Thoughts on my first month trading

#1
A chronology of my thought process/journey after trading my own money for a little over 1 month.

BACKGROUND
I used to work in the financial sector for a bulge bracket bank in New York City. The guy you see on TV wearing a suit walking down Wall Street? That was me. While there, I traded some of my money part time and had huge success. This was the time when the credit crunch hit and it didn't take much analysis to figure out what was going down (everything). I didn't like my job very much and had a decent amount saved up so trying my hand at trading for a living seemed like a no-brainer since I genuinely love it and didn't want to waste my life at a job I hated. Which is what led me back to India. It had nothing to do with a love for my country, patriotism or any of that nonsense. The opportunity was there, I took it.

SETTING UP AND THE FIRST FEW DAYS
Living in a small town in coastal India has its advantages. None of them have anything to do with helping you trade however:). After a few back and forth visits, my account was finally up and running. All I had to do now was to wait for my money to come in! Meanwhile, my anxiousness to start was eating me up. I decided to paper trade till my money came in.
Looking back, I was a headless chicken but at the time I could have sworn I was intelligently guessing. Example (please try not to laugh) "The total quantity sold for XYZ is greater than total quantity bought. Hence it must be going down!". It took me all of 2 days to be appalled at the ratio of effort to gains. Time for a more rational approach.

MACD+(RSI/ROC)*MA(20)-WEMA(200)= Uhhh?
Given my background, I already knew quite a bit about technical indicators but didn't know how to use them intelligently. I didn't have the usual newbie problems of ignoring stop losses. After being around people who lose millions a day, a stop loss leaves quite an indelible mark!
Anyway, I explored the world of indicators and oscillators and started using some of them. I backtested my methodology and was encouraged by the profit%. After a week's worth of trading though, I was in the red. Something was wrong. I didn't feel like I knew what I was doing. So I took some days off to figure out what was off.
The answer? Well, I was expecting the price to behave based on what the indicator said and not the other way around! Indicators are just that, indicators! A deeper understanding was necessary of market dynamics and price patterns.

HIGHER EDUCATION OR: THE STUFF I SHOULD HAVE LEARNED IN COLLEGE
The itch to get back in for some action was too strong to resist and I went in with defined risk limits and stop losses. I ended up losing money in all my trades. Meanwhile, I was reading up on price patterns and S/R dynamics. I still needed to see it work in realtime and the only way was to put my money on the line. Again. That's the only way anyone ever learns.
This time around, I made some and I lost some. Overall, I was still in the red and growing concerned but I consoled myself by reflecting on how I had some basic method in place. I made a list of the things I didn't know at this point and started to work on them. Needless to say I'm still working on the list but checking off the initial few items such as "What kind of a trading pattern does my psyche support?" and "What is my holding period, how long can I sit still/sleep at night with an overnight position?" helped me immensely. And then, I found it, the holy grail! My million $ baby!

ANATOMY OF A METHODOLOGY
After figuring out what kind of patterns my psyche could support, I explored trading methodologies on a high level. Swing, position, momentum etc. (Daytrading was never my thing). I found one that matched and read up on it voraciously. I ignored the list I had made. I took a week off with the intention of using the first half to study and the second half to paper trade. My paper trades showed a handsome profit! I double checked my entries, exits and charges etc and the number still stood! Is this how it feels when you make it as a trader?
The next week dawned and I was ready. A cold, calculating bast*rd ready to relieve novices off their money. By the end of the week, I had lost on every single trade I placed. My money management skills have always been up to scratch, hence I limited my losses greatly.
I was distraught. I viewed myself as a failure. Over the weekend, I reviewed my methodology and suddenly realized it wasn't a methodology as much as a feeble framework of patched up ideas and indicators. Instead of working to fix it as I usually do in such situations, I broke down. I grew frustrated and lashed out at anything around me. The first half of the next week, I still traded just to see how much I could lose. After every loss, I sarcastically congratulated myself. The rate at which I was losing money I calculated, I would be out of money, money that I had worked 14 hours a day for 4 years and saved up painstakingly, in 25 months. And then something clicked.

