trader15 trading diary

[trader15]

To document my trading results: Focus on documenting :

a) Entry Signal : Why i entered a trade
b) Exit Signal : What made me exit

Dabbled in day trading : Too much time needed in front of screen. Entered Positional (or swing) Trading now ( 2 days to 1 week).

Tried entering Nifty Futures intraday : Wiped off significant capital due to whipsaws and new comer to day trading nifty futures

Back to option trading to recover my money : Do what you know.

Two goals for trading:

a) Generate monthly income using fixed small corpus of money
b) Generate 2%-3% return/month for remaining corpus : Target beating the inflation and low risk capital investment

My shortcomings till date:
- Too much study, too little focus on 1 strategy or 1 trading instrument
- Not so great money management : Jump in with all capital @ hand
- Not so great entry : Entry has not been disciplined, resulting in long wait periods (And time is money in this life)

My Aim is not to sit in front of trading terminal for whole day. and will focus on that only.

 

[trader15]

Today's Trades:

- Exited 6200 PE and 6300 PE:
- Exit:
- Support @ 6200 levels (6170-6200 Levels).
- 6200 PE recovered to buy price. Time decay resulted in eating the
purchase price and actually in option pricing term this was profitable
trade
- 6300 PE was at profit : Brought @ 105, Sold @ 125

- 6400 CE: Buy and Sold: Status : Loss
Entry :
- Purely based on broker call. Was not convinced, but on broker call and
on logic of 6200 level support, entered the trade.
- Bad part: Entered the trade without conviction
- Good part: Controlled urge to put in all chips, put in 50% chips

Exit:
- Not convinced on entry
- Confused due to reading about Sequential Sell signal.
- Didn't want to carry positions overnight due to lack of clarity

Result: Very minor loss

Lessons Learnt:
- Enter trade with 100% conviction : Don't jump in if no clarity. More opportunities
when clarity comes

- Money Management : Not betting all chips helped in keeping the loss to minimal

- No Emotions: Exits of PE led to emotional thoughts, should have held them, But
in hindsight, looks good strategy to exit. So need to control emotions while
trading

 

[trader15]

Entered NF: Long@ 6259, Exit: @ 6327

Entry Criterion :
Saw charts breaking the 6259 previous close. 5 Day average tick@ 6252.
Stop Loss: 6250

Status:
- False breakout, went down till 6252 and moving back up
- NF Went down to 6249 : Did not exit, options data supporting Upmove: 6200 PE top most traded, followed by 6300/6400 CE
(Analysis proved right : NF back to 6257 levels. Had i closed my position, whipsaw would have eaten 10 points)


Lessons:
- Entry Timing: Entered way too early during sideways movement at 10.30 AM. Should have entered around 11.20 AM post HOD break, and confirmed
by earlier pivot break. (Need to have this discipline in order to reduce my risk)
- Exit : Exited 3 points before Resistance Level: No emotions to catch last 1%. Ended up selling@ top.

Entered: Sold 6200PE @ 79, [email protected]
- Good trade : Puts loose pants faster than CE's as well as drop faster than they rise. So better to sell Put's and pocket decent change quickly.

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Post every good trade, there are bad trades: So I did the same. I need to remove these bad trades from my trading : More of physcology than
actual trading: Moved from +70 to -130 points loss due to bad trades : Details below
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Trade 1: Buy NF@ 6320, Sell@6316 : Net: -4
Trade 2: Buy NF@6336, Sell@ 6231 : Net: -105
Trade 3: Sell 6200PE@61, Buy@64 : Net: - 3
Trade 4: Buy NF@ 6231, Sell@ 6223 : Net: -7
Trade 5: Buy NF@6236, Sell 6200PE@92 : Status : Open

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Now Documenting these trades itself shows me :

a) Over trading done by me
b) Jumping in and out of trades : Without clarity

These two are my biggest enemies and I need to take them down: They will add 40% to my target of having odds of 70% of winning.

Except the Trade 2 : Where I know why i messed up : Not in front of the screen. Here also, I had the opportunity to take 10 points loss before moving out
from the front of my screen. But I went emotional/greedy thinking I'm right, market is in upmove and I'll be back in few mins.. And that took off all.. (I don't use SL..)

One good thing that I see I've learnt and incorporated in my trading style is to book losses quickly. So if I feel I not correct, I'm able to book small loss quickly.

Question is Why I took Trade 5: Despite having Losses and messy trades: Not coz Dar ke aage jeet hai: From physcology perspective, I feared of another round of losses and thought of sitting aside. But then looking at support Levels : 6180: I thought of entering the trade and keeping it open for positional trade.

Target for closing this trade: Friday. We have seen 3 days of correction, small upmove will give me 20 to 30 points in PE short sell, and another 20-30 points in Nifty futures.


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Lessons from Bad Trades:

1. Do not enter till conviction. Will take a break post successful trade to force myself not to over trade
2. No open trades if have to move : Take a loss on screen instead of unlimited loss (No I don't put in SL's as I'm in front of screen while trading)
3. Don't trade reverse of reversal's. Let the trend establish and then reenter
4. Don't bet on ATP's : They don't always work

 

[trader15]

Have spend decent amount of time in understanding TDST by ST. Link : http://www.traderji.com/day-trading/49521-thoughts-day-swing-trading-31.html

Seems we are in Sell mode (Waiting for confirmation of my understanding from ST). That means my earlier trade of holding 6300/6200 PE Positional was on right track.

