Thoughts on "The A to Z of trading career - musings of a professional trader !!"

Vipul_84

Well-Known Member
Hi Madan,

Reading your all posts time & again. They contain huge wisdom from actual verified performance. Salam Sir !!
I wanted your inputs on EXPECTATIONS.

Let me describe how my thought process is working after reading your posts. Firstly I started sailing in the ocean of my own subconscious mind. Trying to find myself and my belief system. What I have realized is the major reasons for my loses till date are HIGH EXPECTATIONS. I often guess trading direction right with my system in place, but goof up with position sizing. That to say, I am really good at maths but when it comes to trading somehow something goes wrong and I end up placing huge bet which eventually hurts me.

When I read your post on how much a trader should be capitalized on to trade 1 lot of NF, and we came to figure of 1,12,500/- approx.(considering 25 losses in row betting 2% stake), you said to earn 18 lakhs of pure income excluding taxes, (or 24 lakhs of total income before tax) one needs to trade 44 lots for 50% returns on capital. When I did reverse maths to find how many yearly NF points this translates to, I was shocked to see (2400000/(75*44))= 730 and I was really shocked. My system does give me these results for all these years with very acceptable DD.

Now here is my confusion: I read in your interview that your using Fixed Ratio method to really multiply your account till it came to sizable account. Now if I start with humble capital of say 5 Lakhs (I am not depending on my trading income as of now), what expectations should I have to get it to sizable account?
 

lemondew

Well-Known Member
Madan,
Thanks for the detailed reply. Now you have a good deal of questions. Me still stuck with risk management.

For benefit of others on backtesting. Dont backtest on nifty index if your going to trade futures simply because futures data is not continuous due to expiry . The results of trading may vary from backtesting and this may lead to psychological problems which madan posted. If the results are ery different from backtesting then it may lead to confusion. Its better to tweak the backtest code to work on futures data.
 

lemondew

Well-Known Member
Back to ratios. Madan, the ratio which you had discussed in your earlier post is the MAR ratio
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/mar-ratio.asp

The other ratio is calmar ratio. its the same average Annual returns/ max drawdown but calculated for every36 months.
https://www.fool.com/knowledge-center/what-is-a-calmar-ratio.aspx

Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones says a long term calmar ratio of 2-3 is very good.
https://kjtradingsystems.com/two-important-numbers-to-trading.html

Just putting an example so theres no confusion. lets say we have for years all the tax/fees calculated
2008 - 2010 average returns 2000 points, max draw down - 500 points
calmar ratio 4
2010 - 2013 average returns 2100 points, max draw down - 700 points
calmar ratio 3
2013 - 2016 average returns 1000 points, max draw down - 2000 points
calmar ratio 0.5
Long term calmar ratio is 2.5 but here
Average returns per year for 9 years is 1700. Max drawdown is 2000 points which happened a year in between 20013- 16. This makes mar ratio of less than 1.

Now my question you were talking about systems with mar ratios of 4 in swing trading. Is it really possible. Do you have such a backtested system . I am unable to figure out something which has mar ratio of more than 0.8 - 1 in the last 10 years. But calmar ratio of 2 is attainable. I am trying simple trend following with trailing stop.
 
Last edited:

madank

Market participant
@madan You quoted in the post that " the gap is only small that separates marginally profitable and highly profitable traders" You mean to say that if we can adapt the fact that what we are earning is not easy money but earning after so much effort and struggle, facing unlimited risk on each trade. :)
I request you to give specifics of Hypnosis or visualization or any other technique to tackle the issues listed above....
@praveen98 - I did not mean that way. That point was mentioneed to highlight the fact that we need to focus on our own mental psyche (internal factors) if we are getting stuck in this profession. This is under the assumption that money mgmt and trading edge are in place. It was not as specific as the point you are mentioning.

With respect to your problems, i believe you are focussing too much on the P/L part. Please focus on the 'process' part of trading and P/L will be taken care automatically. I understand that 'it is easier said than done' but we need to steer our thought process towards that direction. No option really.

