12th May 2004, 10:00 AM
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Supporting Member
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 340
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Quote:
Is Market Prediction Possible?
"It took me a long time to figure out that no one really understands why the market does what it does or where it's going. It's a delusion to think that you or any one else can know where the market is going. I have sat through hundreds of hours of seminars in which the presenter made it seem as if he or she had some secret method of divining where the markets were going. Either they were deluded or they were putting us on.
I have seen many complex Fibonacci measuring methods for determining how high or low the market would move, how much a market would retrace its latest big move, and when to buy or sell based on this analysis. None has ever made consistent money for me. It also has taken me a long time to understand that no one knows when the market will move.
There are many individuals who write newsletters and/or books, or teach seminars, who will tell you that they know when the market will move. Most Elliott Wave practitioners, cycle experts, or Fibonacci time traders will try to predict when the market will move, presumably in the direction they have also predicted. I personally have not been able to figure out how to know when the market is going to move. And you know what? When I tried to predict, I was usually wrong, and I invariably missed the big move I was anticipating, because it wasn't time.
It was when I finally concluded that I would never be able to predict when the market will move that I started to be more successful in my trading. My frustration level declined dramatically, and I was at peace knowing that it was OK not to be able to predict or understand the markets."
Charles F. Wright, Chairman
Fall River Capital
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Most people like to think of themselves as risk takers, but what they really want is a guaranteed outcome with some momentary suspense to make them feel as if the outcome had been in doubt. The momentary suspense adds the thrill factor necessary to keep our lives from getting too boring. - Mark Douglas
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