Trading Pullbacks, Tradelog

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bhai, most traders, using different methods, have similar views that it is getting ready for a strong move out from this tightening range. But what about the probabilities of the DIRECTION in which this move could be ? Is your method showing some signs of any directional bias, or if it is 50:50 type situation, according to your method ? This tight range has already caused a few traders to kick their computers in TraderRavi bhai thread - http://www.traderji.com/derivatives/89068-day-trading-nifty-stock-futures-2420.html

Thanks and regards

It can break either way. Earlier i had long bias, price is still within BO base with higher lows. But its not so clear cut, There are multiple small FTs at the top and price could be at the end of an extended Daily trend. Couple of bad results yesterday too.

I dont trade it directly, but its possible to have bias within a range looking at HTF. If HTF is trending, generally TTF consolidations are continuation ranges. A strong move in HTF followed by consolidation at extreme is more likely to continue. But if HTF shows some signs of trend termination, then it can be reversal range. Termination signs include Climax/Exhaustion and maybe Divergence. A reversal range in TTF is still only a simple PB in HTF.
BO Bases improve chance of BO. BO Base = 1) small range pressin into SR within bigger range or 2) higher highs into SR with multiple tests of SR and vv. Here the rejection from SR keeps getting weaker before BO

 

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1 trade

FT HDFCBANK short. Ideally, FT entries are on bar close behind level, but for now i generally take them on some LTF BO. This extra confirmation pushes target much further. Also got some slippage. Exit trade after snapback. HDFCBANK did not participate in Nifty fall all day.

Today i should have been in BO mode looking for Daily range expansion, but was not mentally prepared for a trend day within range. There were some aggressive shorts available in pause on noon.

Nifty is consolidating near Range low. If tomorrow open does not show strength, we can expect another possible leg down after consolidation.

 

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1 trade, bad day ..

Long TS Pullback. Manually scratched it too early and missed a good trade.

After trend day yesterday, initial expectation was for some consolidation and possible CT FT in morning as people get trapped looking for immediate continuation. I had it in mind but did not execute. Did some busywork categorizing every move after open instead of looking for specific setups as per initial plan once open was not strong either way. I think part of the reason is i am not yet comfortable with taking FT blind on close, but part of the edge is in the early entry as snapback quickly hits nearby target.

As usual, missing a trade makes me loose focus/discipline. Usually i miss trades after that, but today took Pullback long once Nifty made strong impulse. But mismanaged it, manually quit when Nifty Pullback seemed to be failing and TS snapped back even stronger.

Nifty is used as a bias/filter to look for trades aligned with overall market. I started doing this to reduce my options and to get some help from Nifty. But i am not trading NF and i should allow a trade to move on it own. Some trades will lag Nifty and underperform. This i cannot change, so i should also allow a trade to outperform Nifty and not look for exit if Nifty stalls.

Looking ahead, i need to finish making a trading plan and process plan. Right now i am working with scattered bits, so its easier to loose discipline.

Nifty bounced off support, so range holds. Lets see if daily trend resumes.

 

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2 trades

An Anti through CPB in YesBank. Nifty made another FT of range high today after BO due to HDFC. Short yesbank. Price moved but then stalled. Exit after price didnt move. This CPB is also a 1H Anti PB after strong CT move from all time high. That eventually moved but not in the trading Timeframe swing.

Next, short Asian Paints. There is no new momentum low in the setup leg. Instead, This is first PB after BO from range with Higher time frames breaking down from a long tight channel.

This was aligned with Nifty which seemed to be turning back down after PB. But after my entry Nifty started moving back up. I may have gone with VEDL long instead if i was not in AP. Anyway, AP held through the upmove but then also did not fall when Nifty fell fast. The trade was dead, but i didnt have any other trade and tsl was comfortable so held with increased target size. But price didnt move, just small ping pong moves. Finally quit with 20 mins left to squrareoff through Limit order. Market obliged and made a spike to my target in the very next candle, the last tradeable bar ...

Taking reduced number of trades this month, so far 2 week is at BE after expenses.

Nifty Future remains in extended range after rejection from both sides. No clear Bias for now. Index chart looks different apparently due to HDFC cash/Future gap. Index is testing range high after BO with lower highs

 

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1 Trade

Short HDFC PB. This moved initially but did not hit target. Scratched through tsl
Nifty was in a slow but steady uptrend. I had only aggressive long trades available, decided not to take them. HDFC looked ok for short after weak open leg, took it. There was also a chance that Nifty(index) might give FT of nearby PH. That did not happen.

Will try to use sector charts for few sectors as context in future, perhaps starting with EOD and using intraday later once more comfortable.

Nifty continues daily uptrend with a weird inside bar trend day. So far there are no signs of trend weakening with price breaking out of consolidation. Leading sectors of this UT have been Energy, Banks and Metals and all of them are in intact uptrends.