1. Some people do self-hypnosis and some take professional help. Usually, people are very judgmental about hypnosis, and their associations runs directly to those what stage hypnosis shows, or to mind control. Forget all of that. It’s one of the most powerful ways to change your program. I’m not going to spend time defending it, and give you valid facts about it. Instead, I’m going to tell you how it works, and tell you that it only work if you allow it to work. You can never, ever become hypnotized against your own will. It actually works very simple. First we have the induction. That’s a process that takes away your critical factor. In other words, it deactivates your conscious mind, and you’ll get access directly to your subconscious mind. When you are there, (it’s actually like sending heat sensitive missiles) you go back to the event that caused the problem for the first time, and you neutralize it. By neutralizing the event, the energy dissolves and you are free.

So basically, hypnosis consists of two main parts, the induction and the hypnotic therapy session. During the induction, the subject is asked to relax. He will be constantly talked to by the hypnotist and led into a state of focused relaxation. The induction sends away the conscious mind (the analytical and the rational mind), in order to get access to the subconscious mind, where everything is stored and still active. When you get there, then you’re able to relive the event. By doing that you’re able to process it and to release it. Please do more research on it if you are interested. USA has certified technicians in this filed but not sure about how this works in India.

2. Have said enough about psychocybernetics :)

When I read your post on how much a trader should be capitalized on to trade 1 lot of NF, and we came to figure of 1,12,500/- approx.(considering 25 losses in row betting 2% stake), you said to earn 18 lakhs of pure income excluding taxes, (or 24 lakhs of total income before tax) one needs to trade 44 lots for 50% returns on capital. When I did reverse maths to find how many yearly NF points this translates to, I was shocked to see (2400000/(75*44))= 730 and I was really shocked. My system does give me these results for all these years with very acceptable DD.

Now here is my confusion: I read in your interview that your using Fixed Ratio method to really multiply your account till it came to sizable account. Now if I start with humble capital of say 5 Lakhs (I am not depending on my trading income as of now), what expectations should I have to get it to sizable account?
Yes @Vipul_84 - we don't need great numbers if we can do 95-100% execution of our system. My system makes only 1600-2000 NF points per year. Well, ask any of the traders here (who have been trading for atleast 5 years and dont have to be necessarily profitable) and we will hear that if they had followed their well-thought out system/plan, they would be much better off than where they are right now. This is a known fact in trading but many wont accept it as 'accepting it' might put us into the situation of accepting respeonsibility for our actions. This will also strip us out of our luxury of blaming 'outside' factors for our failure :)

Fixed ratio was used to increase small capital to decent size capital (assuming the trader's psyche is right..any amount of MM/edge will not help if we are mired with emotions and acting based on it). I think you should not have any expectations while running your system. Just keep a watch on the max DD and keep trading it. Profit part will take care of by itself. NO EXPECTATIONS might be the key for your revival.


Now my question you were talking about systems with mar ratios of 4 in swing trading. Is it really possible. Do you have such a backtested system . I am unable to figure out something which has mar ratio of more than 0.8 - 1 in the last 10 years. But calmar ratio of 2 is attainable. I am trying simple trend following with trailing stop.
Cool @lemondew . You got the terms for these ratios :) Thanks.

Well, calmar ratio (what i have been talking all along) of 6/7 for intraday and 4 for swing will enable us to compound faster. If it is less than the number am quoting here, no issues. It will be a bit tad difficult to compound in the pace we want to. Nothing wrong if the system has lesser than what am quoting !!

MAR ratio - i have no comments on this one as i dont see that metric. @ncube might help you there as he was well-informed on this subject.

Bottomline - all these are just numbers and you seem to have a decent system (much better than what am running for the last several years). Keep executing it. Good luck !!

Will end your question with this quote - "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"

--------------

Quick announcement

As you all know now, i like to share and write. My wife has been insisting me on writing a book and i have obliged. Am planning to write a book in trading (working on draft..am sure there will be multiple drafts) and was talking to an author (who has authored a trading book in India). After the conversation, i have decided to stop posting in traderji or any other public forum as i might use my wordings/sentences in the book and it might lead to unnecessary complications for me in the future.

Hope to take some help from members (as most of them are traders and have read few trading books) here on reviewing the book (once am satisified with the 'workable' draft) :)
 
Last edited:

lemondew

Well-Known Member
Madan,

Its great to have met you here in the forum. We have been fortunate. All the best with your endeavor.