FIRST RULE OF MAKING MONEY? DON'T LOSE IT
So said Warren Buffet.
I cannot define what made me pick myself up out of my destructive pattern but I soon found myself tweaking my previous methodology to make it more sensitive. I realized my backtest and paper trade settings were flawed and needed adjustment. I started recognizing price actions. I stopped trying to predict what the stock would do next but built rules for every single trade. To keep track and to help me remember, I wrote them down for reference. I realized what my methodology is really about and how to manage risk.
Or so I think. As of now, I'm still in paper trading mode and the results are encouraging. I'm not staring at my screen for 6 hours a day watching candles form and I've learned the key role patience pays. I still have have to trade my money though. You never learn more about yourself as a trader until your money is in the market. I'm guardedly optimistic.
I'm working on my list meanwhile and have come to realize, there is no perfect setup. All you have is the least imperfect one. After that, price is all that matters. Price is also the biggest indicator, not something that's derived from it.
And no disrespect to anyone on this board, but astrology and stock tips from some member sure as hell aren't any way to make money. If you're using astrology to predict market behaviour, I have some fantastic sub prime mortgage CDO's I'd like to sell you!! :)

Thus far I've been trading for about 5 weeks and have lost 6.25% of my account. Updates next month as to my progress. Thank you for reading.
 

rajsingh

Active Member
#3
@ Vivek,
I found your narrative pretty lucid and well thought out. You could try your hand at being a part time scribe while you learn the ropes.:) Just a thought..
 
#4
My 2nd month

NEW SYSTEM, NEW BEGINNINGS
At the end of the previous month, I had developed a trading system which was showing me paper profits but was untested with money on the line. I still had worries with this though since, the primary buy/sell signals were being generated by indicators and it was a bit detached from the price action. I still didn't have a very good idea of S/R dynamics.Hence overall, I was a bit worried about success.
However, the profits from the dummy trades erased doubts and I decided to risk my usual amount. Needless to say, I lost on all trades. In hindsight it seems foolish that I went in with the usual risk limits on a system I didn't have full faith in, but I didn't think this way back then.
Putting the first few trades off as an inevitable loss, I went in again. And I lost again. This time it really stung. Time for some tweaking.

A PROBLEM AND A REALIZATION
I made changes to my system to make it more receptive to price action (based on my judgement). Now came another problem, one which I dreaded all along. The backtest.
Its easy to backtest a system based solely on indicators but how does one go about backtesting a system which is based primarily on candle formations along with an analysis of previous bars' action and volumes? I despise coding anything even though I'm quite good at it and kept putting the backtesting off. Thus I lost a few days time to laziness and fear and delayed my realization of an important lesson.
Backtesting is bogus. There I said it. I know I will get reamed by some on here but I don't think it applies to a trading system which relies on human judgment for the most part. I am not a program trader sitting on a million bucks' worth of supercomputers processing my trades. I am not a bond arbitrageur who needs to leverage a billion on a few pennies worth of spreads.
What I am is an equities trader who swings a minuscule line with a dodgy power backup system. To recreate and account for all possible variables via code is a developer's wet dream. It is however a waste of time for a trader the kind of which this forum is mostly comprised of.

FINDING SUPPORT, MEETING RESISTANCE
Meanwhile, there was bull run on. Nothing's easier than making money in a bull run I figured. Time to erase some of my losses. I did not however chase the breakouts since the risk limits would have been violated. Instead I sat back and waited for the pullbacks. Meanwhile I had been educating myself on S/R dynamics for a while and thus felt reasonably confident about the correction levels.
Well, the pullbacks came and went and none of my levels were hit! The only time it was hit it turned into a loss as the correction turned into a range instead of going back up. Further analysis of this showed that my prediction of S/R levels was missing an important element, the MAs! I had assumed for some reason this wasn't as strong a support as some other levels out there and kept missing the corrections. All the while I had been assuming a constant bull run, it had been correcting to expected support and I kept missing it. I was just thankful that this lesson didn't cost me as much as my previous ones.

STOP, STOP, STOP!!
I quickly rectified this problem in my analyses and started to wait for pullbacks again. Problem was, most of the issues I was screening were on the last legs of the run and a longish range was inevitable before the next rush upward. However, I was convinced some of the late risers would have something for me.
I finally had my orders filled at the right levels and as expected, my trades showed initial profits. To plan something and execute it successfully is a beautiful thing! I sat back and waited for the money to roll in. Once again though, the market was waiting round the corner, whip in hand.
The whip came in the form of stop gunning. I had all my profitable trades turn to losses due to the stops being placed at slightly higher than expected levels. What stung more was to see the stocks rise after my stops were hit. To give you an idea, I should have ended the month with a 6% profit on my starting balance if my stops were lower. Instead I lost on a majority of my trades. Again.