I got confused by this complex system and large Stop Loss. But isn't that we all look for : system where we can earn 400 points+ in positional trade, without sitting in front of screen, while having ability to absorb 100+ point swings..

Anyways if my understanding of the setup is correct, then on next upmove I'm going to reverse my positions and open short positions in nifty and hold till expiry.

Let's see how market pan's out tomorrow.

Also analyzed the charts;
- Bollinger Band: Show we are at midline. If its broken, we may go down
- Trend Line: Nifty making HH/HL, Tomorrow will be decieding factor
- Ichimoku: Support @ green line today. We are above the Green Cloud.
- Other indicators: MACD/TRIX/Stoch etc all in downturn mode, but mostly
are trailing indicators So not spending much time into them

Macro:
- US : GDP Data good, Consumer Confidence : Low, Jobs Report: Ok
- Europe : Rate Cut and commitment to keep rates low: Next action : QE ?
- USD/INR : Rupee dropping again : Due to OMC's reentering forex market,
and $ strenghting today again against Euro due to ECB
- Key Events : Inflation and IIP Data due next week (Major Triggers)

 

[trader15]

So TDST Looks more complex, yet most rewarding strategy. It is complex as it is not a simple setup/indicator which will tell me : Go Long/Go Short for N Days. It will only tell, downtrend started or upmove started.

It is like river is flowing and you want to put your boat in down or upstream directions. While going downstream or upstream, there will be minor or major reverse trends.

Same case here : There may be upmoves/downmoves in every direction. We need to ride those. But the system tells you : Market Direction : Broader direction.

This word "broader" is key here to understand. So we don't get carried away. as it has 100 point swings within major trend. So we need to ensure we are in direction of those 100 point swings to enjoy upmove within broader downmove

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After reading few more posts on TDST and recent posts by ST: My understanding is there is one more upmove (6300+) remaining, before we start the slide down.

As per ST: The stop loss is 6380 (Spot) And 6415 (NF) for the reversal of TDST Sell Signal.

And in another post: 6245 NF is key for tomorrow.

Let's see how these hold based on trade tomorrow.

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[trader15]

This is current OI Build up.

Today's OI Build up@ 11.40 AM

This is 28 Oct OI Build up

The setups are similiar. The 28 Oct setup was prior to strong upmove in nifty. If we see, the low strike CE's have no significant buildup in falling market too, and the re is large build up below max pain in puts.

 

[trader15]

Is this a breakout failure setup:-

If it is, then I need to close my positions and reenter

On contrary, the SBIN/LT/ITC moving from negative to positive zone.. Lets wait and watch. Levels to be taken out for real move: 6220, 6223,6228 (HOD)

11.20 AM: 6220 holding up. Bear Engulfing bar, Long bar, followed by long green bars: Tug of war : again bears : 6220 holding strong

Tug of war @ 11.40 AM

12 AM: Hammer@ 6200 levels : Potential Trend reversal

 

[trader15]

Trade 1:

Entry : BankNifty : 11500 Call@ 157
- Idea : Based on broker call.
- Analysis: if nifty moves up, which I'm long, then BNF will move up too
- Conviction : Low: Due to no clarity on Nifty moving up due to current status
of charts. No clear pivot taken out

- Reason for trading : Never traded in Bank Nifty options. Taking test ride

Learning:-

1. BNF options are more volatile than nifty : Lovely movements: Not sure why I never tried it earlier : Sounds yummy
2. Spread is Rs. 1 + always


Trade 2:

Entry : 6300CE@55 : Target : 68
- Idea based on broker call
- Analysis: Picked it up around 6180 NF. Now if my current holding will go up, so will this position. and will help square off few losses in
current holding

Learning:
- Entered not due to analysis but due to Greed: More money.. and lack of money management: Have money , chalo laga dete hai jab tak my wallet
is not empty

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3.10 pm : Question : What should I do with open trades@hand:
1. Short Sell 6200PE@92 : CP: 101 (-9 pts)
2. Long NF@ 6236 : CP: 6196 (- 40 pts)
3. Long 6300CE@ 55 : CP: 54.45 ( -1 pts)
4. Long BNF 11500@ 157: CP: 127 (-30 pts)


Exiting:
Trade 3: Long 6300CE@55 : Exit Price@

Rest 3: Keeping open
- BNF:- Seperate than Nifty :- Can move up or down : So can hold till expiry
- Short PE: Small upmove from here will give me exit. Plus time decay will help
- NF: Long: Still holding : Stop Loss will be 6080.

Another thing is : Today may be 315 Crossover for Nifty. We had touched EMA 15 yesterday, and today if it crosses over, we are surely in downtrend.

Update:-
- 6180 is 20 Day SMA for Nifty Futures. Good chances of small bounce back from here
- VIX is down post 2.20 pm : Helped in containing losses on Short Puts

 

[trader15]

US Data mix of positive and negative. High GDP Growth numbers, high jobs data.. low consumer confidence, high unemployment rates.. mix signals from Fed.

US markets zoomed up post the deciphering of jobs data showed that actual meat is missing and its temp numbers...

Key to watch will be inflation numbers on Monday...

My take is that Monday we will see the last move up... may be strong move..

And inflation data obviously will be higher.. which will be trigger for the sell setup to complete...

 

[TraderRavi]

Key to watch will be inflation numbers on Monday...

My take is that Monday we will see the last move up... may be strong move..

And inflation data obviously will be higher.. which will be trigger for the sell setup to complete...

inflation data is on friday the 15th