Weekly technical outlook for EURUSD as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 290 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.28829 and 1.34629.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place July 2011 is still intact. This can be seen by the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma. Price has however corrected off the January 2012 lows into the most recent Fibonacci sell zone ambush area where EURUSD has found strong resistance. This has coincided with a bounce off the linear channel and a bearish divergence of the stochastic near an overbought level. The current price action could be seen as signs that EURUSD is about to put in a weekly lower swing high. The 1.2900/1.2930 would appear to be a key near term level to watch.
The previous weeks candle traded lower but managed to eventually close higher. The moving averages are trying cross positively but price action is framed tightly within the linear channel.
As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.
The alternative scenario is a break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667. Any rotation into an uptrend will need price action formation so as to confirm a significant change in sentiment.
Weekly technical outlook for GBPUSD as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 254 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5587 and 1.6095.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place June 2011 may be about to reverse. This can be seen by an attempt of the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma having reversed to a positive layering. This has coincided with a break of the downward sloping regression channel and a bounce off the upward sloping trend line and price support at 1.5234 and 1.5465. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator rolling over in an overbought area.
The previous weeks candle traded higher and closed above the linear channel. If price can trade above the previous swing high of 1.59915 then the next target of 1.61516 comes into play. This being the value two swing highs back.
The long scenario may be
As per our previous post, a pull back to around the 1.5500/1.5400 area before a further upward swing to the downward sloping trend line. This scenario seems less likely after lasts weeks higher close.
As per our previous post, a very minor pull back that holds above or within the upper areas of the regression channel before breaking higher. This scenario looks to be in play.
The alternative short scenario is for a break of support at 1.5465 and a pull back to the upward sloping trend line.
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 290 pips. This implies that EURUSD could potentially trade between 1.28829 and 1.34629.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place July 2011 is still intact. This can be seen by the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma. Price has however corrected off the January 2012 lows into the most recent Fibonacci sell zone ambush area where EURUSD has found strong resistance. This has coincided with a bounce off the linear channel and a bearish divergence of the stochastic near an overbought level. The current price action could be seen as signs that EURUSD is about to put in a weekly lower swing high. The 1.2900/1.2930 would appear to be a key near term level to watch.
The previous weeks candle traded lower but managed to eventually close higher. The moving averages are trying cross positively but price action is framed tightly within the linear channel.
As we are in an established weekly down trend a conservative view of the current price action would be to participate in any sell off down to support of 1.2930, 1.2624 and 1.2328.
The alternative scenario is a break of the downward sloping regression channel with an initial target of 1.3667. Any rotation into an uptrend will need price action formation so as to confirm a significant change in sentiment.
Weekly technical outlook for GBPUSD as at 19th March 2012 by ACFX.COM
The weekly range based upon the most recent Average True Range readings is 254 pips. This implies that GBPUSD could potentially trade between 1.5587 and 1.6095.
As per our previous post, the weekly bear trend that was put in place June 2011 may be about to reverse. This can be seen by an attempt of the negatively layered 8 and 21 period sma having reversed to a positive layering. This has coincided with a break of the downward sloping regression channel and a bounce off the upward sloping trend line and price support at 1.5234 and 1.5465. However the bearish divergence in the stochastic is a potential warning of continued market negativity with this indicator rolling over in an overbought area.
The previous weeks candle traded higher and closed above the linear channel. If price can trade above the previous swing high of 1.59915 then the next target of 1.61516 comes into play. This being the value two swing highs back.
The long scenario may be
As per our previous post, a pull back to around the 1.5500/1.5400 area before a further upward swing to the downward sloping trend line. This scenario seems less likely after lasts weeks higher close.
As per our previous post, a very minor pull back that holds above or within the upper areas of the regression channel before breaking higher. This scenario looks to be in play.
The alternative short scenario is for a break of support at 1.5465 and a pull back to the upward sloping trend line.
