Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

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I did not want to saying anything concerning this, because the facts Im about to propose involves a very close friend of mine who lives just a short ways from where I live, but it is public information so here we go. Also, I didnt want to get into it in this thread, because of the title of it, but some of the posts along these lines have been getting thanks, so it shows some people are enjoying these posts.
Before I get to my friend, Ill share a personal experience. I was an account manager, and was offered a job as an analyst for a broker. It was 276 miles from my home, and I am more devoted to family and my home than I am to a position that has some prestige behind it. The broker asked me to give him a visit, so my wife and I went to Chicago, to go on a tour of his firm, and he wanted to wine and dine me to take the position. That day was extremely enlightening to me, and my wife was very surprised to learn what she did through all this.
The only thing a broker or any other trading entity has the right to do is close someone down when they get too big too fast. This explained why my main platform I use with my methodology is the broker who refused me a live account, while his excuse was that he feared something illegal was going on. He shut my demo (You read it right.) three times, and every time it was when I was making outrageous returns on my account, and I have the proof on 2 of those times. I made over 3,600 pips in 2 days (Im not lying. I got the proof sitting here on my computer.), and the other time I made 500% in 1 months. (I have partial proof of that.). I learned the brokers will do that even to demo traders in order to discourage them from opening an account with them. So now that I know Dan (The broker that took me on the tour.) was telling me right, I put up huge losses on my demo account intentionally to avoid hassles of having to put new templates up and all my charts (28 forex markets, plus gold, silver, oil, and the DJIA.)
What makes sense is if the big money was able to move the markets, then the brokers would move the markets against them in order to garner that money for their selfish aggrandizement. Some of the really big players put up over $ billion on one trade. Why would there not want to be a collective agreement to move the markets against those guys in knowing how much they would lose in knowing it would be the brokers gains? In addition (This is common sense.), there are too many brokers worldwide for them to even think about collaborating any kind of manipulation.
This whole conversation came up from one bad week I had with Nifty. Keep this in mind It is something I live byIt is much easier to take personal responsibility for your actions than blame it on manipulation. Its much better for me to be honest and say, I blew it this week. Big deal! Im human! When I know it is my fault, I have total control, because I can correct the problem. If the markets could be manipulated against me, then I have no hope of trading well, because my broker could come along anytime and move against me.
I have a very good friend who lives just a few miles from me. His name is Roger Wright. I do his TA work for him, as FAs are his specialty, and has been for 30 years. His specialty was working with local farmers and helping them get good rates from the local elevator operators, and for them to trade what they farm on the commodity markets. He had a good share of the farmers in Ohio as his clients. All his farmer / clients were making huge money off the commodity market and the farmers had a new found ability to buy from the elevator operators at extremely low prices and sell when prices were going way up. The commodity people and their lawyers caught up to him, and sued him (File is on CFTC web site.). The reason is they suspected he was doing something illegal, as no one could be that good. In other words, if the markets could be manipulated against him that is one time they would have been. The only way they were able to save their skin is bring a false lawsuit against him. To make a long story short, most of the charges were dropped in exchange for a plea bargain that said he would not trade with another broker again. Effectively, he has a lifetime bar from trading.
If it were possible to manipulate the markets, that is one time it would have been. I also found out how many people that to this day listen to him. My blog is extremely active. When I post concerning beans, corn, and wheat, I get as many hits on my blog in 2 hours, as I do the rest of the week combined. I posted the readership curve from my blog to show what was going on 6 days ago, which was the last time I posted concerning the commodities. I erased the actual amount of hits my blog gets, as that is more personal information, and my blogs address or URL, because it is not allowed by Traderji.
In summary manipulation is only speculative and a lot of hype that is read about it on the internet and the media. After all, there is a reason I did not forecast the exact turning point on Nifty this past week. Who would argue with the daily blowing through the top of the cloud and the very bullish implications that still exist on the weekly? I just forecasted against that evidence based on other evidence.



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Why do an experienced pro. trader bother about manipulation ? We all know Nifty break out at around 5550 then it zoomed to 300++ points in just 6 days a professional trader would a have milted huge money. I think one have to make trading simple too many research also makes trading complicated.
 
