Going with the Intraday Mini-Flow!!

Ooops.....where is your question,MJ?

Saint

__________________
"You cannot change the direction of the wind,but you CAN adjust your sail..."

Ok,let me go first.Saint,my data is not ok today,some errors but let me put it why I reversed at 3699+7=3706.


Mkt made 4 down bars on 30,and after 12=30 when it started coming up,there was a long tail doji on 60.There was a tiny pivot on 15 already in place and that gave me impression that all time frames are saying the same thing.Also I remember your answer to my querry on 4 th June chart where I could not see the pivot correctly it was a reversal on 15 where we reversed and I that time could not understand that reversal.That time it was not even a pivot on 15 but only 3 bars sideways movement on 15.

All the above weighed heavily on my mind otherwise I normally dont act on 15 min pivots.

I am unable to figureout where I went wrong.

Regards


Smart_trade

lol.. I think you have already answered all the questions, before anybody could ask

Here
........

Dear Saint,

Thank You very much for the kind word.

My Day is made. Doubled with Elation. First Market Rewards and then Saint crowns it with a pat.

Cheers

Presuming that 4 bar did not happen......our stops are at the high of the day + room.

MJ,there is a reason why all 3 timeframes are to be looked at........you are already seeing things well.So not that tough....But it is going to be tough to explain to someone who is just starting on the learning curve.

Here goes.....have a look at the 19th Sept,2008.

BAR 1:H 4230,L 4178 after a big gap up..........hmmm,wonder if this is going to be one of those gap up and crash days.Yummy!Looking to short below 4164.

BAR 2:Short at 4164 triggerred.Low of 4151.

BAR 3:Narrow range bar......no problem,one does expect price to rest before continuing in its preexisting trend......Cool!Nothing to worry about......Now where is my cup of coffee?

BAR 4:Taking out the high of the previous bar......our stops at the high of the day +room.....nothing to worry about.But hmmm,there is a pivot break to the up on the 15 at 4180......Okay,all eyes on the 30 and 60....the 15 should start to fail and the preexisting trend should continue.....Another sip of coffee,but this time more tentative,more cautious,all eyes and mind on the charts,nothing else exists.

BAR 5:Another sideways move on the 30.......forget that cup of coffee now.....are we getting a reversal here?The 30 has a move up and a sideways bar,the 60 setting up a reversal candle,nice bullish rounding formation on the 20,the 15 is already in a mini-uptrend having broken that pivot high......Allow this bar to finish.....Finishes on 4188.Plan to reverse at 4195.

BAR 6:4195 longs triggerred......and a blast off....now where is that cup of coffee?All's well in the land of trading again.



Yes,we did get the reversal......but there was no reason to take that pivot break on the 15 at 4180.......why?We haven't gotten a 4 bar rule trigger,we don't have a sideways move on the 30 to look at the 15,so would we reverse?Nope........because we are in effect trading the 30min along with the other 2. That first break on the 15,and a move past 4180 was still bearish on 30,60...... only when it all fell in line did we trigger an uptrend.

Do get back to me if something's not clear.

Saint

__________________
"You cannot change the direction of the wind,but you CAN adjust your sail..."

Hi Bee!!! Its really an excellent thing to do : "my quest to take out the subjectivity in reading the situation". I fully agree with you on this count.
Yes, we do take position opposite of 60 minutes but once we are in the trade we do take guidance of the 60 min. to get a wider picture....
About the 10 paise save, it was just an example that this 10 paise saves at times a big loss!!! It was a thing I have been using and had posted earlier too , just repeated that as today was such a day!!!
Agreed that we use all pivots here but the pivot we see on 15 TF is an excuse of a PH!!!! Yes going mechanically u are probably correct in your assessment but todays trade may change the way you look at the very very small ones!! As you have yourself noted that there was no Pivot in 20 minutes and the PH that was used as an SAR was a candle formed in just 10 minutes!!!
It should not have been considered as SAR till further confirmation!!!
I am not sure about the rule of reversal due to 4 BARS lower lows and reversing above 2 bars , this apart I feel it was an error to consider the 11.30 AM , 15 min. TF candle as SAR!!!
I would not hesitate to add that had the Market turned after your Reversal level, may be we would not have looked the situation so closely and might have missed a lot of inputs from Saint and others....and I consider it as a preparation for trading Bigger lot sizes!!!!
Thanx!!!!

Many times,the 15 forms a pivot break and all the moves together give us a 60min reversal candle........other times,we get a candle that looks like a few candles down on the 15 and then a few candles up on the 15,giving us a bottoming tail on the 60.....as in today.That is,the 60 warns of a possible reversal,and then all the others might fall into place.

So,we got a reversal candle on the 60 first......30 and the 15 still bearish.....now we want the 15 and 30 to give us clear cut signs,like probably a higher pivot low,etc......If instead our dreaded V pattern comes along,and triggers off a blast move from that 60min Bottoming Tail,observe stops as always and reverse if hit.....But in this case,the 15 and 30 did pull back,.........looked like making a higher pivot low and then fell flat down......so,it's a Hold on shorts.

Remember,we presume that a trend continues till the end of day unless proven otherwise.........only when all timeframes come together to a point and signal a possible reversal,there is not much to be done except holding the positions.


To reiterate:Today we got ourselves a candle that is more of a pivot on the 5,not a real pivot on the 15.We look at the 30min charts,we got ourselves a 4 bar down move,we have a look at the 15min charts,and we have a pivot and reversal at 3743.

Then,we have one more down move after the Sun Outage.....Stops to 3721 +7=3728 if you follow the 4 bar rule......or stops at 3743 at previous pivot on the 15/20.

We meanwhile have a 60min reversal candle,......we want the 15/30 to tell us something more.....If not we reverse at 3728 as previously planned.

Saint

__________________
"You cannot change the direction of the wind,but you CAN adjust your sail..."

Hi RK,

Yep.....probably everyone would be feeling great if this had gone on to make newer highs today.

But that doesn't make reversing there correct......and we would pay bigtime on another occassion.

As for the 4bar rule,stick to the Pivots,my friend.........just manage the 3 different time frames well,and you will be laughing all the way to the bank.

Saint

__________________
"You cannot change the direction of the wind,but you CAN adjust your sail..."

Hi Smart Trade,

Once we get that first 4 bars down,we are hunting for pivots on the lower time frames.......on the 4th of June,we got that pivot,and we took it.Today too,we got that pivot at 3743,which did not trigger.

That pivot that everyone got today was never a pivot......maybe on the 5,but hardly noticeable on the 15.

Then we have a reversal bar on the 60......yes,a probable bringing down of stops if all time frames agree.In this case it didn't.....stops remain at 3743.If you believe in trailing the stops to 2 bar back,then,3728.......no changes other than that.

It is very important to go through that June 4th chart again and have a look at the pivot........it happens time and time again,price exhausts itself with one final push and then it has no more in it,.....ran out of fuel.....expect a reversal.

Not sure if I am getting through to the newer folks.......but think you got it.Anything,get back to me.

Saint

__________________
"You cannot change the direction of the wind,but you CAN adjust your sail..."