBC / TECHM / INDIACEMENT / INFY / PARSAVNATH / SIEMENS / BIOCON / RANBAXY

chalk and cheese

mine includes SAIL , BEML , axis ,MLL ,RPL ,RNRL , PUNJ and power grid...

adilsaleem · #**1072** 30th October 2007, 11:58 AM

Next one hour quite critical best to stay outside the market

uasish · #**1073** 30th October 2007, 01:00 PM

Well back to trade again.

uasish · #**1074** 30th October 2007, 03:18 PM

Nifty Fut 5mins upto 3.15

kuriako · #**1075** 30th October 2007, 05:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by adilsaleem

Next one hour quite critical best to stay outside the market

May I know why???

rajaram.dilipkumar · #**1076** 31st October 2007, 01:22 AM

Today the market was down with record volumes. This made me dig deeper in to niftys historical data and charts .Some excerpts :-
1. Todays fall was the 10th fall in the last 19 trading days . Whenever nifty has fallen , it has done so with high volumes . In a raising market usually the volumes will have to be higher on up days rather than down ( unlike what the nifty is doing right now ) .
2. Since mid-sep Niftys trendline has moved out of primary channel and is moving in a zone last seen during the 2000 tech burst . The long-term supports for nifty is at 4000 and short-intermediate support is at 5600,5230 and 4850.
3.Nifty ADX is moving down since oct 16 , 2007 and this bothers me .
4.Fundamentally speaking ( asish ignore this point .. i know you hate fundamentals) .... Nifty P/E crossed a six year resistance P/E of 22.01 on 24th september 2007 and has since moved to 26.01 ( as on yesterday ).If the six-year resistance becomes support then nifty should find support around 4960-4970 .Noted that the peak P/E for nifty ever was 28.47 ( 11th feb 2000). If that peak were to be the resistance then nifty will find resistance at 6422 .Also noted that it fell from the peak to reach a P/E of 12.30 on 21-sep-2001 ( present nifty equivalent of 2774 ).

Czar · #**1077** 31st October 2007, 08:53 AM

I agree rajaram distribution is on & may achieve 6.4k while doing the same but it surely is the final blow out rally of this bull market... we may have minor corrections but say around 21.5K i think a 2k correction will again happen & then the final rally might take this market to 24/25k

uasish · #**1078** 31st October 2007, 09:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajaram.dilipkumar

Today the market was down with record volumes. This made me dig deeper in to niftys historical data and charts .Some excerpts :-
1. Todays fall was the 10th fall in the last 19 trading days . Whenever nifty has fallen , it has done so with high volumes . In a raising market usually the volumes will have to be higher on up days rather than down ( unlike what the nifty is doing right now ) .
2. Since mid-sep Niftys trendline has moved out of primary channel and is moving in a zone last seen during the 2000 tech burst . The long-term supports for nifty is at 4000 and short-intermediate support is at 5600,5230 and 4850.
3.Nifty ADX is moving down since oct 16 , 2007 and this bothers me .
4.Fundamentally speaking ( asish ignore this point .. i know you hate fundamentals) .... Nifty P/E crossed a six year resistance P/E of 22.01 on 24th september 2007 and has since moved to 26.01 ( as on yesterday ).If the six-year resistance becomes support then nifty should find support around 4960-4970 .Noted that the peak P/E for nifty ever was 28.47 ( 11th feb 2000). If that peak were to be the resistance then nifty will find resistance at 6422 .Also noted that it fell from the peak to reach a P/E of 12.30 on 21-sep-2001 ( present nifty equivalent of 2774 ).

I dont hate Fundamentals rather it is like a ENT specialist venturing in Gynaecology,my pasture is out & out Price & it's derivative hence no point trying to understand Fundamentals but it does not mean that Fundamental never works ; it may or it does but it is not my cup of tea.

g_j · #**1079** 31st October 2007, 10:52 AM

Dear Rajaram,

You cannot compare the nifty PE as of 11 Feb 2000 and yesterday's. Till Dec 2004, nifty PE was calculated on the basis of last full financial year's EPS. Currently it is calculated on the basis of last 4 trailing quarters.

If you adjust the current PE for FY07 EPS, it would be higher than that during Feb 2000!

Cheers
GJ

PS: Uasish - Sorry for using your thread for my post.

Quote:

Originally Posted by rajaram.dilipkumar

Today the market was down with record volumes. This made me dig deeper in to niftys historical data and charts .Some excerpts :-
1. Todays fall was the 10th fall in the last 19 trading days . Whenever nifty has fallen , it has done so with high volumes . In a raising market usually the volumes will have to be higher on up days rather than down ( unlike what the nifty is doing right now ) .
2. Since mid-sep Niftys trendline has moved out of primary channel and is moving in a zone last seen during the 2000 tech burst . The long-term supports for nifty is at 4000 and short-intermediate support is at 5600,5230 and 4850.
3.Nifty ADX is moving down since oct 16 , 2007 and this bothers me .
4.Fundamentally speaking ( asish ignore this point .. i know you hate fundamentals) .... Nifty P/E crossed a six year resistance P/E of 22.01 on 24th september 2007 and has since moved to 26.01 ( as on yesterday ).If the six-year resistance becomes support then nifty should find support around 4960-4970 .Noted that the peak P/E for nifty ever was 28.47 ( 11th feb 2000). If that peak were to be the resistance then nifty will find resistance at 6422 .Also noted that it fell from the peak to reach a P/E of 12.30 on 21-sep-2001 ( present nifty equivalent of 2774 ).

uasish · #**1080** 31st October 2007, 02:35 PM

g_j,

This thread is always used by like-minded fellow traders,thks for your input.

Asish

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