Trading with OBV - for Beginners only !!

vijkris

Learner and Follower
#11
My Updated Personal Rules for trend trading using 1 min 15 period price and obv ribbons.

Disclaimer: These are my personal rules and part of my trading plan and it may be different when compared to original rules proposed by varunji.. You are free to create your own rules, once basic concept is clear.

Timeframe: 1 minute

Tools required: Amibroker only. kite/pi etc. is not supported. But visual/manual marking of sup/res of obv can be done in any charting platform.

Basic Concept: "Be long when you get a long signal by the blue/green ribbon method and remain long till sl hit and vice versa for shorts" .

Entry Setup:

After 1st minute bar of opening, we will look at the ribbons, If both are different color, we wait for it to become same color.
IF both ribbons are of same color since the opening bar, that means that trade has already triggered..
Eg. at 9.15 bar closed, 9.16 we look at the ribbons. both are blue/green.
That means long trade triggered.

Common Sense: For longs, we will wait for Previous high of the trigger candle to be broken.
i.e 9.16 bar's high must be greater than 9.15 bar. ( Assuming that at 9.15 bar
both ribbons were blue/green)

Sl : It is based on previous ribbon's low/high. Since it is accurately shown by afl, If long.. the green line is our sl. If short... the red line is our sl.

So early in the morning that sl may be far away. So if we can afford, we will take the trade or else leave it. but pls remember trade has triggered..

vice versa for short trade.

Eg: We are already short acc to system. Those who entered, they will hold until Sl, i.e red line hit.
In the meantime, both red ribbons may change to blue. Those who already are in nice profit, they can do partial profit booking and simultanously get ready to add more qty to the existing positions.

When to add/reentry: So now the counter trend move, if it doesn hit our Sl and it ribbon changes color back to red, we Re Enter immediately.

New Sl: We will observe that previous red line has moved down. Thats our new trailing Sl.
vice versa for Longs.

EXIT:

In good trend (20% of the trading days), tsl wont be hit, we will exit at EOD.
Otherwise(80% of trading days) TSL will be hit and we exit.

Once Tsl hit, it does not mean trend has reversed.. It means we may encounter sideways or pullback.

Whenever we open the chart, even if we are full time trader or part time trader, Pls scroll to the left of the chart and take a look at the 1st signal which was triggered.

Hope I am clear about the 1st trade of the day. In good trending days, there is no tsl hit and highest amount of money is made. If the 1st trade's TSL hit means consider that today is going to be a sideways/reversal day.

-----------------------X-----------------------------------------X-----------------------------

What to do after TSL hit ?

Hope I am clear with the basic concept that 1st trade is taken as soon as 1min 15period ribbon is at sync and common sense applied as well.
At the time of 1st trade we are assuming it is going to be a trending day today .

After tsl hit, we have confirmed that it may not be a trending day today, so we introduce a new filter, i.e 200 EMA on the price pane.

(For trading with ribbon method, 1st method's obv pane is not required)

Above 200 ema is bull territory, below 200 ema is bear territory.

Eg: 1st trade long, now tsl hit.

So, We will look at the 200 ema filter.

If current bar close is above 200 ema, that means we are in bull territory, so we are SOH.(No open position) until we get again a long signal(ribbon turning from red to blue)
or
If current bar close is below 200 ema, and previous bar low also breached, then we take reversal signal (provided ribbons are red)
vice versa for longs.



EDIT: Since I am backtesting with pdc of obv as a filter, so the reversal rules might change.. Pls see page 3 onwards, if there is any update regarding this.
thank you.
 
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vijkris

Learner and Follower
#12
Vijkris ji welcome back. I was missing you.
Thanks Varun ji for visiting here.. In my absence ur thread advanced to very high level, pdc, 5day ribbon etc etc... Here I won't be discussing any of those.. Only 1st method or 1 min 15 period ribbon method..


Thanks for starting a new thread. Missed all the action in the other thread. It went too fast. Hoping to learn obv here.
I have completed the theory part now.. For practicals all must participate. :D

Nice start Bro , i wish this thread achieve its purpose . i want to say more but my language barrier restrict me . i hope english teacher start seperate thread for me :lol:
Thanks for the wishes... Hope all the beginners trading 1st or 2nd method will participate..