 

[Snake.Head]

@TB Nice going
If you can fine tune you entry little bit earlier then it would be great.
Will mail you later this week,when i am back in mumbai.

 

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2 trades

Short HDFC again CPB / HTF PB. Nifty was drifting down. Almost hit T1, i could even see my order in book , but again missed and scratched through tsl

Long BPCL. Nifty was turning through CPB long, so took long here in BPCL which also one of the RS leaders. The setup leg was a bit climactic but took it as entry looked like a mini CPB and PB leg was weak.

Entry was on break of long LTF consolidation. Weak entry, there was no momentum on the turn. Didnt like trade, If there is no quick movement out of CPB then trend could be exhausted. Energy index gave volatile LTF FT of Highs too. So quit through Limit order

Nifty continues to move up through 15m CPB. Inital plan is to look for long PBs tomorrow.

 

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1 trade

FT Short ONGC. Nifty had a small gap up, but a large part of it was due to Reliance. Most of my stocks seemed to have weak open. ONGC short looked nice entry into daily PB. This time took it on close price. But trade failed to move for 3-4 bars so started tightening stop and quit. And yet again, price immediately turned after my exit and gave a clean move to target and beyond - without any hiccups. I think my exits create a reverse imbalance ... Need some luck

Looked for shorts later after nifty was in possible small Anti. Tata Motors looked good, but trade did not trigger in time.

Nifty Daily trend remains up but is it exhausted ? Today we made a small free bar ( bar outside bands) in daily. There was a moderately sharp move against the sliding opening trend which could set up a small LTF anti for another leg. No clear intial plan for tomorrow, maybe look for FT or any clear short if nifty does another leg down.

 

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1 trade on thursday + an error trade

First got into a position by error, Sent Limit order instead of Stop-limit. Exit gave small loss. This is a silly error. I had kept it pending but now updated OM to give warning if an order will be filled immediately.

Next long TCS using an aggressive shallow pullback. IT was strong since open hitting new highs and staying at highs. I skipped early morning HT flag in Infosys as it was aggressive trade with Nifty compressing. Later Nifty started breaking out, IT had held well and was strongest sector of the day. So took TCS long.

BO was alright but price returned quickly and stalled for long time. This was an aggressive trade, tightened SL looking to get out if it breaks down. IT and Infosys were holding much better than TCS. Stop held and trade finally began to move.
Again price rejected quickly from the highs. I moved stop above BE looking at LTF charts. This was a mistake which is easily visible in TTF. Price hit my stop and with slippage gave me perfect exit at the lowest price in pullback and then moved on. This can be hard to watch once you realize it was a mistake. I even had a short-lived moment when i saw that stop was too tight but i set it anyway. This was same mistake as this

So what is triggering this? I think its a mix of below
1) Price stalls around entry for some time
2) Movement finally relieves some tension
3) After trade begins to move, Quick scary LTF snapback. I give up and just want to get out without loss. What does not help is that a lot of my trades go to 0.5-0.7x only to fail without hitting T1.
In this case, i was also frustrated that TCS was not moving with IT and my other option, Infosys, was moving much better beyond 1x

To mitigate this,
1) I will not look at LTF charts after entry. LTF trend integrity can be an aid in exits but right now it does more harm than good and makes me restless
2) I will also try to not monitor trade continuously. So watch 2/3 times in a TTF bar rather than agonizing over every LTF move
3) Try not to over-analyze other charts once in trade. I have no control on trade outcome, just manage it per plan trailing behind at reasonable TTF distance and holding through small consolidations. Its ok, somewhat subjectively, to scratch or tighten SL when trade is not moving as expected. But not once it has started moving.
4) Dont look at Orderbook, It does not help me.
5) Try to watch behavior and self talk during trade. Stay calm, I can get a bit hyper.
I have been avoiding this for now and leaving it to future. But if i am unable to follow above then will have to look at it first.

Nifty daily trend continues, made another small free bar and is now testing previous weekly high. Will this develop into a (daily) sliding trend ?
In TTF, we got a stronger CT leg which could setup an Anti on monday

 

[Snake.Head]

TataSteel

Drawing TL and TCL can help you get into trade early
feb 14 was Bull channel day
feb 15 it start with big bear bar with tail at bottom 2nd bar doji bull bar could have enter at above bar 2 high on SLM for test of bull channel line or Y swing high at end of day. (Not marked on chart)

on feb 15 second entry short are rejecting TCL (marked on chart)
with tgt of measure move from rejecting to entry marked with blue line to down if check TGT measure move come bar 1 low

feb 16 long entry this would trick on realtime i am not denying it after see pin bar with that big tail above it it would be ideal to go long
if you moved notice entry on realtime i think their would change to add trade around that area