Nifty Weekly View (From 30th Jan - Till Friday)
All charts and levels are based on spot price
We had a fabulous rally, which was triggered at # 8440 odd level (Nifty Spot) on 24th Jan based on STI Flip MTF system (60,30,15 mins) - highest timeframe being the last once to flip - not the orthodox entry though. This typically happens when market reverses for good. The ideal entry (15 mins being the last one to flip) will happen during interim pullbacks which we shall see in the coming week. Also,watch out for the Fool's system trigger.
We had almost 230+ odd point rally since that entry, I hardly managed to get 100 odd out of it. Reason being, I was done with Jan's target was playing safe, but no excuse, I missed the meat of the rally. Simply staying in the game would have been more rewarding instead of multiple entry-exit I made. But as I told as long as I am reached my Z factor, I risk less.
Anyways, let start with
weekly, We see some resistance at 8705 level, but holding above it will make the bull run more convincing.
On the
Daily , Well it was
almost 3 White Solders, but we are in resistance zone (8660-8740) - lots of grinding ahead to chew up the premiums of the longs on CE and PEs.
On the downside, I will be a little surprised if it
retraces and sustain below 8550 , even if market paints a sad note on budget day - might offer an entry on the pullback to go long.
However, the
hourly showing a sign of a slowdown - but remember 2 things we discussed:
- if something is appearing too obvious, you are not alone watching that
- Early bird gets the worm, the second mouse gets the cheese
I would let it go little down, cash on the pullback by going long (If I trade and get a level at pivot) and on the second attempt on hourly bearish signal (may be next 1-2days, I will short) - Again, theoretical. What I will do it real will be posted live.
Last chart - Fibonacci - we are well above 61.8% (8562 odd) - another reason I mentioned above, I will be surprised if it sustains below 8550 (the earlier based on daily fractal chaos band, not posting that to avoid confusion).
However, the reason, I posted is the Fibb time-cycle (Vertical lines, not clear enough though, so I put red circles on the milestones). It need not be precise, but we might form a temporary top in a day or two.
So guys, here we are on Nifty. Stay safe on budget day, 1st Feb I guess. Market already discounted any good news and will react violently only if it is too populist - whether I will exploit the short side or will wait for the pullback, I will reveal once I close my trades. But its no brainer to guess my entry, if you have seen my trades for last 6 months, including the live one on my earlier Nifty thread (which I discontinued as flagged non-compliant).
weekly pivot later - Kind of messed up, always happens if the previous weekly candle is a big one. Finding the confluence will be difficult.
So happy trading and make money but only following your rules and setup. Else it will come and will go away with extra pound of flesh, as it happens to all the rules-breakers.