Weekly NIFTY and Stock Analysis

[wadeptab]

So you will write your post here on daily basis or on weekly basis.

 

[a1b1trader]

So you will write your post here on daily basis or on weekly basis.

It seems you have not read the thread from the post #1.
He has already answered to this question.
Just read the posts again

 

[fragileninja]

Hopefully you are benefiting from this analysis. I have analysed a few stocks too. You can check them out here:

http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/stocks.html

 

[fragileninja]

Updated analysis for today:

http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/119-nifty-manages-to-narrowly-hold-on-to-critical-support.html

 

[fragileninja]

What a day! Nifty gappup up, sold off, rallied and broke day high, sold off and broke day low and then rallied to break day high again. In the end, a strong positive close at 5845 near the day high and very close to the 200-SMA. There were volumes on both sides through out the day, and it was evidently a tug-of-war between the bulls and bears with the bulls coming on top today. Now bulls need to follow-up once more and get the weekly close above 5850 to confirm the bullish scenario. A close above 5900 will ofcourse be fantastic!

Banknifty followed Nifty but the strength was missing. While Nifty close strongly near the day high, Banknifty closed almost 0.5% points lower from the day high at 11,440. SBI made a new low 6-month low but recovered and closed above 1900 once again. Banknifty futures need to cross 11,500 and close above it while the spot needs to close above 11,460 for the momentum to shift upside.

CNXMIDCAP too had a seesaw day between the important support region of 7300 and 7400, and closed indecisively at 7360. After the initial sell-off the momentum changed towards upside and the ADAG group looked very strong. RELCAPITAL, RELINFRA and RCOM broke previous highs but could not sustain. We should expect follow-up buying today if Nifty sustains above 5840.

The hourly charts have changed from being overbought to neutral now. Nifty should have a good opening due to strong global cues coming from ECB and Bank of England. Short covering during the second half is possible due to Friday being a weekly close. A close above 5850 will be strong and CNXMIDCAP and BANKNIFTY closes above 7400 and 11,450 (spot) will provide confirmation of strength.

 

[fragileninja]

Nifty gapped down 35 points and quickly lost another 60 points to trade at 5,775 around 10.05 AM. The support zone at 5760 to 5780 did not disappoint us and the market absorbed the selling in the support region, bounced back and closed 1% down at 5812. There was clear outperformance by the midcaps with CNXMIDCAP losing only 0.25% against NIFTY's and BANKNIFTY's 1% and 1.3% respectively. The most important part is that all the 3 indices absorbed selling at lower levels and bounced back. There is a very clear consolidation happening in the market before the next big move comes. However, the midcap movement (outperformance) today is hinting towards a bullish breakout. Nifty future premium increased throughout the day and the index ultimately closed with a healthy 20 points premium. 5800 Puts squared off 2.2 lacs OI while there was an 8.5L addition in the 5800 Calls.

There was another whipsaw around the 200-SMA as NIFTY closed mildly below it. Daily charts clearly shows the resistance at 5900 as well as from falling trendline which has now come down to 5880. A close above 5900 will therefore confirm and strengthen the upmove. The next resistance will be in the 5970 to 6000 region above which there should be one swift move to 6300. RSI looks slightly negative while MACD looks slightly positive. Volumes are indecisive.

BANKNIFTY, on the other hand, is weak. It is distantly below the 200-SMA and also closed below the trendline support. Like NIFTY, BANKNIFTY too faces resistance from the downward trendline. A close above 11,450 will provide some conviction that the index can move up. A big part of index's weakness has come from SBIN and ICICIBANK in the last few days. SBIN is near the bottom of a crucial support zone between 1850 to 1900. A breakdown below this will open downside for the stock to 1600 and therfore we must watch SBIN to judge direction of the index. HDFCBANK is near the previous resistance zone between 660 and 670. A breakout above this will open upside till 700. ICICIBANK is weak but near the strong support zone between 1000 and 1020.

CNXMIDCAP looks weak on Daily charts, but Hourly charts are showing a buildup of strength. Yesterday's move was positive as it bucked the trend and refused to go down even when the larger indices were showing weakness. The index faces resistance from downward sloping trendline at 7400. A breakout above 7400 will be positive in short term while a breakout above the previous high at 7600 will show strength and negate the weakness on the daily charts. A lot of midcaps, especially the ADAG group stocks like RELCAPITAL, RCOM and RELINFRA, are breaking out and we need to watch out if index itself can sustain and gain some more momentum. Historically, midcap momentum has predicted the largecap move quite accurately.

Source: http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/122-nifty-again-bounces-back-from-support-adag-group-flies.html

 

[fragileninja]

Nifty traded weak throughout the day today due to pressure in FMCG, cement and banking segment. ITC results disappointed market and the stock corrected about 5%. Ambuja led the cement space lower on the back of news about restructuring of operations. The stock closed down 12% at 171. Banking segment was under pressure throughout the day, which has become usual in the past few sessions. Banknifty ultimately closed down 100 points at 10,614, around 100 points away from the crucial support at 10,500. Nifty tested 5,900 and bounced back slightly to close at 5,907. 5,890 is the ultimate stop loss for the bulls and the market remains buy on dips till this level is held.

Nifty futures rollover at 73% is highest in the last 21 months and this is positive for continuation of trend which is upwards. Cost of carry increased from the previous expiry, indicating bullishness.

FIIs bought 350 crores in the index futures and sold around 450 crores in cash. There is continous buying by the FIIs for last many sessions. Our analysis shows that the market does not change direction unless there is heavy positional trading on the other side by the FIIs. Therefore, our bet is on continuation of trend, which is up and we recommend buy on dips with a SL of 5890 on Nifty and 10,500 on Banknifty. Bank of Baroda, Reliance Infra, Indiabulls Real Estate, DLF and Bajaj-Auto are some of the stocks trading around support regions and our users can consider buying them today if they trade positive.

Nifty rollover data for last 12 years:
http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/132-nifty-futures-see-highest-rollovers-in-21-months.html

 

[fragileninja]

Caution - Nifty short-term uptrend under threat below 6200

Nifty has corrected by 150 points (~2%). Our analysis in the chart below shows that this correction has now led Nifty to an important technical level. Nifty needs to sustain above 6,200 for the short-term uptrend to remain up and above 6,000 to maintain the medium-term uptrend. There may be short-term trading opportunities (only for experienced traders) as shown in the charts below. However, Nifty will continue to be in an uptrend as long as it is above 6,000 and therefore all shorts need to have smart stop losses.

Nifty - hourly

Bank Nifty - hourly

Axis Bank - hourly

Source link:
http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/155-nifty-s-short-term-uptrend-threat.html

 

[fragileninja]

Nifty, Bank Nifty and Axis Bank closed below their support levels. A swift fall towards 6,000 is now likely.

Also check out the performance of equal weighted CNX 500 index (index of all stocks of CNX 500 using simple average of daily gains) against Nifty to get an idea of overall market weakness:

Source article:
http://livestock.cloudaccess.net/154-nifty-6300-cautiously-optimistic.html

 

[fragileninja]

VIX at Support - More volatility ahead

Higher Vix -> Higher volatility -> Market fall