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#1
31st October 2007, 05:41 PM
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Crude Oil -Natural Gas
Crude oil falls and fall hard yesterday 3.20USD+ on Goldman trigger some selling/profit taking on long-position which leads others to follow. To those who have shorted as recommended yesterday should be taking own decision today, either to risk holding it and expect storage to be bearish for crude, or sell it and short it again later when price rebound (expecting a light rebound, still it is all depends on storage report). On today storage report we should see a build ranging from 500,000 to 1 Mil barrels. A build adds more pressure to oil price which has been overdone recently. A draw on report (unlikely) will trigger a quick and huge spike on price supported by short covering. After 10.30AM EST storage report on 2PM there will be Fed rate decision meeting where most forecaster predict a rate cut by 0.25%, I personally expect Fed to have the rate on pause.(Watch out for this, as this event might trigger some profit takings on late trading session) Crude oil is now up 0.75USD trading at 95.50USD
Natural gas gets first hit of cold forecast and rise yesterday ignoring steep fall on Crude oil. I personally don't expect this trend to remain for long, unless Thursday storage report unexpected draw or much less than forecasted. Estimate storage would be a build of 55Bcf. Today rate and Crude oil storage report would affect Natural gas movement, so watch out for both release. Good luck trading Events to monitor: Storage-Build-, Rate-Pause or a cut of 0.25% as expected(with other bearish events occurs)- and Turkey-Iraq-Resolve or positive talks in progress between PKK, Turkey, US and Iraq- all bearish for crude would lead crude into a correction which may fall back to low 80USD before year ends. 
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