Trading Options with Tukka style
- Thread starter praveen taneja
- Start date
Yes, I am for NF 8000+, but this will happen only if NF cross decisively 7950/60 and until NF is below this level/range, till then no chance 
Though there are indications for a move to this range but NF will sustain there and move up, is the question.
Secondly SGX didnt move positively for these results, is the next question. This may have happened because of bad Europe and US numbers. In the end SGX closed flat.
Though there are indications for a move to this range but NF will sustain there and move up, is the question.
Secondly SGX didnt move positively for these results, is the next question. This may have happened because of bad Europe and US numbers. In the end SGX closed flat.
MAYDAY is a emergency distress signal internationally recognized as an SOS .
The Post budget recovery from an extremely oversold position was good reason for the Bulls to rejoice but the more important call was whether we were back into bull market territory. In a market that is driven mostly by liquidity all arguments can fail. But you need to call a spade a spade. Many start justifying a market rally as a sign that the worst is over. The reason that the market continues to jest the hopefuls is that a final top, in the market driving stocks and distribution in the Midcap/Smallcap segment, was incomplete. Rather than believe in conspiracy theories I would rather say that nobody knows. The study of cycles and market psychology is often ignored and termed as esoteric, or something that few can comprehend. Maybe but if there is a science to the market it is better to know it than be ignorant. I do not talk down either fundamental analysis or economic analysis, I just use it to complement my study of cycles. It is also further amusing that this debate and finger pointing is more prominent in the Indian financial Industry rather than the West. The market discussions in the Western media have matured on this. The science of markets.
So I was expecting an X wave in Jan and yes EMs and EM currencies did bottom by mid to late Jan however the Indian market continued to do its own thing. The reason was mostly the Banking sector delaying the declaration of its worst performance ever. Is the worst over then? So nobody knew that things were going to get this bad you cannot take their word on its end either. So it will be over when it is over. Right now it is still getting worse.
So while markets can diverge in the near term the overall trends of world markets remain the same thanks to the free flow of global liquidity. The first wave of the reflation rally based on the falling dollar and rising commodities is done for now. Global equities as a whole are ready to resume their next plunge lower. I have already put out charts of all key global markets in Asia and Europe that completed wave 2/B up and are starting 3rd waves down. In the US too the Nasdaq took the lead. So today Nifty breaking 7770 marks the start of the next major leg down in the bear market for Nifty too.
Global equities are in a bear market and we are just starting the 3rd wave down in most markets. The Nifty is a complex bear market. Due to the difference in wave structure the Nifty may start the 5th leg down [wave Z] but the Midcap indices will only be in a 3rd [Wave Y].
What is particularly interesting is that the Nifty in this rally formed an expanding triangle at the top of the rally. My past experience with this pattern is that you get a quick and immediate reversal and speed on the way down. The immediate implications of this expanding triangle are a measurement target of 7167 on a break of 7620.At a larger degree we are in wave Z down. 2 trendlines of the highs and lows show an expanding pattern as the bear market progresses. This is different from the usual downward channel seen in most bear markets. So the next move down can easily progress from the upper line to the lower line near 6400. Remember 6600 is approximately 61.8% of the previous bull run from 5118-9116. Note that this is wave Z down and wave Z will be a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C. Wave A of Z itself would break the 6825 low seen recently. Wave B would retrace 50-61.8% of wave A, and wave C at least equal to wave A can go to as far as 6000. Now you can argue for a truncated wave Z that only retests the 7825 low or does not go below 7600. But I am discussing the worst case scenario because of the reasons that follow. A target of 6600-6000 presumes that prices will respect this expanding triangle and its trendlines. However expanding patterns can be violent and so negative events and trends can cause the final wave down in Z to extend in a collapse. In that scenario the long term wave count offers this explanation. On the chart of the Sensex below the 5th wave formed after a breakout from a triangle [2008-2013]. If the 5th wave has ended without extending then the next bear market should test the 4th wave of lower degree. That is the starting point of wave 5 which was at 5118. So a panic reaction in the market in wave Z can take prices to near or slightly below the 5118 level before the bear market is over. The bulls may argue that wave 1 of 5 ended at 9116 and after a correction to 6600 odd we should resume the bull market in wave 3 of 5. This is not an invalid argument. However based on my Kondratieff cycle analysis and the mirror image with the 1992-2001 business cycle I believe that this is less likely. The 5th wave has ended and the next bull market when it starts will mark the start of a new wave and new cycle for the next generation. We are in the last phase of this bear market and the business cycle of 2008-2017.
