The Commodities Review For the Week of December 19, 2011

[pitgurufk]

Softs Review for This Week: October 3, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of October 3, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer​

The more the Soft complex asserts its ability to shrug the frequent crisis management seen in the world economy and focus upon their own individual fundamentals, the better. While most are food stuffs, cocoa and arabica beans (NY) can be viewed as more of a luxury. Cotton and sugar are staples, and OJ... well that is another story altogether, which I do not care to get into at this time. What do I mean that cocoa and arabica beans are luxury items? Well, they aren't critical as say rice, corn, and wheat in regular diets around the world, but rather they are viewed as almost a treat.

Now I don't know about you, but I will always enjoy my morning cup of coffee. Its an addiction for me. I like quality coffee and prefer a dark french roast with a splash of real cream. I have tried cheaper brands, but it disgusts me to some extent as they are not enjoyable, much less palatable. All this leads me to wonder (since demand for coffee has steadily grown by about 2.4%): are other coffee drinkers of a similar vein? I think many are, at least enough to consider that while quality coffee will be desired, quantity of demand may not rise as steadily. In fact, demand may actually drift downward as quality wins over quantity. Supplies of robusta keep growing, but much of that from farmers in Vietnam. Even Brazil is expected to provide a record robusta crop, so what about Arabica? Right now there are moisture concerns evident, but the latest forecasts call for cold fronts and I don't think the situation is as dire as it is people talking their positions. All that being said for the coming week, am looking for NY to prove that a seasonal low is occurring. But remember, it is hard to turn around when the gravity of the macro markets is dragging you down...

Sugar genuinely looked as if it was headed down to the lower twenties, then we had the big recovery, a correction rally on Thursday. In the immortal words of Marv Albert, "It was a kick save, and a beauty!" How could you not be encouraged by that price action. Yes, sugar was oversold... show me a market that isn't... And it seems users stepped up to take on positions at a time when the markets were, well, shall we say on semi-holiday? What with the Jewish holidays, you know the old expression, buy Roshashanna, sell Yom Kippur. Well, if you didn't know, you know now. I kind of like the sugar as long as it stays over 25 cents give or take 30 points in SBH.

Cocoa, looks like it is way oversold and a strong candidate for a bottom to be established. Only one problem, it hasn't. Yet... I think all the bearish news that can come out in cocoa has come out. Not that there is peace, but there has been prolonged stabilization politically in the Ivory Coast. And if I read one more news report of the surplus of cocoa I might just pull my few remaining hairs out. The market does seem as if it is trying to bottom. So, accumulating long positions for any contrarian seems worth a shot. I may sell covered calls, or put back spreads there. Selling at the money calls and buying multiples of out of the money calls on a ratio.

That leaves cotton. What a dog. Cotton can't get out of its own way. Maybe specs still being long (and unwilling to get shaken out) has something to do with it. Time used to be 94 cents was a high, now it seems like a floor. At least it has acted as if its one. And like cocoa, at least on the demand side of the equation, what more bad demand news can come out? Exports this past week showed marked improvement, but maybe mills aren't interested in chasing prices. They got away with not chasing them on the last couple of run ups, but at a cost of doing business in an above-board manner. Anyway, there is a part of me that looked at Thursday price action and wanted to see it rise above 105 the next day. It didn't, falling instead. Just goes to show you reality of the situation. Outside markets still have a major grip on the softs complex. Sideways expectations between 95 and 105.

The markets in general seem very laden with a lack of confidence, Therefore, it will be difficult to see any serious rally efforts be successful, unless short covering gets carried away.

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of October 17, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of October 17, 2011​

This was my second weekend in a row with lots of driving, this time to Baltimore and back, and my granddaughter's birthday was great! Elsie Jane is 1 year old! Great party, wonderful food, all in all a special time. Speaking of driving, what is driving the markets? Weakness in the US dollar seems the best response to give for this past week, as several soft markets performed what began as short covering corrections well enough, to give rise to work at turning trends around. Coffee heads that list, with cocoa and sugar right behind. And even Cotton didn't fall apart after receiving a negative crop report, but it still doesn't look to have the positive potential seen elsewhere in the soft complex. For the week ahead it will be important to see a follow through and higher prices. It also will be important to withstand any bearish efforts to press values.

