Rally ends and ready for a Crash Land!!!

aroonsankar · #61 4th April 2007, 01:19 PM

Dear agilent, Attaching S&p chart which showing the similar trend interpreted by Deron M. Wagner, Founder,Morpheus Trading Group in a downtrend market. Clearly indicating h &s holds good in a bearish market too.

RSI · #62 4th April 2007, 04:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aroonsankar

Hello agilent& iyer, Thanks for ur comments. I agree that the rising wedge doesn't look like a classic one. From my exp., i see the classic wedges (with its upward line also rising) in a bullish market. While in a downtrend market, its difficult to plot a wedge with upward line rising; for convenience, it considers as triangle.The name only differs, not views.

Refer : http://stockstoshop.com/wedges.htm

Now HEAD AND SHOULDERS: I said, "nifty may bounce back to 3750 levels, make a HEAD AND SHOULDER pattern, once again try to test the upper edge of the RISING WEDGE, then fall to 3210." Which means that the right shoulder is in making, i believe which can be seen clearly in few days with a slightly rising neckline.

A bullish or bearish trend is very relative one. Nifty couldn't break below 200 day ma convincingly yet. So someone gone long on 3550 levels can assume he is in slightly uptrend. I believe no harm in ploting an h&s there.

I believe it is the probability of each move that counts and these patterns will really help to measure those probabilities

I disagree with iyers tat comment that 'no two points to draw lower trendline', instead i see 3 points.

Aroonsankar

Hi Aroonsankar,
Thanks for your frank view on the subject. Well, I shall go through the materials available at the website quoted in your post. So far, what I had learned is that head and shoulder pattern is a trend reversal pattern. So I was under the impression that as we are in a downtrend now, we must be looking out for inverted head and shoulder. Thanks for the new information given by you.

With regard to my comment as to "no two points to draw lower trendline", I was referring to the trendline drawn by you from the bottom of the last candle in the chart posted by you. "Wedge" as far as I have understood, are two upward sloping parallel trendlines. I think you are referring as three points in drawing trendline to the trendline starting from the bottom. Will that trendline and the other trendline connecting the same bottom and top make a wedge? I doubt.
Regards
R. S. Iyer

Agilent · #63 4th April 2007, 08:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RSI

Hi Aroonsankar,
Thanks for your frank view on the subject. Well, I shall go through the materials available at the website quoted in your post. So far, what I had learned is that head and shoulder pattern is a trend reversal pattern. So I was under the impression that as we are in a downtrend now, we must be looking out for inverted head and shoulder. Thanks for the new information given by you.

With regard to my comment as to "no two points to draw lower trendline", I was referring to the trendline drawn by you from the bottom of the last candle in the chart posted by you. "Wedge" as far as I have understood, are two upward sloping parallel trendlines. I think you are referring as three points in drawing trendline to the trendline starting from the bottom. Will that trendline and the other trendline connecting the same bottom and top make a wedge? I doubt.
Regards
R. S. Iyer

RS
Parallel lines will not meet hence do not form a wedge .

But I do support yr comments on the H&S being a reversal pattern... what is the trend (primary or secondary) getting reversed according to Aroon ?

AGILENT

reachjesal · #64 4th April 2007, 09:47 PM

what if infosys deliver stupendous results and guidance ! then the whole scenario would change my friend .... so in such a catch 22 situation would u still hold 3750 as a level to watch out for ? your thoughts aroonankar ?
thanks

uasish · #65 5th April 2007, 01:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reachjesal

what if infosys deliver stupendous results and guidance ! then the whole scenario would change my friend .... so in such a catch 22 situation would u still hold 3750 as a level to watch out for ? your thoughts aroonankar ?
thanks

By now i am convined nothing happens after the event,rather the charts foretell & events follow,hence can we see "Infosys" chart telling us anything ?
As infy is a heavy weight & sentiment driver ,it has got an effect,no doubt,
but Aroonshanker is just following his charts,he is clear about his level's,where
to change stance , if need arises for him,he will just follow his charts nothing else.

Asish

Agilent · #66 5th April 2007, 08:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reachjesal

what if infosys deliver stupendous results and guidance ! then the whole scenario would change my friend .... so in such a catch 22 situation would u still hold 3750 as a level to watch out for ? your thoughts aroonankar ?
thanks

Good observation.

It would affect the Minor trend, but may not be able to sway the Secondary or Primary trends in place right now.(To those who are unfamiliar : Read any TA book for the meanings of these terms)

Thats because there are strong factors underpinning the current market ... namely inflation and the continuing rate hikes. Infy's last qtr results will not be able to offset these factors which have a bearing on corporate outlook for the future

Remember the markets always move in anticipation of the future

AGILENT

uasish · #67 5th April 2007, 08:40 AM

Hi,
Observations:
1)Sensex covered its Gap 12832.70 Low of 29th covered yesterday H= 12835.36.
2)Nifty Fut ,Wkly,low trendline is breached but closed above ,for to-day has to close above 3733 to stay bullish.

INFY is not my deciding factor this is what Nifty fut tells me ,chances are i may be humbeled
by mkt ,like always but this is what i will do,INFY NO INFY,FORGET INFY

3701 is crucial , below 3689 & 3684.80 i will short with 3706 SL, Low trendline support = 3601 (i will cover all shorts & wait)

Asish

Agilent · #68 5th April 2007, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Agilent

Good observation.

It would affect the Minor trend, but may not be able to sway the Secondary or Primary trends in place right now.(To those who are unfamiliar : Read any TA book for the meanings of these terms)

Thats because there are strong factors underpinning the current market ... namely inflation and the continuing rate hikes. Infy's last qtr results will not be able to offset these factors which have a bearing on corporate outlook for the future

Remember the markets always move in anticipation of the future

AGILENT

Reachjesal

u may have missed out my edited post

So here it is again
AGILENT

uasish · #69 5th April 2007, 09:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by reachjesal

what if infosys deliver stupendous results and guidance ! then the whole scenario would change my friend .... so in such a catch 22 situation would u still hold 3750 as a level to watch out for ? your thoughts aroonankar ?
thanks

INFY
.................................
Formed an island in the chart ,however may rise to-day.

2001 / 2038 / 2136
1990 (Strng Supp)/ 1938 / 1899 (this may not reach)

Asish

uasish · #70 5th April 2007, 10:43 AM

"below 3689 & 3684.80 i will short with 3706 " Low till now is 3696.30,hence cant short now 3705.90 (above 3701) ,watching.

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