Food for Thought........!

Hi!

Let us have a look at the daily EOD candle chart for spot Nifty, wherein we see that since the beginning of this calendar year, that the spot Nifty has been mostly remaining range bound within the two horizontal black dotted lines. Whenever it has gone above this channel, the result was a formation of lower tops. And in all, we see three such tops.

Whenever the spot Nifty has gone below this channel, during all the three incidences that it was very quick in getting back into the channel.







The last week’s candle has a long lower wick, there by indicating that the spot Nifty tried to go lower, but could not sustain. The Red trend line which is trending down has come to a position around 5690, whereas the spot Nifty has closed around 5581 on Friday 15th July.

Therefore, one need not worry about the lower side of the channel unless the spot Nifty violates the low of 5177 on closing basis. On Friday 15th July 2011, the Nifty did not even try to cross the upper black dotted line.







This has left a gap of over 100 points for the spot Nifty to cross the Red trend line and close above it.

In my opinion, if the daily spot Nifty does not break below 5540 in early next week, but firms up, then there is a strong chance for the spot Nifty to make an attempt to cross the Red line. The main positivity in this weekly chart is the closing of the weekly candle above all the three major indicators, such as 10 weeks DEMA Red line, 100 weeks DEMA Blue line & 200 weeks DEMA Green line.

Therefore, I doubt if there is much of a downside left for the Nifty, But for a positive confirmation, the weekly candle needs to close above the high of the previous week, which was around 5740.

That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong.

@ debdeeps

There is an afl made by Mr Gorden Rose, who has named it after himself. This afl works out the various pivots and does the calculations for the buy/sell arrows. Needless to say, that the arrows appear only after passing of one extra day. Original afl had used simple MAs which I changed to EMAs while making some more additions/alterations.

I am attaching the original afl.

@ umeshmandal,
In a falling market, if the volumes also start falling, it is definitely not a bearish sign.

Cheers!
SS

Expecting experts view on this.

Dear SS Sir, I sent you a PM. Pls check.

1. The attachment is missing.

2. Even if we (me included) get the AFL, the bottom quote says it all.

Sorry,

Not used to attach files. The file with .afl extention was not being accepted and I was required to change it to .txt

So, here is the Gorden Rose afl attached after renaming it as Gorden Rose.txt.


@ Murtaza,

One needs to keep making alterations in afls. That is the only way one can find more about Amibroker, which helps in knowing more about the TA. I keep on doing one or the other change, so it would only be proper to give the original version to everyone interested.

Cheers!
SS

4:40 and still no food .... I'm hungry


Ohh .. its not because of 'no post' rather the status quo maintains itself ... thats why ....

Hi!

In my message dated 10th July, I had written that –

“The Friday’s candle has taken support from the 38.2% Fib level around 5658, but early next week, there are chances that the spot Nifty may fall to the level of 50% Fib level around 5570. I doubt if it would go to as low as the 61.8% Fib level around 5480.”

The Friday referred was 8th July 2011. I had also said that –

“And if this fall does take place, we shall find that the Red Down trending line on the weekly chart has once again offered a strong resistance. If not, then the weekly candle can be above this Red Trend line, so that the spot Nifty then smoothly moves towards it’s next target around 5945.”

The current weekly charts shows that –






Even now, the weekly candle has not crossed the Red Trend line to go above it. The spot Nifty did NOT violate 5480 so far on the lower side and is NOT likely to do so in the near future. Hence the target of 5945 stands. However, the weekly candle should have crossed the Red Trend line, and that could be a concern.

Simultaneously, the daily EOD Chart for spot Nifty shows that while the Nifty remained within the channel formed by the two horizontal black dotted lines, it convincingly came out of this channel on Friday 22nd July 2011.






Now the region around 5650 is likely to offer a strong resistance because not only the highs of 5th, 6th, 11th & 14th July fall in this region but also the low of 8th July is in this region.

Therefore, the entire zone of 5650-5700 is likely to offer a good resistance, and only in the event the spot Nifty surges ahead to close in the vicinity of 5700, that the up move shall get confirmed.

Alternatively, a less likely possibility is for the spot Nifty to get back in the channel shown by two horizontal dotted black lines, in which case, Nifty shall take some more time in resuming it’s up trend.

That is what my opinion is, and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

murtaza bhai,
u seem to b busy these days..
we dnt see any reco from u these days ..

Dear SS, No foods for this weekend? We are hungry.

SS is busy preparing chappan bhog !