Left pullout in Oct. end but govt will not fall

New Delhi, Oct. 1: The CPI(M) politburo and central committee has decided to withdraw support to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government as soon as it approaches the International Atomic Energy Agency to begin negotiations on the enabling safeguards agreement for the Indo-US nuclear deal. This is expected at the latest by the third week of October, after which the Left parties are likely to write to President Pratibha Patil informing her of their decision to withdraw support to the Congress-led government.

The developments from then on become dependent on variables. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh could resign and recommend the dissolution of Parliament. Or the government might decide to prove its majority on the floor of the Lok Sabha during the winter session in November-December. In this case, a majority of members of the Lok Sabha will be required to vote the government out, as abstentions will not be counted. The government can also, without the support of the Left parties, fall if it is defeated on policy matters or on a money bill in the Lok Sabha.

The President has no role to play. Constitutional expert Fali S. Nariman told this newspaper that there was little that the President could do even after receiving a letter from the Left parties withdrawing support to the government. Former Lok Sabha secretary-general Subhash C. Kashyap also held the same view, pointing out that at best Ms Patil could convene a special session of Parliament for a vote.

However, most political leaders contacted by this correspondent felt this was unlikely even if the Opposition exerted pressure, and that a trial of strength would have to wait for the winter session of Parliament. The vote in the House will then depend on the internal political assessments of the different parties about whether they would like to bring the government down, or delay a mid-term poll by allowing it to remain in office for a longer time. This could be done by either not moving a vote of no-confidence against the government, or a decision by parties outside the UPA to abstain from voting.

Mr Kashyap said that the Constitution does not recognise a minority or majority government. It only provides that the majority of members in the Lok Sabha “must not be against you.” If for some reason the government does not face a vote in Parliament, it can continue in power till the end of its term. Constitutional experts cite the instances of late Prime Ministers Indira Gandhi, P.V. Narasimha Rao and Charan Singh who all ran governments that did not have a majority in the Lok Sabha. Mr Charan Singh, in fact, did not face the House and continued in office, submitting his resignation only when Parliament was scheduled to meet.

Can the government that has lost support in Parliament conclude the civil nuclear energy agreement with the United States? The unanimous answer from constitutional experts spoken to by this newspaper was “yes.” There is nothing but conscience and self-imposed accountability to prevent the Prime Minister from concluding the negotiations with the IAEA and the Nuclear Suppliers Group. The government has already made it clear that it will go ahead with the deal regardless of the Left’s strong opposition. Mr Kashyap put it more succinctly: “If they have the courage, they can.”

Mr Nariman also left it to the good sense of the government, saying that they could conclude the deal “if they are so minded.” Constitutionally, if the deal has to be stopped, the political parties outside the government will have to vote it out in November before the agreement is fully operationalised. This will be a political decision for the parties to take. The executive, under the Constitution, is the treaty-making authority. Parliament has at best a “negative role”, with Mr Kashyap pointing out that it can disapprove of a treaty, as it has in the case of the civil nuclear energy agreement.

A responsive executive is expected to take the will of Parliament into account, although again in this case the Prime Minister has shared his determination with Congress members to conclude the agreement with the US. Politically, however, the government will become weak and dependent on the support of parties outside the UPA till 2009, when general elections are due. However, under the Constitution, if the non-UPA parties do not unite to vote the government out in November when Parliament meets, the timing of the next election will remain in the hands of the Prime Minister and the Congress Party.

Source: http://www.deccan.com/Home/HomeDetails.asp#Left pullout in Oct. end but govt will not fall

The Congress Party asserted on Saturday that they were ready for polls thereby indicating breakdown in talks.

Better to liquidate all long positions on Monday itself

ugb,

Dont listen to anything,depend on Smart Money ,they are well versed & better informed than us & they cant Buy or Sell SECRETLY without a reflection in the Data,hence as the Power corrider is Smart Money's back yard ,plz look at charts,they will leave the foot prints for you & me to read.

Asish

Very True said Sir

i fully agree with the views of uasish, at this stage no political party wants election but the smart money is also not moving out of the system still wil have to wait for one or two days to judge it is better to be onsideline and watch how the drama unfold amritak1952

Taking cue from Monday slide 300 points i closed all long position on rel.rel capital only to see both of them gaining 8-10% on the subsequent day.This market is unpredictable!!!!!