MONTH END
I ended last month having lost 11% of my starting balance. So I lost about 4% for the month. Upon reviewing my trade executions, I was quite surprised to see my win% was up to 30% which is a quantum leap from the previous month. The avgwin was extremely low due to a lack of faith in my system. I was taking profits too early for them to be of any significance.
I have made some changes to my system, not fundamental changes but evolutionary ones. Its far from perfect but it is better than the one I previously had. A better understanding of S/R also has helped boost my confidence.

Its hard to explain the progress I've made. On the surface of it, I've lost money in a bull run which is quite pathetic. But my progress has been more of a mental one. I'm not worried about how much I'll make on a trade as much as how much is at risk. I'm also quite proud of how I can read a price chart reasonably well and determine whether I want to trade it or not and if I do want to trade it, at which level. Seeing the price then behave the way I think it will (to a certain extent:D) is the icing on the cake.
I think I'm beginning to understand when the experts say "Its not how much you make but how well you manage risk".

Thank you for reading.
 

alroyraj

Well-Known Member
#5
Backtesting on a database is frequently faulty or misleading since important aspects like entry,exit and buyer -seller spread is not covered/tested.
However backtesting a system live is the best method,it allows you to actual have a trial run. Some stocks have features peculiar to them like their intraday volatility,way of testing resistances,behaviour after reaching the day's peak, retracements, correlation with nifty in terms of downward movement etc. Watching the price action of a few stocks acquaints oneself with the price action and one an earn of those. Quite often we are tempted to chase the near breakout and face days like yesterday with higher than average losses. Any trading system we have works best on a select set of stocks. Just as trading system is selected according to one's personality,similarly one has to mesh/match the stocks best suited to that trading system. It may get boring ironically after you start making profits and having to stick to a few scripts but at least initially try to find those staples.
 
#6
Backtesting on a database is frequently faulty or misleading since important aspects like entry,exit and buyer -seller spread is not covered/tested.
However backtesting a system live is the best method,it allows you to actual have a trial run. Some stocks have features peculiar to them like their intraday volatility,way of testing resistances,behaviour after reaching the day's peak, retracements, correlation with nifty in terms of downward movement etc. Watching the price action of a few stocks acquaints oneself with the price action and one an earn of those. Quite often we are tempted to chase the near breakout and face days like yesterday with higher than average losses. Any trading system we have works best on a select set of stocks. Just as trading system is selected according to one's personality,similarly one has to mesh/match the stocks best suited to that trading system. It may get boring ironically after you start making profits and having to stick to a few scripts but at least initially try to find those staples.

I get the point about observing the behaviour of certain issues with respect to the overall market and picking ones that match the system and by extension one's psyche.
A question: Is there a specific way you go about trying to find such stocks? Or is it trial and error through experience and favourable trade results? As of now I'm sticking to the sensex plus any additional ones my scans throw up. The sensex because it was an easy place to start stockwatching plus the higher volumes.

Re: "backtesting a system live..". Do you mean putting your money on the line and minimizing losses? Or paper trading? Thus far, I've found paper trading helpful but it takes your psychology out of the game. Which is a bit like driving a race car on the XBOX to prepare for a Grand Prix. It leaves the fear out of the process.

What I meant by backtesting was literally coding buy/sell conditions and hitting the backtest button on your favourite TA software.
I'm not including the process of initially entering with lower risk limits to "test run" a system for some time to see if it works within the backtesting umbrella.

Thanks for the reply.
 
#7
I get the point about observing the behaviour of certain issues with respect to the overall market and picking ones that match the system and by extension one's psyche.
A question: Is there a specific way you go about trying to find such stocks? Or is it trial and error through experience and favourable trade results? As of now I'm sticking to the sensex plus any additional ones my scans throw up. The sensex because it was an easy place to start stockwatching plus the higher volumes.

