Nifty Futures Trading

Now, Nifty is within striking distance of the strong downward sloping trend line...

Will the momentum, with which nifty spot is now moving upwards, be strong enough to break this trendline...???

Let's see & maybe we'll get the answer in this week...

Will not break this trendline atleast on Monday

usually such high end resistance are crossed on 3rd attempt, if they are to cross..

Though inflation is discounted (rather MODERATED in PC's language) and Crude coming down with political certainty is settled now,there is a good scope for bullish rally.Anyway EMOTIONS have no role to play in Stock Markets.Have a look at your own chart.

Attached Images

nifty.jpg (57.2 KB, 42 views)

well, 5000 is way out of reach, as of now, buddy...

in EOD charts, after 3800 to around 4540 and then a cooldown till ard 4150, and from there a pullback to 4400..... this has made a HL (4150), now spot has to make a HH by crossing 4540 levels to confirm that this is not just a pullback, but a good bullish uptrend...
and if i understood saint sir's method/dow method, 4150 should not break before 4540 is broken

this means, it first has to negotiate the downward trendline resistance at ard 4425, and then previous high of 4540. Past 4550, a logical target of 4650 (the immediate next peak) can be seen...



one more thing i would like to ask the seniors/wave analysts... i have read this somewhere that a "C" downwave/correction till around 4250 may be possible before 4500...
i have no idea abt this.... can someone guide me abt this possibility of "C" wave...??? or should be simply ignored...??? (well, i m not paying that much attention to a thing which i dont understand)

hi Sunil, check the marked trendline, do not discard this possibility if we break 4430... cause as I mentioned earlier 1 bull phase will throw off all bears in a bear market...

Like last time i suggest ; you to make this request to Traderji via pm.

Sunil,

After trying with own money in ALL popular indicator/osc /theories for last 9 yrs,available in Public domain,i find many of them Work 50% of the time.
As you ;Look at RSI,let me cite one scenario,say it is in Downtrend since 2 weeks,now with 1or 2 close above the previous ones you will find RSI shooting up,(becoz the basic mathematical construction is designed so by Mr Wilders).We may gleefully jump in to realize within a week's time we are poorer by another 3% to 8%.
So when the major trend is down that jump of RSI was actually signalling a 'Sell on Rise' but as Mr Wilders had given us a band of ob/os we fail to do so.
If the major trend was UP this would indeed be a good oppurtunity to Long.
Hence the indicator works in 50 % time means when actual Trend is CONDUCIVE it works.
Now many will contradict me by citing the "Kolkata Meet" video,where infact i have mentioned RSI's use.
There i have categorically said when ever a (14 ) period RSI makes a THIRD attempt & crosses 35 then that signal can be considered,becoz i have found even in runaway bull mkt when the RSI touches 3rd time 70 that is most often a valid Sell signal.
Why this 3rd becoz in downtrend for a change of trend to occur the volatility has to come down & the Range also decreases.Moreover from my days of Cycle study i have found Nifty has a max of cycle of 28 to 35 days,and learnt from Enginneers of Telecom field that a half cycle of a Sine wave of Sound is used for lesser degree of DISTORTION.
Later going thru various scientific papers found the importance of half cycle,hence a
14 period is used.(For EoD Data)
Now the 3rd attempt vis-a-vis Close;near bottomming out period , the Range is less & the steep gradient of fall is markedly reduced the difference in close from earlier days will reduce ,(here as the mathematical construction is such the RSI will refuse to come lower becoz we are comparing the latest CLOSE with the entire periods Avg. High to Avg. Low,hence 1 to 2 close above previous suddenly increases the Avg.of High days where as the difference between latest closes will diminish),this is what commonly Traders cite DIVERGENCE,(90% without understanding),here the divergence will come in 2nd attempt mostly,the final 'Testing' (a VSA term) will mostly happen & a 3rd attempt will be made.
There also the success rate is not fair enough.Hope now it will be clear about my subjective Logic.In a Trader's Meet ,where peoples are mostly comparatively new & more inclined to get an indicator's use ,this was my attempt there (Masking the Logic).
So in conclusion to understand a theory like 'C' wave either you know the subject throughly,for which 1 has to read Glen Neely & Robert Pritcher,you have 1 of the Indian best on EW who stays in Mumbai only.
Now to cut the Long story short,let us 1st identify Trend,for which the KISS (keep it simple stupid) is Saint's method,then build around that.

Asish

darn why in the world did I miss the K.meet...

they all r here waiting for u
http://www.traderji.com/general-trad...a-meet-50.html

cheers