Food for Thought........!

S S

Well-Known Member
Again a goof up about the targets. And the markets flow down rapidly as if the Hudson river water is throwing itself over the Nigara Falls.

But one difference though. The Oct futures, that were all along at a premium, throughout the fall for last six months or more, changed to a discount over spot Nifty.

This is an indication of the Blood on the Streets. The bottom is NOT far off now, and we do NOT need to speculate about it any more.

Once again the sign, that the Diwali and days thereafter are about to bring in the Hopes back in the minds of Investors-Traders, as the market appears to be getting ready for a 'U' turn.

Cheers! Good Luck!
SS
 

S S

Well-Known Member
My subjective view:=

Plz start looking weekly charts,
any sharp bounce is another sign of Bear Rally,
Mkt not going to rise in a hurry.
Yeah... I know. In fact, yesterday, I was scratching my head, when I saw the similarity between the Nifty fall of Jan 08, after it had reached the all time high, and the recent fall of DJ, both on weekly charts.

Contrary to my initial belief few months ago, the pattern now shows that once the markets get bottomed out, the movement thereafter is going to be sideways, slanting upwards..... could be one of the three Flats, as per EW analysis.

My worry is.... after the sideways movement is over, are we 'in' for yet another calamity to take markets down once again...?

Considering the complete charts, this is a rarity..... but even the rarity is worrysome.

Cheers!
SS
 

S S

Well-Known Member
Possibility I


Possibility II

The sub-wave iii may turn out to be the longest of the five wave structure, and may come down almost to 3235 level.
.
For the Development after the completion of the five wave structure, it shall be too early to comment in this scenario.
.
Hi!

From my message posted on 6th Sept 08, wherein, I had expressed two possibilities. As the conditions stood then, I was expecting the Possibility-I to occur.

How wrong I was. It is the 2nd Possibility, that has resulted.

This has forced me to consider the wave structure on monthly charts, that speak differently all together.. removes any and every wishful thinking balance in ones mind.

The attached chart is for Monthly Spot Nifty as on 24th Oct 08. The wave iii is expected to be the longest of the five waves forming the C part of the decline. And hence, assuming [repeat assuming] that the iii level has been reached, that the wave iv may now start upwards.

Contrary to my initial expectations [based on the Probability-I occurrence, that has NOT happened] the wave iv shall move upwards to a maximum of 3000+ region, to be followed by the downward wave v.

On the monthly chart, therefore, the target for this iv is expected to reach within a month or two, and another month or two for the completion of the segment v

This takes us to Feb-Mar 2009 period, when people are busy working out their tax liabilities to pay the advance tax. I have no idea, how it shall be for many, this year, regarding the applicability of advance tax payment in March 09. I am still required to pay the advance tax Thank god.

So, the initial time calculation for a turn around by Diwali 2008, has been blown to pieces. Sorry Czar I considered the wrong possibility as the more probable one. My mistake.

I have tried to show the arrows for the destinations of iv and v which are vague. At this moment, I am unable to fix exact targets for these two positions.

And after having worked out all this, I would still like to add, that this all is my opinion, and I could be wrong. :)

Cheers and Happy Diwali to every reader of this message and every member of this Forum.

SS
 
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Cactus

Active Member
I repeat the words of my bro :

"The indicators & Technicals should be used only as informative & not in way of confirmation.

The charts are only reflection of the index/stock behaviour and past performance but not the hardcore ground for future."


cheers.:)

I don't understand E-Wave.........anyway......., have a look at nikkai......
it was trading near 39 K .......if u calcuate 61% at comes to 24000 means it should never go below 15K but now it is trading at 8500.

Another example.........adlabs........few months back it was trading near 1800 now after reducing 61% you find a level of 700 but it is trading at 300.

Few more examples can be traced. Now what happened to fibonnaci/eliot or gann theroies.......?


No matter I don't understand EW/Fib/Gann but what I understand is "When market is driven by news/emotions/manuplations.......it don't respect any support or resitance."

BTw.........every natural number......the the base of fibonnaci......starts and end on zero.:)

I don't say it will break but ......why it can't go below 2478.......?

Cheers.
 

S S

Well-Known Member
An Alternate Thought.. A Wishful Thinking.?

See the attached chart for Weekly Nifty, and it gives a different view point all together.

From the high of 6357 on 11th Jan 2008 to 3790 close of 11th July 2008, the Fib levels are drawn, which indicate a ray of hope.

The 161.80% level occurs at around the low of today.

If one draws the Fib between the all time high of 6357 to todays low of 2252, then the 61.80% level occurs at around 3790, thereby finalising the position of the end to wave A at 3790. Then the B and C waves automatically fall into their own places.

Does it mean that the Muhurat Trading due tomorrow shall turn atleast the Indian Markets UP.? And that there is no more down trend to occur in the immediate future? Time shall tell.

Wishing that this wishful thinking becomes a reality and Investor faith is re-instated in the Indian Stock Markets,

SS
 
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C

Czar

Guest
Donno where I read it but the last bull market peak should not overlap this bull mkt low, your views on this SS ?
 

S S

Well-Known Member
Donno where I read it but the last bull market peak should not overlap this bull mkt low, your views on this SS ?
Czar :

Two things.
The last Bull market peak shall definately act as a strong support. But we have seen many supports being broken, so one cannot be 100% sure.

Yesterday's candle has a long wick at the bottom. This means that there was a pressure to take the prices down, that did NOT succeed. Similar candles now should appear more, which have a longer lower wick.... finally leading to a 'hammer' , which could be a turn around for the markets, unless yesterday's candle itself acts as a hammer :)

In all probability, the Indian market is likely to turn around before the US markets. Lets wait and watch.

Ashish :

The way yesterday's candle has made appearance with respect to the BB & KB, that today's candle, even for a short duration of the Muhurat Trading session, should move a little upward to try to be above the BB. Effectively, the lower B Band may be going through it.

My opinions and I could be wrong :D
Cheers & Happy Diwali.
SS
 

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