Granted much traction was gained from a weaker dollar, but is the Euro out of the woods? While America sure has its share of problems, it has been Europe where the sovereign debt issue got its start. Crude oil prices have a decidedly positive look and that market often leads. Stock prices too appear prepared to advance. With both of those important outside markets setting a positive tone I tend to lean likewise towards the soft markets. If KCZ manages to travel above 246, 250 and 260 become valid targets. Sugar and Cocoa are also showing signs of positive appeal, both also may be correcting from their oversold conditions, yet finding encouragement as they too have staged advances. CCZ needs to show itself able to rise over 2700, while SBH will have to weather any setback although given the action last week the trend looks up. Cotton looks locked in a range, although even there traders saw a market able to recover after a bearish crop report.

So for the week ahead it will be a matter of continuing to make progress price wise for the soft complex. Will outside markets continue to offer help? Can prices withstand some set backs? I cannot say I am confident that they will, but they sure performed well enough last week to have a positive feel for a change. The big question is can they continue? I still can't believe that another shoe isn't about to drop on the world stage, so I remain skeptical. In sum, the positive tone that is trying to emerge needs to show it is able to continue, otherwise selling is apt to return and drive values lower. Bottom line I am a skeptic and may look at selling.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of October 17, 2011​

Coming back from the weekend there is little general excitement in the trade and the world. There is yet a solution to the EU debt situation but the G20 conference gave them a week to get their ship in order. We will see how that goes with Merkel. The Euro is lower this morning but nothing dramatic with crude offering limited momentum to the trade. The fundamental side remains quiet as harvest rolls along. Demand for beans remains strong offering a reason to hold longs on any pullback today. Driving to the Grand University of Illinois this weekend I saw field work all along I-57. There are only a few visible bean fields remaining while corn still stands as far as the eye can see. This is a reason to note the recent moves in meal spreads. With bean crushing resulting in meal closer to 44% protein than 48% protein there is a problem. The very late move in SMV-SMZ could be indicative of a future move in SMZ-SMH. The current 4-5-dollar carry is about 60% of full carry calculated at 7.35. The limited risk of this position versus the unlimited potential of a bull spread squeeze is enticing. Demand for meal is obvious following the recent USDA meat export numbers showing a major increase in both Chicken and Pork while beef suffered. The increases in Chicken and pork specifically to China is also notable showing an almost 50% increase month on month. This poses an interesting dilemma for feeders. Do they jump right back in with both feet following the recent drop in price looking for the trend in Chinese demand to remain? On the production side Ukraine cut their winter wheat acreage by 1 million hectares but increased their exportable surplus to 23-24 MMT. This hit both milling and feed wheat cash values in Europe and western Asia. Shifting to S. America, Argentina has seen needed rains recently but is still looking for long term losses in wheat currently estimated at 11-12 MMT. This is the only real bullish production forecast following recent rains in Australia. To prove world values are cheap, Iraq bought 350 TMT world wheat skipping the US on everything.

The overnight session was mixed with an upside attempt by corn thwarted by a slightly stronger USD and Dalian markets trading lower. The lack of fresh demand data also tempers corn during harvest. Talk of agribusiness cuts going in front of Congress is worth watching with nothing specific concerning an attack on Ethanol seen. The sad fact is people are losing faith in the USDA due to questionable data. In response the Senate is recommending a 5% cut in funding for NASS and a 25% cut for Census. That will only help calm markets, good job boys.

Heading into the day session there is little fresh to spark the next leg higher. I think it will be a week for spreads more than flat price. The meal spread situation is worth watching.

All in all this week will start off quietly waiting for information from Europe, CPI and PPI, export demand and international weather. Macros are a major factor right now so continue to watch the Euro versus corn correlation. If the Euro rises, so does corn, its a tight one right now, take a look and compare.