Re: "backtesting a system live..". Do you mean putting your money on the line and minimizing losses? Or paper trading? Thus far, I've found paper trading helpful but it takes your psychology out of the game. Which is a bit like driving a race car on the XBOX to prepare for a Grand Prix. It leaves the fear out of the process.

What I meant by backtesting was literally coding buy/sell conditions and hitting the backtest button on your favourite TA software.
I'm not including the process of initially entering with lower risk limits to "test run" a system for some time to see if it works within the backtesting umbrella.

Thanks for the reply.
For the psychology part, you could buy and sell just the bare minimum amount needed for the instrument. Like, If you trade nifty or any other index's futures, you can buy and sell only 1 lot of nifty or mini-nifty for 1 month or so, until you start making good money in terms of percentage of capital invested.

1 Lot of nifty would require about 30 thousand rupees as margin depending upon your broker. Your aim must be to successfully trade 1 lot of nifty until you feel confident with your trading methodology. The process of trading 1 lot or 100 Lots isn't much different with each other. ;) You just to have add 2 zero's in your buy/sell quantity field.
 
#8
My Third month

OPTIMISM
At the end of the previous (2nd) month, I found my %win had made a huge jump (30% overall) but I still ended up losing money because my average win was minuscule. This came as a surprise to me since it seemed I was losing on almost all of my trades. With this foundation, I was confident of a decent showing in October. I made a few tweaks to my system and waited....and waited...and waited.

IMPATIENCE
I didn't expect to find gold mines with my new tweaks but I also didn't expect to be sitting around most of the time doing nothing! After the market closed, I would run my scans and do my research and find good opportunities everyday. However, when the next day rolled by, price would either cave through my target or never reach it. Hence, I barely executed anything. Impatience started to set in and I found it increasingly hard to control myself and follow my system. To counter this, I wrote down a list of my weaknesses everyday, by hand, to enforce sanity. I must say this really helped.

LAZIN....YAWWN
The non activity had another disturbing side effect. I became lazy. The constant pattern of finding suitable candidates only to have them behave unfavourably caused me to half-**** my daily analysis. I didn't trade when I did this since I was aware of what makes me fail. As part of my learning process, I was reading trading books and articles and all of them hinted at the non activity being a sign of progress (this doesn't apply for intraday traders I think). Despite this, I still found it difficult to concentrate and work after the market closed.Eventually all these bad habits caught up to me and I made a mistake I shouldn't have. I ended up taking a loss when I should have had a huge gain and this pretty much ended my laziness for a while. I guess there aren't too many alarm clocks better than the market :).

EVEN KEEL
I started applying myself fully again and was soon rewarded with a monster gain. This was my largest gain to date and more importantly it was a perfect trade based on my system. It was timed perfectly, and it took all of my skills, whatever little I have, to evaluate and execute. I was also in the strange position of being happy at the lack of euphoria I felt. Happy to not be happy! Never thought I'd ever type something like that. Anyway, this only boosted my confidence and vindicated my system somewhat. Thus far I had seen how my system could cut my losses short but hadn't had the opportunity to see if it could exit a money making position successfully. That it did gave me great satisfaction.

DISSATISFACTION
The huge gain though brought with it another problem. I started expecting gains with every trade I now made and found it hard to take losses. I still took them but I felt pangs of regret every time I did. Coupled with the lessened activity I fell into lazy mode once again, and once again I took a loss when I shouldn't have. This time it was a position I had no business entering and my dodgy analysis caused the loss. Thus I ended the month on a down note and thought my losses would have erased my gains.

OPTIMISM
Upon review, I was surprised once again. Even with lesser activity, my win% stayed at 30% while my average win far outstripped my average loss. Thus I ended up making money this month. Not enough to erase all my losses mind you but overall, I've lost 9.9% of my account as compared to 10.5% when I started the month. I've decided to tweak my system again but to be honest, I still don't know how to fight off the laziness. As usual, I will keep plugging away. Scylla's heads are nothing compared to the many headed monster that it your own self!

Thank you for reading.
 

Capricorn

Well-Known Member
#9
Re: My Third month

OPTIMISM
I've decided to tweak my system again but to be honest, I still don't know how to fight off the laziness. As usual, I will keep plugging away. Scylla's heads are nothing compared to the many headed monster that it your own self!

Thank you for reading.
Get a free demo trading account and hone your skills while u wait for a trade.:)
 

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