Big Thanks for opening this thread for a slow learner,bulb version 0.5Watts like me :D
Myself also slow learner... U are not alone. :)

Great work.....nice new points for me..

Thanks a lot...
Thanks sir...
Excellent Vijkris,

You've hardly come from your holidays and you've already started the thread to give your take on the OBV method.

Excellent commitment :thumb:
Thanks for the kind words..:thumb:
Still unpacking not over.. :lol:
 

vijkris

Learner and Follower
#13
Recap of Risk Management:

SIX TYPES OF RISK TO MANAGE IN TRADING

Trade risk.
The calculated risk you take on each individual trade is adjusted by changing your trade size. This is the only risk you can control. A good rule of thumb is to never risk more than 2 percent of the capital in your trading account on any one trade.

Market risk
.The inherent risk of being in the market is called market risk and we have absolutely no control over this type of risk.
Market risk may cause our carefully calculated trade risk to be much larger than anticipated.
Market risk can be far greater than trade risk.
For this reason it is best that you never trade with more than 10 percent of your net worth.
This type of risk encompasses catastrophic world events and market crashes that create complete paralysis in the markets.
Events causing market gaps in price against your trade are also considered to be market risk.

Margin risk.
This involves risk where you can lose more than the amount in your margined trading account. Because you are leveraged, you then owe the brokerage firm money if the trade goes against you.

Liquidity risk
If there are no buyers when you want to sell, you will experience the inconvenience of liquidity risk.
In addition to the inconvenience, this type of risk can b ecostly when the price is going straight down to zero and you are not able to get out.
Liquidity risk can be caused by or aggravated by a market risk event.

Overnight risk.
For swing/positional traders, overnight risk presents a concern in that what can happen overnight, when the markets are closed, can dramatically impact the value of their position. There is the potential to have a gap open at the opening bell where the price is miles away from where it closed the day before.
This gap possibility can negatively impact your account value.

Volatility risk.
A bumpy market may tend to stop you out of trades repeatedly, creating significant drawdown. Volatility risk occurs when your stop-loss exits are not in alignment with the market and are not able to breathe with current price fluctuations.
BASIC TYPE OF STOP-LOSS EXITS

1. Initial stop.
First stop set at the beginning of your trade.
This stop is identified before you enter the market.
The initial stop is also used to calculate your position size.
It is the largest loss you will take in the current trade

2. Trailing stop.
Develops as the market develops. This stop enables you to lock in profit as the market moves in your favor.
We exit the market when the market goes against us and our stop is hit.

3. Trend line stop.
Use a trend line placed under the lows in an uptrend or on top of the highs in a downtrend. You want to get out when prices close on the opposite side of the trend line

MOVING STOPS
Never move your stop for emotional reasons, especially when it is your initial stop .
As new trailing stops are determined, you can move your stops to lock in profit.
If you add on to your winning trade (increase your trade size), your stop must be adjusted to keep your risk in relation to your new trade size.
RULES FOR OVER NIGHT TRADES

For daytraders, there is risk when holding trades overnight ,since there is always a possibility of unforeseen events occurring after hours. Unexpected events can create a gap open, which may adversely affect your account value.
For example, if you were trading a 15-minutetimeframe,your stoploss and position size would be based on the 15-minute time frame.
But, let’s say you are five minutes from the close of the day and the trade is profitable and much more profit is possible if you hold the trade overnight based on your 15-minute chart.
When this happens, consider five rules:

1. The trade must currently be profitable.
2. The 15-minute chart must indicate a solid trend in place.
3. You must set a new stop-loss exit based on the daily chart.
4. Reduce your trade size so that risk remains no more than 2 percent of your trading account based on the new adjusted stop from the daily chart.

5. Be sure to monitor the trade at the opening bell when the market opens the next day.

In this way you will take into account the inherent risks of holding the trade overnight. This will not eliminate your risk, but it will reduce it.
TWO PERCENT RISK FORMULA

As a starting point, It is recommended that you do not risk more than 2 percent on any one individual trade.

If you are a more advanced trader and choose to risk more than 2 percent, you will want to substitute the 2 percent amount in this formula with the percent you decide to have at risk prior to doing this calculation.

conservatively I have modified it to 1%.

