The strength of this bull market

Day before yesterday, the CCI announced fines of Rs 6700 crores on cement companies. This effectively wipes out anywhere from 6 months to a year of profits for most of the companies! And more importantly, prevents them from doing the things that allowed them to make the huge profits in the first place. Obviously, this was a big dampener for markets.

But the market just shrugged this off, and if you hadn't seen the news, the move in cement stocks would have seemed like just another trading day!

In telecoms however, it wasnt just another trading day. Reliance Jio's announcements to make Voice calls free, and slashing data costs almost 80% took the wind out of Telecom Stocks. Even large players like Bharti crashed 7%, with Idea dropping over 10%! But there was negligible impact on Nifty.

All of this signals that there is significant steam in this bull market.

Fasten your seat belts and hold on tight. In the next month, the FCNR deposits from 2013 mature, and a lot of that money will find its way to Indian equities.

For many years, Deepavali has been a quiet affair on Dalal Street. This year, however, it is time for fireworks!

Nice..thank for your information

Thank you Very much

FCNR deposits may be maturing... But what about the effect of US elections that are happening around the same time? Won't that lead to temporary caution till the results are out?

Furthermore, this article from Moneylife seems to paint a different picture.

Let me address the second aspect first. It is not just MoneyLife - starting from RBI governor onwards, this concern is there, and even Raghuram Rajan has mentioned the steps taken to ensure liquidity. So it is not like RBI is unprepared and sleeping.

That being said, these investors invested in India in Sep 2013 - probably the worst possible time to invest in India. Do you think they are going to pull out the money from India when situation is so much better? And even if they pull it out, where are they going to invest it? Debt? Some other equity market? Property? Gold? Clearly, for India focussed investors (which these FCNR holders obviously are), Indian markets are the best avenue today.

The current spurt in markets is probably already being caused by the initial waves of the FCNR redemptions - where the investors are positioning themselves for maturity, borrowing money and investing, because they know this borrowed money can be easily repaid in a few weeks post maturity.

But the real wave of money will come towards end of this month and early next month.

As for US elections - yes there is uncertainty. But from an Indian markets perspective, it really doesn't matter. In fact, Donald Trump winning is a major positive for India - because Trump is big time anti-China, anti-Mexico, anti-Europe, etc. His thinking is more along the Brexit lines. Considering that India's strengths largely lie in domestic growth, and considering Donald Trump's business prospects in India, I think India is the ideal partner for Donald Trump.

We don't threaten the US with our exports. Even our IT exports benefit the US significantly, because we import as much IT hardware products as we export - across phones, laptops, networking equipment, etc.

If Hillary wins, it might be business as usual - but if Trump wins, it could be a major boost for India - after the initial hiccup in global markets, India will emerge as clear beneficiary.

Protrade, your analysis and writings are pretty incisive, well researched and unusually revealing. Do you have a blog where we can read more about your views? You clearly have a lot of ideas in the investment finance space that some of us will find useful.

Also, if I may be so bold to ask, what's your background? Are you a trader, analyst or a financial maverick of some kind?

Anyway, thanks and keep up the good work.

I used to be a trader in a Wall Street firm, and later on in a hedge fund. I quit the trading business in 2009, post the global crisis, and since then am back in the IT side of things.

At the moment, I am building a product that will allow Retail Investors to operate in a manner closer to Professional Traders. The thing is, when you are a professional trader, you have access to so much information and so many tools, especially for Portfolio management and risk management - which simply are not available for non-professionals. Am trying to package some of these services into an iPad based offering, and make it available to retail traders. iPad because it has a large screen, is quite powerful, lasts whole day, and can get going instantly.

Great!!! If you could share what product you are building (if it is not a trade secret) you can get feedback that maybe good or bad, but will give you a different perspective of how other people think....

It isnt really a trade secret. I like to think of it as a poor man's Bloomberg Terminal - but I guess I am being a megalomaniac in thinking this! But can't really share feature set on a public forum yet.

Think of it as absolutely everything you would possibly want for Pre-Trade and Post-Trade. It is not designed for the average retail trader - but more for the sophisticated retail trader. Someone who is comfortable writing Python Scripts, someone who can change parameters for Technical Indicators, or wants mechanisms where he can write his own technical indicators. Someone who can understand Greeks, and What-if Scenarios, etc. Whose Trading Portfolio use "Multiple Strategies" - and could even have the same instrument long in some strategies, and short in some other strategies.

But without support for actual trading (yet), and without real time market data (yet). I am actively looking for ways in which I can support trading and real time market data also.

Impressive bio there, bro. And your goal seems like something a lot of us can benefit from. Count me in when you're ready to go live. (I'm willing to learn Python and scripting if it helps me trade better).

Truth be told, there's a serious lack of professional trading tools for retail traders of all hues and experiences. They're either too expensive (but only middlingly helpful) or too simple (and subjective to the developer's unformed, and often dangerous, biases). Both of these approaches have flaws with the resulting tendency of causing doubts in the minds of traders and forcing them onto an endless search for the next-shiny-system that will give them trading consistency.

Also for a lot of us, data subscriptions eat up a significant chunk of money. It's a sad fact when you really think about it because data on its own (however accurate) is still a raw ingredient. It's not "intelligence" or something that will give you directional cues without extensive processing, or again, subjective analysis.

The real challenge is to distill disparate trading ideas, inputs and influences into an objective, coherent yet user-friendly format that gives traders a quantifiable edge. If your app can do that then more power to you.

I'm a commodity trader myself, so I hope you include a little something for our kind as well