The Energies Review
For the week of October 17, 2011​

The energy markets have rallied very nicely the last two weeks as traders and investors alike buy up the sold off crude markets with equities and the Euro rallying. These markets are almost at the top of their recent highs here with the S&P getting to its double top at 1224 and the Euro/USD edging closer to $1.39. These are very significant levels and if the markets rally and close above here the move to the upside could further be sustained. I will likely look at buying some OTM puts as I believe the markets are overbought at these levels. Crude is trading $88.10 in Nov with $90.50 being the most recnt high and with the G20 meetings lined up very soon I believe this market could head back down. WTI and brent spreads have been rallying very nicely and I believe they too are due for a sell off. Looking for Crude to hold the $89- $90 level for now.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Metals Review
For the week of October 17, 2011​

Precious metals have continued to consolidate and climb on the COMEX the last two weeks as Gold pushes higher towards that $1,700 level. The USD has had some significant pressure put on it the last few weeks as it comes up to the critical level of $1.3900. Gold and Silver will have a bit of a time trying to break new levels to the upside here but I believe they are poised to do this. I might look to get into some OTM Gold calls as I believe this market is headed higher. There may be a brief pause in the beginning of the week with the Euro/USd trying to hold the $1.3900 level but I believe the metals will overcome this and rally towards the end of the week.

Copper looking very strong above the $3.40 level but there is some good resistance at $3.50 so I would suggest taking some off the table here as equities are at the top of the range right now. Consecutive closes aboive 1224 in the S&P will confirm the rally.


Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of October 24, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of October 24, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

There are two basic forces at work; the weaker dollar and the poor world economic climate which has raised concern about demand. Add to those the liquidation of fund participation in commodities (although there are some who believe funds are showing signs of attraction to the long side) and you see an environment that has become thin and susceptible to stage swift price moves on reaction to news from the 24 hour news cycle. As a result, look for volatile times this coming week.

Friday's sharply weaker dollar spurred buying on Friday lifting coffee prices sharply. Sugar failed to respond in similar fashion. Cotton firmed on Friday, but was down 5 cents on the week with open Interest rising in cotton by over 2500 contracts, signaling new shorts were the driver behind Thursday sharp price drop. Cocoa languished at week's end after reaching new lows for the season earlier.

As for the surge in coffee, technicians seem focused on a chart pattern referred to as Andrew's Pitchfork, which should Friday's highs (247) get taken out decisively portends a swift move to 265 or 275. A failure should result in a pull back to 230. Volume was superior, validating the move.

Read where one Bank of America analyst thinks that another downgrade of America's debt rating is on the way when the "Supercommittee" blows up in late November or early December. "The credit rating agencies have strongly suggested that further rating cuts are likely if Congress does not come up with a credible long-run plan. Hence, we expect at least one credit downgrade in late November or early December when the super Committee crashes".
Read more here.

The dollar will likely fuel the next big move in the markets, so that should be the focus of attention. Traders continue to anticipate the EU coming to some kind of solution in the debt crisis. However, any final plans are again up in the air as Germany and France are now looking for another meeting on Wednesday, having delayed plans for this past weekend. That leaders are in such disarray and that this weekend's meetings were set back only add to the uncertainty and tension and the potential for calamity. That leaves much hanging upon the result and sets the tone for a sharp reaction to take place in either direction.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of October 24, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Coming back from the weekend we see no resolution concerning the EU debt situation but that doesnt seem to be a bitter pill to swallow. All markets are mixed to modestly higher after Chinese PMI numbers offered support. There is some sentiment that the Chinese contraction pattern has reached its apex offering a positive undertone to Asian markets helping commodities rally back from Fridays losses. Going back to Friday markets had options expiration that proved that the highest open interest is where it will settle. In corn the market rallied early trading above $6.50 only to run out of steam about midsession when the almost inevitable decline back to $6.50 began. This was the highest open interest by far offering the best amount of action and traders saw just that. In the final minutes of the trade I saw a brief move under $6.50 where it closed the day. Beans could not fall far enough to hit any strike of interest with the $12.00 just too much to lose without reason. Wheat was also stuck between a few low volume strikes with the cereal months there trading sparingly. Spreads were very active with corn spreads favoring the bear side most of the session widening by about 2-cents leaving the day around 10.75. I will look for this trend to continue this week as the trade continues to realize we are not out of cornnot now anyways. SX-F saw a nasty turn wider for those riding the bull wave there. This appears to be a profit taking move but there was no movement overnight with this spread sitting 8.75-9 starting the week. I look for this to tighten again but watch bean basis at the Gulf and along the central US river system for direction. Crush demand should be present due to meal demand with the Meal spreads still working in favor of bulls. SMZ-H closed the overnight at 4.50 showing a small recovery for bulls from Fridays wider move in sympathy with beans. Look for the bull side to win this week as continued problems exist with protein in early crushed beans. In wheat traders saw a session that followed corn but showed relative strength due to help from KC and Minny due to protein concerns and planting woes. Bull spreads in KC worked well on Friday only to give up overnightbut we shall see. I think any producer that releases old crop stocks following the recent weather shift to desert like conditions on TX and OK should be questioned. Releasing anything before the new tax year is another questionable move but each to their own. There is likely to be a real serious problem with HRW stocks come spring so I will look for bull spreads to lead the way into that timeframe.