Formula: Account size×1%=Risk amount
Example:
capital = rs 20,000
rs20,000×1%= 200
Remember,the risk amount of rs200 includes commission and slippage.
You will need to take that into account.
Now that you know what amount you will risk on your trade (rs200) you can figure out your proper trade size.


TRADE SIZE FORMULA

In the example, we can risk rs 200 per trade on a rs20,000 trading account.
The formula for determining proper trade size for this risk amount is as follows:

Formula: [Risk amount−Commission] ÷initial stop loss = trade size

Eg. ABC - ltp @ entry = rs 200 , initial stop = 198; i.e 2 rs , approx brok = 50
therefore [200−50] = 150 is the max loss amt if trade goes wrong.

No.of shares = 150 ÷ 2(initial stop) = 75 shares


we must also include the max loss per day. after crossing that we have to compulsorily stop trading for the day/
As an example, it can be set conservatively as 4% of capital.
that means after hitting 4 consecutive 1% loss, we have to stop trading for the day, and analyse what went wrong.

2 or 3 consecutive days of being stopped out means, for that week trading must be stopped.
Thanks Vijay, so let's put it as
1% per trade
4% as hard stop for the day
8% for the week
?12% for the month
(Please clarify for week and month)
Regards
it is purely based on ur risk tolerance, i.e eg. in 2 days u hit max stop for the week i.e 8% loss. it is worst case scenario
Instead of going for vacation, u would have paper traded the remaining week and analysed and found out whether the method worked for u or not.
If paper trade also showed loss means , that means something is seriously wrong with ur plan/strategy/psychology
u wont enter with real money next week Until u make a profits on paper trading or learn the basics once again.:D

If u can tolerate the high risk( not recommended), u can repeat the same strategy for next week. if again 8% loss means (total = 16%)
then stop trading for whole month and don't return with real money until u have improved.

the above are my personal risk mgmt. settings.
I would have followed the same. :)
 

vijkris

Learner and Follower
#14
Which Method to use.. 200 ema or Ribbon ?

It depends on your Mentality and the tools available.

  • If scalping then go for 200 ema in obv and price method.
  • Precise timing of entry is important in this method, then only small ISL can be achieved.
  • Fresh crossover of 200 ema above or below obv and price gives a high probability setup.
  • Higher amount of trades will be seen.
  • Delayed entry compared to 2nd method.

If You want to capture whole trending move, then Ribbon method, which relies on 15 period bo/bd is the best.

  • Once entered, only periodic adds and revision of tsl needed..
  • Trading is more relaxed in this method.
  • Along with adds huge R:R can be seen.
  • 1st trade may have large ISL, still if risk mgmt allows then trade can be taken.
  • If initial qty is 100 shares, then subsequent adds must be 50 shares each. Refer to other articles about qty for adds.
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
#15
Vijay !!! Nice to see your thread for beginners !!! small suggestion in general for beginners just test at least 90 trades and write down the results after understanding the concept !!
 
#16
Thanks Varun ji for visiting here.. In my absence ur thread advanced to very high level, pdc, 5day ribbon etc etc... Here I won't be discussing any of those.. Only 1st method or 1 min 15 period ribbon method..
Do include the PDC code, it marks yesterdays last point/'starting point for today . . . .

A very good reference point, used as a filter for trading bias . . .


Happy :)
 

vijkris

Learner and Follower
#17
Vijay !!! Nice to see your thread for beginners !!! small suggestion in general for beginners just test at least 90 trades and write down the results after understanding the concept !!
U mean forward test na.?

Do include the PDC code, it marks yesterdays last point/'starting point for today . . . .

A very good reference point, used as a filter for trading bias . . .


Happy :)
Ok.:thumb:
Above pdc bullish bias and below pdc bearish na. ?
Have to read the posts again... hehe
 
#19
Good initiative to keep all important posts about the method and AFLs at one place.In AFL give old version Ami AFLs also as many have older versions of Ami.It will make learning easy for the members who want to learn the method.

Smart_trade
 

XRAY27

Well-Known Member
#20
Do include the PDC code, it marks yesterdays last point/'starting point for today . . . .

A very good reference point, used as a filter for trading bias . . .


Happy :)
Depending on time scale it will change the bias !!!

3 min it was bullish and 1 min it is bearish !!!



 
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