Trading Pullbacks, Tradelog

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#71
1 trade



Didnt find any trade on open aligned with Nifty Anti ( 2nd CT leg).
Later took, PB Short HDFCBANK. The PB leg was a bit strong, but took entry looking at LTF climax/exhaustion and NiftyBank looked good for shorts. Nifty too was consolidating at lows. Entry ( channel FT on close) was a bit further than bar close and got some slippage too. Price moved ok but reversed taking TSL

A lot of my trades are returning from 0.6/0.7x without hitting T1. The purpose of T1 is to improve consistency and it needs to have higher hit rate. Taking better trades with time will hopefully help but I will also consider using slightly tighter stops and when possible work on slightly earlier entries with less confirmation. Combined, this can reduce target distance a lot and perhaps improve expectancy. This will also increase chance of loss and chance of bigger losses. Stop will still be kept reasonably away from pattern and away from pivot.

Nifty has started the 15m 2nd CT leg today ( Anti ). Initial bias is short but have to look out for possible HTF trend resumption. A deeper move can then setup 75m Anti too but still long way from daily move being under threat.

TataSteel

Drawing TL and TCL can help you get into trade early
feb 14 was Bull channel day
feb 15 it start with big bear bar with tail at bottom 2nd bar doji bull bar could have enter at above bar 2 high on SLM for test of bull channel line or Y swing high at end of day. (Not marked on chart)

on feb 15 second entry short are rejecting TCL (marked on chart)
with tgt of measure move from rejecting to entry marked with blue line to down if check TGT measure move come bar 1 low

feb 16 long entry this would trick on realtime i am not denying it after see pin bar with that big tail above it it would be ideal to go long
if you moved notice entry on realtime i think their would change to add trade around that area
SH, I try to use Entry pattern as last step before entry so there are other factors first. For entry trigger, PB channels are sometimes used when visible. Entry can be on FT of channel high for shorts or on BO close out of the channel

In 1st example, what is the difference between marked entry and the test before that ( which failed ) - would you take both entries ? I would prefer to take entry triggers that are not too frequent, ie avoid plans that involve multiple entry triggers into a pattern and where we need to take all entries.

2nd example entry by plan is actually on pin bar close. It was FT of HTF pivot on day after trend day. I hesitated/ignored and missed it ( TS and VEDL both gave nice FT there ). For now i want to avoid TTF Pivot BOs as they fail a lot

In general, Entry triggers i want to use are
1) FT of horizontal/sloping SR. Or on BO out of the flag ( i dont use it yet)
2) LTF compression BO
3) LTF (CT) climax using BO of TTF bar or some consolidation
4) LTF CPB
5) And on LTF BO of some clearly visible structure/SR, ex multiple bars with same high that is not yet broken with price pressing into the S/R

Just fyi,
FT = Failure test / Pin bar rejection
CT = Counter trend
TTF = Trading Timeframe ( 15m )
HTF = Higher Timeframe ( 75m / Daily)
LTF = Lower Time Fram ( 3/5m )
By LTF compression i mean smaller range bars / Inside bars,
 
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TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#72
No trade today. There were some aggressive short trades available which i skipped.

So i have been restricting HT pullbacks by using them only when Nifty is in BO mode. In future i will try to relax this a bit to take trades that are moving without Nifty. Maybe will consider some of below as factors in plan
1) Trend day/Daily range expansion signs in stock, so breakout of daily consolidation/Multiple day Range/Inside days, Turning point of Daily patterns etc
2) Sector charts, Can look if Sector is in similar BO mode. And/Or also see if multiple stocks of a sector are making strong moves. So for example, BPCL and HPCL making strong opens together might indicate a better chance of real imbalance. This happens regularly.
3) Look at how 'trendy' has the daily bars been for the stock recently. So if the daily chart is making clean moves with many bars having open and close near opposite extremes then its a good candidate to relax rules

Expectation from HT pullbacks on open is a strong immediate move, will exit/tighten as usual if that does not happen.

----

Nifty continued downtrend but moving without fast momentum and so with multiple divergences. Bias remains short for tomorrow until a good upmove indicates that daily UT could be resuming.

Month ends with gross 0.6% and net -0.66%
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#73
No trade again. Nifty gave nice PB long trade but didnt get any entry trigger in stocks. NiftyBees could have been nice to use but its seems to have very low volume.

Nifty has started turning back towards daily uptrend after another shallow daily pullback leg. The pullback in 15m was rejected EOD though and is back below previous pivot. So initial bias for tomorrow is long but not very clear.
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#74
1 trade



Nifty was breaking out after gap open. Took PB long in HDFC. Trade began to move but quickly reversed and failed. Could not find any short trade after exit

Nifty sharply rejected daily PH BO. There is possible SR below, If it holds price may range. After strong trend, initial plan for tomorrow is to look for CT FT Longs and CPB longs - If Nifty does not run down on open. And to look for PB shorts later if it develops
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#75
2 Trades on Friday, made some mistakes



Short ITC PB. This was probably not a good setup, It was a bit aggressive on a day when my bias was for CT longs. My initial plan was to look for CT trades after trend day in Nifty. I could not choose/execute any FT trade. Then saw this and it looked nice with weak PB leg and similar flag in FMCG, so took it



Short ITC again. This was a better trade than above. Nifty had shown no rejection at possible SR. It was breaking down after some consolidation at SR.

Entry bar rejected and then didnt move. I gave it too much space and time and took bigger loss than necessary. I didnt tighten fearful of being shaken and didnt scratch in hope of a move, possibly because of full loss in earlier trade. Previous month i handled loosing trades well. After loosing 1st month, i had played defensive looking to exit every trade manually (or tighten aggressively) if they didnt move. Seemed to have got out of that mindset on month change. Expect every trade to loose, but give space if it does move ..

Nifty SR held for now. Price has started moving up. No clear outlook for tomorrow. If open is strong, then expect price to remain in 75m range. Without a good upmove, this can turn into a 75m short pullback looking for another test of the lows. Banks are looking weak.
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#76
1 trade



Anti Long in BharatFin. Nifty opened strongly up today. Took look here with Nifty pullback. But trade failed, Nifty also pulled back a bit more before resuming late afternoon.

Nifty is in 75m range and moving towards SR above. 15m PB is now at previous PH.
Daily trend has made decent consolidation, longer term bias is for range to be continuation range. Daily is consolidating at Previously Weekly high without any rejection so far.
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#77
No trades for last 2 days.

In the first ~2 hours, I will start giving preference to stocks with potential for trend days. So eod, make list of stocks in daily bar compressions and those ready to trigger HTF patterns and then look for strong open next day, perhaps with entries using HT flag. This will also allow better focus on open.

In Future, i will also try to use 5m FTs during slow noon hours with a few conditions - there is a nice webinar in IB. These 2 can compliment taking trades aligned with tradeable patterns in Nifty to make my daily trading framework. Have to now start practicing them using bar replay, perhaps 1 thing at a time.

Nifty is trading within range away from extemes. There was no followup after today's morning fall. Daily trend is still up with IT and (higher weighted) banks still bullish. Metal has perhaps began to crack and energy seems to have climaxed. Auto is already bearish with an Anti that could give another leg down.
 

TracerBullet

Well-Known Member
#79
1 trade



Short BPCL HT with price resuming daily PB after an inside day.
Nifty Gapped up out of an inside day and my initial bias was to look for longs with IT looking to be the best option. But IT index did not hold well and Nifty also rejected and started consolidating near lows, so went for short candidate instead which worked ok but got shaken out ..
 

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