Looking at the week ahead, things should start off like a lamb, higher but without conviction ahead of further information out of Europe. Wednesday now appears to be the day to get that input so look for a mundane first half of the week. No major weather situations early in the week with recent rains in Morocco helping stabilize their ground for planting. As we progress look to the S. plains with any abatement in rains there helping both flat price in KC and spreads. Minny bull spreads should start to light up again in November but there is nothing on the demand side to get them moving dramatically this week. Crude is modestly higher with a positive undertone following the Chinese demand sentiment shift so this should help commodity sentiment across the board.

I will look for a higher tone in agriculture with bear spreads winning in corn and CHI wheat, bull spreads winning in beans, meal, KC and to a smaller degree bean oil. Flat price will see a pop back to Fridays levels with corn needing help to break and sustain for a move to the 100-day MA. Wheat momentum is determined by KC and their weather so look for rainfall totals over KS, TX and OK late this week. Beans will rally early in the week with meal outpacing bean oil as long as crude does not explode. The path of least resistance is to the upside across the commodity sector due to shifting sentiment, not changing reality. There is nothing exciting to start the week so do not get married to early gains. Look for a choppy week with serious swings all over the floor.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Energies Review
For the week of October 24, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

What a crazy week it was in the energy markets as crude rallied in the early part of the week to the resistance of $89.50 but fell big on economic uncertainty to $85 along with the stunning news of Qaddafi's death. The flat price is now higher on the Sunday night session to over $85 in Dec CL as this market just does not want to give up. Every time it gets knocked down it keeps getting back up and the $89.50 level is in jeopardy this week. The Euro/USD is looking to creep back up and break the resistance of $1.39 and if it does I believe Crude will try and test $90. The equities markets have broken the old high of 1225 and I believe this could have more to run on the upside. The DOE numbers will be very interesting so look for these coming out on Wednesday. For right now crude is stuck in a bit of range but I believe the price will have look to try and climb higher with all of the major resistances being breached.

The Metals Review
For the week of October 24, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

A very odd week for the metals. They looked to have all the makings to rally with a shaky equity market and a rallying Euro but instead Gold decided to go in a free fall from $1,670 to $1,600. I loved Gold down at $1,600. I believe it should be bought around those levels, but it was very strange to see Thursday's action with gold falling more than $40 mid week but recouping the losses to trade at $1,650. I still like this market and would look to buy some OTM calls this week, aiming for the $1,700 and above calls.

Copper came down hard to test the lows of $3.00 and held there again before rallying back up some 30 cents to $3.45. Look for copper to continue consolidating and gaining ground as the equities look to be stronger after they broke the 1225 level in S&P.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of October 31, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of October 31, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

On Thursday the bulls came out to play. But is it a Trick? Or a Treat for Bears?

Happy Halloween! In my neck of the woods we were greeted by a major snow storm that snapped tree branches and downed power lines. Power is out in many areas. Even today the trains are not running into NY. I hear that the world population has reached 7 Billion, but it doesn't seem like many of the swelling ranks want to be long in the soft commodity complex.

