Rally ends and ready for a Crash Land!!!

jatayoo · #11 12th February 2007, 09:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by swagat86

2k on nifty looks SEXY to me.

The INDICIES will be trading at a PE of 3 if this happens.NO WAY I THINK.
......WHAT has happened is the global inflation worries backed by a 6.4% domestic inflation that made the RBI hike the Repo rate.Some decline is in order as the banks have also raised lending rates to around 12%.So the interest rate cycle is coming in with a time lag.IN May 2006 it was the same story
LOOK out for irrational corrections by different stocks.

aca_trader · #12 12th February 2007, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uasish

Hi,
Whenever there is a steep correction i have heard all kind of opinions.Many a time in past this excessive apprehension clouded my emotion & lost good oppurtunities.Tell me who amongst us has not seen the shooting star of friday , the advance/decline , the negative Dow , the high PCR & the todays gap down opening,all of us was anticipating this to happen.Now make an exploration for last 500 days with 2 criteria close greater than previous close & close less than previous close you will see yourself that out of last 500 days say for Aban it is 246 (c >ref(c,-1) & 254 (c< ref(c,-1).So in last 500 days Aban has given only 8 negative days ,do your chart of Aban corroborates that ? Hence think clearly to focus with a Stock specific attitude to find which one has completed or to complete its downward 5th & thank mkt that it has again given you an oppurtunity to enter your Dream stocks,as like all prudent trader today you are again at almost 80% cash.Hear all the opinions but judge with a clear mind where & when to short or long.Actually i have lost many such oppurtunities in my earlier years of trading.
Asish

Gr88 Post!

Best Regards,
--Ashish

swagat86 · #13 12th February 2007, 10:22 PM

i dont think the real correction has come as yet. This is just a jerk.

Watch the channel on weekly giving support.

uasish · #14 12th February 2007, 11:38 PM

Hi,
Many a times (like today's correction of Nifty) in the past ,i have faced a situation ,whether this is the begining of a correction/impulse ? There are ample known method like trendline,channel ,XTL,JTI etc etc.One of the simplest code i use in Metastock (amongst others of mine) is as following:
.............................................8.... ..............................
a:= mov(c,3,e) - mov(c,8,e);
mov(a,21,e) ;
.........................................8........ .............................
with this you will find (change the chart to weekly) indicator's reading is 71.0794 & that on 1/12/07 was 70.4698 ,hence to me the earlier low is not broken,same in daily & monthly ,it is yet to break ,if tommorow this is broken then only i may initiate a short position on wednesday.You will find this simple thing will protect you from being on the wrong side.
Asish

uasish · #15 13th February 2007, 12:06 AM

Hi,
I have bought Bajaj Hindusthan today.In my decision making process (last saturday the above indicator was one amongst the others).Get does not tell us when 5th Down is going to end (though Pitchfork is used by many to project) but you will find as on saturday that the indicator value of 12/4/06 may be breached today,moreover the weekly & monthly is at rock bottom,hence i utilised 10% of my fund today in cash mkt (becoz it is exteremly risky catching a falling knife in Futures).Let us see what happens,the reason for posting this is simple ,i firmly believe my own indicators(my earlier posts code).
Asish

aroonsankar · #16 25th February 2007, 09:52 PM

Expecting small support around 3825 tomorrow.

uasish · #17 26th February 2007, 07:37 AM

Hi,
Nifty for coming few days Res:= 4052.45 & Supp:= 3888.65.
Asish

Linus · #18 26th February 2007, 10:05 AM

Dear Aroonsankar,

Good morning to you sir, and congrats on a very good call!

Regards,

ss

ravi1967 · #19 26th February 2007, 11:42 AM

hai all, heard from reliable analyst that leading operators are creating a situation of build up of shorts and then trapping shorts after budget.so expect a sudden U turn after budget around 2nd week of March.Traders beware and stay away from Market till then as Volatility wll be high.
Happy trading!!!
bye
ravi

aroonsankar · #20 28th February 2007, 06:09 PM

As nifty going down like a falling knife, no support is visible in near term. The first target stands around 3250 (62% retrace) as said on my first post. Anyways, One should analyse the total f&o short position and pcr to measure the negative sentiment. Its time to cover the short when the most bullish traders turns bearish and starts to shortsell. That situation has not come yet. So enjoy ur short....

Aroonsankar

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