Manoharpillai, I've been wrong before. Once, it was when we had the chat room. Many people wanted to use manipulation as an excuse for a bad week I had. Manipulation is something I have never been concerned about. As a trader, the number one problem I will ever have is the same one I have to look at in the mirror each morning. As long as I keep him under control, I will do well as a trader.


Why do an experienced pro. trader bother about manipulation ? We all know Nifty break out at around 5550 then it zoomed to 300++ points in just 6 days a professional trader would a have milted huge money. I think one have to make trading simple too many research also makes trading complicated.
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
Thanks Paul for the responses. Maybe I am just too paranoid.
By now, I have gone through 2 readings on ichimoku ... one (detailed) website and one book. Let me try to use it a little bit, and I will kick up this topic in a few months once I have satisfied my curiosity; or if I find any patterns that can not be explained by charts (likely given my level of knowledge); or which could add value to the charts (hopefully not).
 

Piuvbn

Active Member
I agree with the sentiment you express. However, the difference I see is that the market is shifting from having a million retail customers to having 10 million retail customers (numbers imaginary) PLUS having 20-30 GIANT customers who can spend as much as maybe 1 million retail customers. Of course the technicals are still valid, but there are opportunities for the unscrupulous to play around.

If you remember, there was a story about JPM or GS running priority trades within their networks ... the 3 milli second does not give them magical gains, but small gains a billion times still makes them rich.

I was thinking what will I do if I was a fund manager ... lets assume for a second that I have a huge fund and ability to move market by 0.1%, not big, not noticeable, but still gives me an extra bounce. When will I use it? Given the SIP investments and SWP withdrawals (for Paul these are monthly or weekly automatic investment and withdrawal plans). I would bump up the market on the day when I have most funds coming in, so that I give out fewer units, and I will bump down the price when I have pay out. Now you will say ... how does it matter, if the fund is doing good, the investor eventually gains. So lets alter the model a little bit. What if I am a hedge fund manager with the inside information about SIP and SWP? I can play one side for suckers and give benefit to the other side, can't I?

Of course this is pure speculation and not allegations about anyone. But just like I am gawking at the charts discussion from Paul, and thinking ... if only I knew this before. I am similarly gawking at the month end futures and options volatility and wonder what's going on !! I am sure there is someone out there who is doing proprietary adjustments to the market ... and I think that predicting how the big money will influence the markets is as relevant as technicals and fundamentals, or at least becoming more and more relevant every passing year.
I fail to understand the usefulness of the discussion of viability of technical analysis. Is there any better alternative? Then please show it live to be of help.
This 'advantage disadvantage of TA" type of discussion appeared in many threads on this forum,while it can be useful in filling spaces,in practical trading how it is going to help not known. Hope it helps. Regards
 

sanjosedesi

Well-Known Member
I fail to understand the usefulness of the discussion of viability of technical analysis. Is there any better alternative? Then please show it live to be of help.
Everything ok?
I have already said I am a novice.
I have also said I am backing off from this discussion.
I am not here to give help, but seek help.
Again, everything ok?
Maybe I can search better. But when we have knowledgable people willing to answer, I do not see a problem in asking questions.
 
SJD, I understood the fact you were only trying to be constructive with your FA comments. Monthlies are coming up.
BTW, my actual S&R's performed better than the "A" levels last week, so I'll still keep posting both.
Thanks to everyone for your patience on this matter.

Everything ok?
I have already said I am a novice.
I have also said I am backing off from this discussion.
I am not here to give help, but seek help.
Again, everything ok?
Maybe I can search better. But when we have knowledgable people willing to answer, I do not see a problem in asking questions.
 
I fail to understand the usefulness of the discussion of viability of technical analysis. Is there any better alternative? Then please show it live to be of help.
This 'advantage disadvantage of TA" type of discussion appeared in many threads on this forum,while it can be useful in filling spaces,in practical trading how it is going to help not known. Hope it helps. Regards
technical trading is 90% mathematical trading these days!!!!use it and enjoy
 
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