The Spanish Guitar

#1
Monday was another down day for the S&P500, but a rather pleasant day for the Dow. Caterpillar and Shitibank had nice rallies going for a while. Both finished well off of their highs. AAPL and GOOG on the other hand were slammed all day long. Are they in a race to see which will reach $500/share first?

On a more positive note for the markets in general, this was the fourth heaviest exchange volume of the year. Perhaps we may are headed towards more practical levels?

But even the bright spots on the valuation and volume horizon, it cant hide the black cloud that is Southern Europe. With another European Central Bank bailout eminent, its the same old tune. Unfortunately, this time its a louder instrument.

The Greek lyre has been replaced by a cacophonous Spanish guitar. Yes, Spain will be the next member of the Eurozone to beg for a financial bailout. Spains bond yields are now perilously close to the 7 per cent level that forced Greece, Ireland and Portugal to come singing their woes is me, we aint got no money song to the ECB.

The problem is that Spain's 1.1-trillion economy is twice the size of the previous three bailout victims put together. It seems Spain was mistaken about their debt levels. The Wall Street Journal reported that Spains Debt/GDP ratio is closer to 135% than its official 68.5%.

Its so bad in Spain that their inept federal financiers have to bail out the even more inept autonomous regions. Some regions have failed to pay public service contractors for months and now the Spanish central government has offered credits to help pay those debts. Its the equivalent of the federal government bailing out say Michigan or Mississippi and telling Texas and Florida they have to clean up the mess.

Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called experts.


Larry Levin
President & Founder - TradingAdvantage