Market Cycle Dates

Contra

Well-Known Member
#1
Watch out for these forthcoming days for changes in market structure and/or trend:
* February 22, 27, 28
* March 10, 11, 21, 22, 28, 29

Previous turning points fell on these dates:
* February 9, 10, 11, 12
* January 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, 14, 15, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22

Things may not happen "exactly" on these dates but "around" them (+/- 1 day variance). Either way, these dates have significance in the context of monthly market cycles, turning points and confirmation (or rejection) of price movement.
 

Contra

Well-Known Member
#2
Watch out for these forthcoming days for changes in market structure and/or trend:
* February 22, 27, 28
Feb 22-23 recap
----------------

Feb 22 -- Markets began the week in the green but constant bearish pressure prevented indices from soaring on Monday. Pre-budget session cautiousness also persisted. On the currency front, Rupee hit record low of 68.91 per dollar in the offshore market.

Feb 23 -- Markets were expected to rally after a fall but they continued falling most of the trading session. Sensex fell by 378 points / Nifty fell by 125 points, temporarily breaking down 7100 / Bank Nifty tanked 376 points. 49 out of 50 Nifty stocks end in red. All sectoral indices also end in red.
 

Contra

Well-Known Member
#5
Nifty will be out of the woods only if it crosses and closes beyond 7842. It's a critical upside resistance that can cap or stall a market rally.

Once it does that, it could face another hurdle at 7938

The range between 7842 and 7938 is important for bullish consolidation.

If Nifty can decisively break both levels then there's very little stopping it from reaching 8000+ levels.

But if those levels fail, then we can see a correction to a mean range between 7535 to 7547

If that mean range fails then we can see a downside selloff till 6593

The bottom for this market has widened from 6760 to 6590

Topside is between 7840 and 7940

 

natjay

Well-Known Member
#7
My guess is the mean level will be breached based on fundamentals.

Most of the bullish trigger data has already been released so it's largely up to market forces to decide the fate of Nifty. Now unless we hear something like GST being passed, the next round of clear bullishness (or bearishness) will depend on earnings, elections and monsoon prospects.

Also, technically, there was a bearish engulfing candle on Nifty last week pointing to short term bearish sentiment.
 

Contra

Well-Known Member
#8
About 16 days ago, I said that Nifty's mean level is at 7547
Today, Nifty closed at the level (7546.45)

Nifty today first tested the mean range below 7547 by making an intraday low of 7542 and bounced off it. It finally broke that level by EoD, taking out that important support, and also confirming its validity.

As of today's calculations, further bullishness is possible only if Nifty closes (a) firstly above 7715, and then (b) above 7773

But if Nifty goes lower from here then the following support levels will come into play:

S1 = 7462
S2 = 7266
S3 = 7071
S4 = 6950

Watch out for action at these levels to confirm if the bull market still has legs, or if the selloff will continue.

 

Contra

Well-Known Member
#9
Re: Significance of 7715 for Bullish Continuation

For those who want to know the significance of 7715 for bullish continuation, the reason is -- 7715 is the common Nifty level through which all of the major market movements (both upwards & downwards) have happened in the past 5-6 months.

Going by the chart below (March/April area), it's obvious that Nifty is having a hard time staying above 7715 for extended amounts of time. This points to bullish exhaustion, though that can change quickly if positive news comes in.

That's why 7715 is one of the levels to watch, as I've been saying since 25 Feb.