Although there were two good economic data points Monday, the market was slammed. The Dow closed down -258 points, while the S&P500 closed down -32.19 points or -2.85%.
The first report to be released was the construction spending data. It was expected to be another negative reading of -0.2% but surprised all with +1.4%. Bloomberg said the followingConstruction made a comeback in August, largely from the public sector although major private components also gained. Construction spending in August rebounded 1.4 percent in August, following a 1.4 percent drop in July. The rise in August came in much higher than the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent decrease.
The latest month's rebound was led by a 3.1 percent jump in public sector outlays, following a 1.5 percent dip in July. Private residential construction spending made a partial rebound of 0.7 percent, following a 3.2 percent fall the prior month. Private nonresidential outlays edged up 0.2 percent after a 0.3 percent advance the prior month.
The real surprise, however, was the ISM data. Many were expecting a negative print that would all but guarantee another recession is coming around the corner. Consensus was 50.5 and a reading under 50.0 is recessionary; however, the data point was 51.6.
Bloomberg reported Employment picked up and production picked up, but orders in the manufacturing sector are flat at the very best, according to September data from the Institute for Supply Management whose composite index came in at 51.6 vs Econoday expectations for 50.5. The employment component rose two full points to 53.8 to indicate a tangible increase in hiring. This is in line with a tangible increase in production which rose more than 2-1/2 points to 51.2.
Now the bad news in the report. New orders are under 50 for a third month in a row, though just barely at 49.6 in a reading that hints at fractional contraction in final demand. Manufacturers, waiting for new orders to pick up, have been chewing through back orders in recent months and continued to do so in September as backlog orders fell 4-1/2 points to a 41.5 level that indicates sizable contraction.
So why did the market tank despite the decent news? Greece. Once again the fools in the banking industry and global political houses are realizing theyre closer to a major Greek haircut.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called experts.
Larry Levin
Founder & President- Trading Advantage
The first report to be released was the construction spending data. It was expected to be another negative reading of -0.2% but surprised all with +1.4%. Bloomberg said the followingConstruction made a comeback in August, largely from the public sector although major private components also gained. Construction spending in August rebounded 1.4 percent in August, following a 1.4 percent drop in July. The rise in August came in much higher than the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent decrease.
The latest month's rebound was led by a 3.1 percent jump in public sector outlays, following a 1.5 percent dip in July. Private residential construction spending made a partial rebound of 0.7 percent, following a 3.2 percent fall the prior month. Private nonresidential outlays edged up 0.2 percent after a 0.3 percent advance the prior month.
The real surprise, however, was the ISM data. Many were expecting a negative print that would all but guarantee another recession is coming around the corner. Consensus was 50.5 and a reading under 50.0 is recessionary; however, the data point was 51.6.
Bloomberg reported Employment picked up and production picked up, but orders in the manufacturing sector are flat at the very best, according to September data from the Institute for Supply Management whose composite index came in at 51.6 vs Econoday expectations for 50.5. The employment component rose two full points to 53.8 to indicate a tangible increase in hiring. This is in line with a tangible increase in production which rose more than 2-1/2 points to 51.2.
Now the bad news in the report. New orders are under 50 for a third month in a row, though just barely at 49.6 in a reading that hints at fractional contraction in final demand. Manufacturers, waiting for new orders to pick up, have been chewing through back orders in recent months and continued to do so in September as backlog orders fell 4-1/2 points to a 41.5 level that indicates sizable contraction.
So why did the market tank despite the decent news? Greece. Once again the fools in the banking industry and global political houses are realizing theyre closer to a major Greek haircut.
Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called experts.
Larry Levin
Founder & President- Trading Advantage