CONCLUSION
The set up the chart for a near term decline is already there. The wave counts so far unless proven wrong therefore indicate that the bear market goes on. The bear market rally in global equities is over and the next major phase down has started and should see new lows. The Dollar decline should be ending for now and reversing into a rally again. The size of the dollar rally we will figure. This will cause commodities to react down. But gold and silver should remain in long term bull markets despite a correction. The USDINR should start its next major leg up. If Sell in May has to work the charts completely support the adage at this moment. Prepare for the downside
Jai Ram JI KI:thumb::thumb:
The Post budget recovery from an extremely oversold position was good reason for the Bulls to rejoice but the more important call was whether we were back into bull market territory. In a market that is driven mostly by liquidity all arguments can fail. But you need to call a spade a spade. Many start justifying a market rally as a sign that the worst is over. The reason that the market continues to jest the hopefuls is that a final top, in the market driving stocks and distribution in the Midcap/Smallcap segment, was incomplete. Rather than believe in conspiracy theories I would rather say that nobody knows. The study of cycles and market psychology is often ignored and termed as esoteric, or something that few can comprehend. Maybe but if there is a science to the market it is better to know it than be ignorant. I do not talk down either fundamental analysis or economic analysis, I just use it to complement my study of cycles. It is also further amusing that this debate and finger pointing is more prominent in the Indian financial Industry rather than the West. The market discussions in the Western media have matured on this. The science of markets.
So I was expecting an X wave in Jan and yes EMs and EM currencies did bottom by mid to late Jan however the Indian market continued to do its own thing. The reason was mostly the Banking sector delaying the declaration of its worst performance ever. Is the worst over then? So nobody knew that things were going to get this bad you cannot take their word on its end either. So it will be over when it is over. Right now it is still getting worse.
So while markets can diverge in the near term the overall trends of world markets remain the same thanks to the free flow of global liquidity. The first wave of the reflation rally based on the falling dollar and rising commodities is done for now. Global equities as a whole are ready to resume their next plunge lower. I have already put out charts of all key global markets in Asia and Europe that completed wave 2/B up and are starting 3rd waves down. In the US too the Nasdaq took the lead. So today Nifty breaking 7770 marks the start of the next major leg down in the bear market for Nifty too.
Global equities are in a bear market and we are just starting the 3rd wave down in most markets. The Nifty is a complex bear market. Due to the difference in wave structure the Nifty may start the 5th leg down [wave Z] but the Midcap indices will only be in a 3rd [Wave Y].
What is particularly interesting is that the Nifty in this rally formed an expanding triangle at the top of the rally. My past experience with this pattern is that you get a quick and immediate reversal and speed on the way down. The immediate implications of this expanding triangle are a measurement target of 7167 on a break of 7620.At a larger degree we are in wave Z down. 2 trendlines of the highs and lows show an expanding pattern as the bear market progresses. This is different from the usual downward channel seen in most bear markets. So the next move down can easily progress from the upper line to the lower line near 6400. Remember 6600 is approximately 61.8% of the previous bull run from 5118-9116. Note that this is wave Z down and wave Z will be a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C. Wave A of Z itself would break the 6825 low seen recently. Wave B would retrace 50-61.8% of wave A, and wave C at least equal to wave A can go to as far as 6000. Now you can argue for a truncated wave Z that only retests the 7825 low or does not go below 7600. But I am discussing the worst case scenario because of the reasons that follow. A target of 6600-6000 presumes that prices will respect this expanding triangle and its trendlines. However expanding patterns can be violent and so negative events and trends can cause the final wave down in Z to extend in a collapse. In that scenario the long term wave count offers this explanation. On the chart of the Sensex below the 5th wave formed after a breakout from a triangle [2008-2013]. If the 5th wave has ended without extending then the next bear market should test the 4th wave of lower degree. That is the starting point of wave 5 which was at 5118. So a panic reaction in the market in wave Z can take prices to near or slightly below the 5118 level before the bear market is over. The bulls may argue that wave 1 of 5 ended at 9116 and after a correction to 6600 odd we should resume the bull market in wave 3 of 5. This is not an invalid argument. However based on my Kondratieff cycle analysis and the mirror image with the 1992-2001 business cycle I believe that this is less likely. The 5th wave has ended and the next bull market when it starts will mark the start of a new wave and new cycle for the next generation. We are in the last phase of this bear market and the business cycle of 2008-2017.
CONCLUSION
The set up the chart for a near term decline is already there. The wave counts so far unless proven wrong therefore indicate that the bear market goes on. The bear market rally in global equities is over and the next major phase down has started and should see new lows. The Dollar decline should be ending for now and reversing into a rally again. The size of the dollar rally we will figure. This will cause commodities to react down. But gold and silver should remain in long term bull markets despite a correction. The USDINR should start its next major leg up. If Sell in May has to work the charts completely support the adage at this moment. Prepare for the downside
Jai Ram JI KI:thumb::thumb:
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