Some topics for your book which I havent heard from you is about compounding to scale up/down. Getting into a position in one go Vs through adds .




--------------

Quick announcement

As you all know now, i like to share and write. My wife has been insisting me on writing a book and i have obliged. Am planning to write a book in trading (working on draft..am sure there will be multiple drafts) and was talking to an author (who has authored a trading book in India). After the conversation, i have decided to stop posting in traderji or any other public forum as i might use my wordings/sentences in the book and it might lead to unnecessary complications for me in the future.

Hope to take some help from members (as most of them are traders and have read few trading books) here on reviewing the book (once am satisified with the 'workable' draft) :)
 

praveen98

Well-Known Member
:happy:--------------

Quick announcement

As you all know now, i like to share and write. My wife has been insisting me on writing a book and i have obliged. Am planning to write a book in trading (working on draft..am sure there will be multiple drafts) and was talking to an author (who has authored a trading book in India). After the conversation, i have decided to stop posting in traderji or any other public forum as i might use my wordings/sentences in the book and it might lead to unnecessary complications for me in the future.

Hope to take some help from members (as most of them are traders and have read few trading books) here on reviewing the book (once am satisified with the 'workable' draft) :)[/QUOTE]
Thank You Madan for the detailed reply...And " All the Best " for your endeavor to publish a book about trading....:happy: Hope Your book will be a guiding compass and practical work book to many a new trader so that they will become great traders...
 

kingsmasher1

Well-Known Member
1 B – Amount needed to be a full-time trader

If your system has made 50% every year for the past 10 years, then capital needed is 50 lacs to trade full time. One important point to remember here is that you can trade only 5000000/112500 worth of lots (from the previous section calculation) here and calculate your returns accordingly. So, number of lots comes to 44.
The concept of 50lakhs to be a full-time trader sounds a bit of an oxymoron to me from practical point of view.

If i have only around 50 lakhs in my account, and me and my family's daily critical needs are strongly dependent on only that 50lakhs, i would rather keep it safe in some bank FD or at most some debt based mutual funds rather than risking it in the markets. I might get less, but at least i would get it forever.

And if i am worth a few tens of crores, then my survival doesn't really depend on trading, in that case, it doesn't really matter if i trade with 1 lakhs or 50 lakhs, as if the account is wiped out any number of times, i can get back that capital any point of time due to my huge net worth.
 
Last edited:
The concept of 50lakhs to be a full-time trader sounds a bit of an oxymoron to me from practical point of view.

If i have only around 50 lakhs in my account, and me and my family's daily critical needs are strongly dependent on only that 50lakhs, i would rather keep it safe in some bank FD or at most some debt based mutual funds rather than risking it in the markets. I might get less, but at least i would get it forever.

And if i am worth a few tens of crores, then my survival doesn't really depend on trading, in that case, it doesn't really matter if i trade with 1 lakhs or 50 lakhs, as if the account is wiped out any number of times, i can get back that capital any point of time due to my huge net worth.
I don’t think he ever mentioned that if you have Rs 50 Lakhs,put all that as a trading capital....someone may have Rs 100 Lakhs or Rs 150 Lakhs as total capital and he can put Rs 50 Lakhs as trading capital and remaining 100 L as capital generating other income streams or fixed income streams....

Smart_trade
 

kingsmasher1

Well-Known Member
I don’t think he ever mentioned that if you have Rs 50 Lakhs,put all that as a trading capital....someone may have Rs 100 Lakhs or Rs 150 Lakhs as total capital and he can put Rs 50 Lakhs as trading capital and remaining 100 L as capital generating other income streams or fixed income streams....

Smart_trade
@ST sir, for me putting 1/3rd of my total net worth (50 lakhs out of 150 is still a risk). Somewhere i read, or heard in his interview that Rakesh Jhunjhunwala out of his complete net worth of 30k crore, puts only around a few lakhs for trading - An amount so insignificant that he doesn't really mind, if it is lost any number of times, to get him back to the markets whenever he can, and here we are talking about one-third of net worth.

And if someone have a few thousand crores, they won't really bother about their trading income, and taking all that pressure putting 50 lakhs at stake, unless he is someone like Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who is one in a million.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads