Nifty headed for a fall next week??

I am attaching Nifty (weekly) chart. A falling hammer has been formed last week which looks some what like a doji. The last time two falling hammers (as you can see in the chart) were formed just before the may crash and before the december crash. So we might see a big fall next week.
This was the Technical side of things...

On the fundamental side, I dont know how many of you have observed this, but I have seen that in the last quarter majority of the promoters have been reducing their stake. When I used to check the quarterly results I used to check the Non promoters share holding. It has suddenly spiked in the last quarter which I think is an ominous sign. And this dilution in equity was not a result of raising capital!!!!

So may be 2007 might not be a "positive return" year for equities.

what do you guys think??

I disagree...

Though high inflation will act as a dampener, the prospects of sensex at 15k will probably offset that and could result in an overall bullish trend

The market loves nice, attractive milestones ... and 15000 certainly looks like one.

Having come so close to that level, it will be a pity to see it disappearing. Look for analogies in nature ... e.g interpersonal relations of some kind .. and u will see what I mean

AGILENT

But the infrastructure sector showing weakness is not a good sign. This has been the strongest sector in the entire bull run. Hope it's only temporary.

Regards,
Kalyan.

Hey! Rjs,

I think U r correct at certain extent tht NIFTY may crash next week.

Reasoning:

Last rally either can be sound bull rally or distribution rally.... I interprete as distribution rally b'coz of below mentioned reason.

If upcoming budget is going to be really good and mkt frndly then mkt has to crash before budget. Otherwise mkt will crash after budget.

Assumption 1 tht budget is not gng to be good,

in this case mkt will crash after budget and distribution rally will be seen after budget. After budget there will be hipe everywhere abt mkt and in tht rally distribution will happen. Once distribution will be over, mkt will crash.

Asuumption 2 tht budget going to be good.

In this case mkt has to crash before budget and start it's upword journey after budget. If we assume this as our prefered scenario, currently we r into distribution rally and tht seems to be over now.

Apart from this lot many quality IPOs coming, investor require lot of money to subscribe. Assumming tht investors are liquidating their position, currently rally is developed as distribution rally.....

These are my assumptions based on my own logic.... It may not be correct! and it may be correct!

Senior members kindly give their opinion....

Todays fall was on expected lines. But we have to see if this slide continues tomorrow. Much will depend on global cues.

Good call RJS .. hope u made some money

Keep it up

AGILENT

Thank you Agilent. Well i surely did make few k's .

Hey! Rjs,

How u doing????? Well, till date I never took candlestick pattern seriously and never cared to learn it. But the way, U predicted mkt fall, it made me thinking about learning candlestick. Infact I have started reading it..... Till date I was doing all my analysis based on traditional TA....

Well, How do U interprete last day's Nifty formation???? I think it was Doji...

Yes its a doji. And doji indicates reversal in trend. Any ways the global cues are good today, so a bounce back is likely today. But I still think we will end the week in red.

Hi! Rjs....

Can U do me a favor???? If you can consolidate all the candlestick patterns in one document and mail it to me???? It will be of great help to me in learning candlestick.....

My mail ID is [email protected]