O T P D without Indicators.

veluri1967

Well-Known Member
#1
Its a simple strategy which is easily conceivable. Yet it incorporates a high probability day trading setup without the burden of understanding indicators and technical analysis. Its purely mechanical and arithmetical. It needs very basic knowledge about trading.

I take this privilege to introduce O T P D (One Trade Per Day) without indicators or technical analysis.

Before embarking on rules of the OTPD, it is wise to elaborate on systems trading in general. Valid trading systems must first show more profits than losses over an extended period of time. Valid systems must have precise rules for each step of the trading process. This requirement for exact rules is necessary to eliminate judgment calls and make the traders approach to the marketplace as mechanical as possible.

Mechanical in the sense that the trader should not have any say right from deciding the trade, execution and ending the trade. Only rules of the system will decide What next? but not the trader.

As the name suggests, the trader should look for a single trade per day. Whether profit or loss the trader should shut his trading terminal and come back to trade only on next day. This is the pegging on risk that maximum to be taken by a trader. Apart, 2% rule in case of losses would come handy to keep the trader in the business for a longer time.

A complete set up will be posted in the next post.

A good number of enthusiasts are here in this forum to backtest the system on various stocks, indices.

Tweaking the system is the essence of any set up and hope members will come up some profitable tweaks.
 
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veluri1967

Well-Known Member
#3
It is based on simple strategy based on volatility.

Average Range of Scrip for 14 days is taken into consideration. A range is arrived.

If the scrip moves even 50% of Average range we are likely to hit the target n make profit.

Select your favourite stock. Fill up the excel sheet as per instructions. Arrive at Buy and Buy Target and Sell and Sell Target.

Price ideally should open between Buy and Sell price.

Our bet is that if the price opens between Buy and Sell Prices, it is locked in 20% of the Average Range. Even a 50% shake out of the Range will knock our Buy target or Sell target. Though it looks similar to breakout strategy, i visualise it as blow out.

Thatz the reason, i am insisting on One Trade Per Day.

Variation can be added to the setup as follows.

1.On Gap Up or Gap Down days, instead of close, consider open to arrive at Buy or Sell.

2. For those who are interested to catch, the trending markets, just lock in as free trade.

3.My stop loss is opposite order. Though it looks at higher side, I feel comfortable keeping it like that. You can tweak it as per your comfort.

4. When Stop Loss hits, we should reverse the trade by doubling our quanitity. If second trade also hits SL, then it would be wiser to pack up for the day. Start next day, with a positive hope.

For rule 3 and 4, a variation is by increasing target price.

5. Be quick enough to place orders when the market opens.

6. Since it is not taking into consideration any analysis except figures, I would suggest those who are interested in this setup, to backtest it on your favourite stocks and to papertrade for atleast 5 to 10 trading days. This effort is a must.

I am refining excel sheet so as to make it easily readable.

All the best.
 

veluri1967

Well-Known Member
#4
There are some odd scenerious like the following which should be dealt with as discussed below.

1. When the price opens above our buy/buy target or below our sell/sell target , we let it go until it comes within our range.

2. Gap Up or down days. Again wait for the price to come into the range. If it does not come within range, we donot trade. (An alternative to Gaps trading is already mentioned in above post).

3. Never initiate trade when the price is out of range.

4. We are in trade, Only (I repeat) only when the price takes off from the range on either side.

5. There are occasions when our buy or sell are triggered and we are in trade, but neither targets or stop losses are hit. This type of trades do exist. Square off the positions by EOD.

Risk management rules are to be adhered to at all times. That's is to say, expect the worst for the day and then only jump to trade. 2% loss per day, 6% loss per week, 10% loss per month is pegged in. That is to say, if you incur a loss of 2% of capital, suspend trade for the day. If you incur a loss of 6% for a week, suspend trade for the remaining days of the week. If you incur a loss of 10% loss for a month, suspend trade for the remaining days of month.

Money management is obvious to control overtrading and gambling tendencies.

Rules are simple. If no signal for a trade, donot trade.

All the best.:thumb:
 

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