Yet Another Dairy . . .

[Happy_Singh]

Hello

A new dairy to jot down my views on swing trading Bank Nifty on 15 minutes time frame with a perspective from daily charts. . .

On the daily time frame chart, BNF Long Trend started way back around mid Feb . . .

Currently we can say it is in a sideways consolidation or distribution phase

If it is consolidation/continuation or distribution/reversal, time will tell . . .

I will be using the level 12500 for that decision, the level is on closing basis using daily time frame.

For now, looking only for Longs, but when/if the 15 mins charts show strength,
as the 15 minutes is far too bearish, all rallies are being sold into,
so we are in nothing doing mode . . .

Yesterdays closing rally gave hope, today's open and opening bar on 15 minutes, dashed all those hopes ,
so we are back to do nothing mode . . .


Shorter time frames could go merrily short but for this one with daily perspective it has to be . . . . . wait and watch . . .



Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hello

Using the daily perspective to Filter the swing trades on 15 minutes has this interesting effect of keeping us out of almost 40% of trades . . .

From these 40% trades that are filtered out, surely there are some trades that are super successful and one of them has to be the current trade
Law of Averages would not have it any other way . . . :lol:

Anyway, some statistics to soothe the agitated mind


Back-testing bar by bar over a period of some 4/5 years worth of swing trades . . .

With-out filter -------- 865 Trades - - - Gains 16500 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points
With- - - filter -------- 450 Trades - - - Gains 14500 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points


Forward Testing, for 2 quarters

With-out filter -------- 40 Trades - - - Gains 1700 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points
With- - - filter -------- 20 Trades - - - Gains 1400 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points


Makes absolute sense to stay out of trades that are not in sync with the daily

But there will be this one swing trade during all the reversal of the Daily TF,
that starts before the reversal and goes on cascading into the reversal of Daily TF trend . . . .
retrospectively "The Best Swing Trade" . . .

Using the daily perspective will keep me out of all these Best trades . . .

Can I accept that ??? Do I accept that ??? Do I have a choice ???


Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Long Triggered . . . huge slippage . . . but the trades in


Looking for strength on 15, so we got strength . . .

but many hurdles on the upside . . .

will have to get out of range created during this week




Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Stop on the long trade @ 12615


Happy

 

[DSM]

Happy,

Good to see you back. Re. this thread, am sure you would have tested for 30M TF as well before deciding on 15M TF? Wondering....

Hello

Using the daily perspective to Filter the swing trades on 15 minutes has this interesting effect of keeping us out of almost 40% of trades . . .

From these 40% trades that are filtered out, surely there are some trades that are super successful and one of them has to be the current trade
Law of Averages would not have it any other way . . . :lol:

Anyway, some statistics to soothe the agitated mind


Back-testing bar by bar over a period of some 4/5 years worth of swing trades . . .

With-out filter -------- 865 Trades - - - Gains 16500 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points
With- - - filter -------- 450 Trades - - - Gains 14500 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points


Forward Testing, for 2 quarters

With-out filter -------- 40 Trades - - - Gains 1700 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points
With- - - filter -------- 20 Trades - - - Gains 1400 Points - - - with assumed cost/slippage of 10 points


Makes absolute sense to stay out of trades that are not in sync with the daily

But there will be this one swing trade during all the reversal of the Daily TF,
that starts before the reversal and goes on cascading into the reversal of Daily TF trend . . . .
retrospectively "The Best Swing Trade" . . .

Using the daily perspective will keep me out of all these Best trades . . .

Can I accept that ??? Do I accept that ??? Do I have a choice ???


Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Actually no, not tested it specifically with 30 Minutes . . .

But as the trend for this method comes from Daily Candles so 10/15/30/45/60 should not make much of a difference . . .
as the smaller TFs will just provide the entry/exit trigger . . .

Also if you have noticed first & last candles of the day turns out to be most important ones . . .
coincidentally 15 and 30 mins TF will have same first and last candle . . . so 70-80% triggers will be same
whereas 60 adds a delay of 30 mins on opening bar, the last one is same for all the tfs


Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hello


When we back test different systems and select something to trade with what is the most important thing of all?

How do we choose one over the other?

Different books/web-sites/experts say that one should trade a system that suites us . . .

Now what does that mean? Suits me . . . means what ? ? ? . . .

Happy

 

[dell]

Can I accept that ??? Do I accept that ??? Do I have a choice ???

Suits me . . . means what ? ? ? . . .

provoking thought process ................hope to get maximum from u ......happy sir

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hello

My view about choosing a system/method to trade . . .

Before we can decide what is a good fit for us we need to completely know the system inside/out
i.e. not only know the how, what and when about the trading system but also know
the behavior of the system over all possible different scenarios playing out in the market . . .

And second thing is we need to clearly know our-self i.e. know about our own expectations . . .

Just having some code that draws arrows on the chart or
even running the back-tests and looking at various ratios/statistics might not help . . .


For e.g. if I know that due to daily filter I will miss few good swing trades from lower TFs,
or when the daily is turning my swing system is bound to throw up few whip saws,
if I already know all this clearly, accepting these trades/misses becomes possible.

If one cares to look/study all these things are seen on the historical charts,
but during live trading, we really do not know which scenario is going to play out . . .
Accepting the outcome, without acting on strong urges/impulses to do contrary things is what we need to cultivate . . .
It is something of a continuous learning for a trader .


btw

EoD BNF Swing goes home Long on a weekend.

Position looks v week but System says long, so . . . has to be Long


Happy

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hello

After 7 days/sessions of sideways action on BNF today we finally got a very strong Bull candle on daily.

For an intraday range of 300 plus points, Volume is low just 22.5 L so far and
the last 100 points surge came with volume of just 3.25 L (2:15 pm bar on 15 minutes)

Seems fresh sellers avoiding to sell/short here . . . so quick rise even with low volumes of buying . . .

ATP for the day far off from CMP now around 12760 . . .


With the sideways or bull flag on daily taken out . . . the obvious next hurdle is 13K the BRN


Happy