Last week we saw the bulls came out to buy into the news that Europe has been officially bailed out. Those that were short the market had to cover as well so prices lifted as the dollar weakened. But there are many questions still about the deal, as details need to be be worked out before year's end. therefore remaining a skeptic is what I suggest. And from the looks of things this morning the week ahead will be arduous. So much for the rally side of things...

Predictions for the week, KCZ will trade towards 219 and maybe 211, look to sell rallies. Sugar SBV will visit 24. Cocoa prices will provide interested buyers with the dip they have been seeking, whether or not it receives enough buying results to prove that this market is indeed friendly is the bigger question. Cotton needs to hold above 100, but it likely will try and get there. The biggest factor in the mix will be the dollar. As the dollar goes, so will the markets. Now let's see about those trains...

UPDATE: Effective immediately, and until further notice, ICE Futures U.S. has determined that all customers of MF Global shall be limited to trading for liquidation only. In addition, and until further notice, the Exchange will no longer recognize MF Global or any of its divisions, including the Pioneer Division, as a guarantor for purposes of floor trading privileges. Accordingly, floor brokers and traders guaranteed by MF Global or its divisions may not access the trading floor. The foregoing actions have been taken based on circumstances regarding the financial condition of MF Global.

This news may very well lessen liquidity as there are some market makers who use these firms to clear trades.

Also it is month end and with it, shenanigans may be played. I do note the inflationary climate brewing and that pronounced weakness may offer opportunities for those seeking to work into long term friendly positions in anticipation of inflation.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Metals Review
For the week of October 31, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Well the news from the BOJ created a sell off throughout the metals as gold and silver were both down big along with copper. Gold quickly sold off on the intervention news and went down $30. $1,700 is a good support area and I like that around there on a play back to the upside. Copper touched the huge resistance of 3.75 and quickly shot down to 3.57 as this market will look to consolidate once again.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Energies Review
For the week of October 31, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Huge news over the weekend as the bank of Japan intervenes on the yen causing it to tumble dramatically Sunday night with the yen losing more than -600 points at one point. Crude sold off as well below $93 on the news as most markets were down big. Crude is now in a trading range from $90 to $94 and will look to hold there through this week. Wti spreads have found the footing from last week's decline towards the end and I like buying this spreads in the dip. Keep an eye out for the yen this week as it will dictate how the market will play.

The Financials Review
For the week of October 31, 2011​

By Frank LaMantia

MF Global seems to be on its last leg as the Federal Reserve suspended any business that the company can perform. Shares have been halted and Interactive Brokers may bid in a supervised auction. MF Global may see Chapter 11 bankruptcy after investing in European bonds that back sovereign debt. (1) New rules caused Credit Suisse to cut 1,000 jobs in its investment banking unit. In July the bank mentioned it was planning to cut over 2,000 jobs. There are plans to cut the dividend and cut assets that are risky by $100 million, to reduce the chance of a future financial crisis. (2) After the close today Anadarko Petroleum and Herbalife will announce earnings. Anadarko has found profits in Mozambique and could surprise the industry in the distant future. Herbalife is said to be beating its competitor Avon. (3) There is negative vibe to the markets this morning as Japan intervenes to help the Yen and that Europe may have red tape to clear for austerity measures. Also, HomeServe cannot make outgoing calls after being accused of mis-selling products. A retraining program has been implemented so that staff can provide better information to clients when it comes to products and pricing. (4)

1) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Report-MF-Global-to-seek-Ch-apf-590521534.html
2) http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit-Suisse-to-cut-1000-rb-702668909.html
3) http://www.cnbc.com/id/45077472
4) http://www.cnbc.com/id/45100161

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of November 7, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of November 7, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

The MF Global situation has brought a severe black eye to the industry. There seems to be money missing and there are reports the FBI is involved in a criminal probe. The exchanges took action last week, banning orders other than for liquidation in MFG accounts. But how can you tell which is which without seeing each position? As a result many orders were not handled. In other words, that action, while warranted, proved costly to liquidity and may also have served to injure some of those with positions on, making them unable to transact. Then there is this bit of news released 11.05 by ICE.

https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/futures_us/exchange_notices/EsNot110511MFG.pdf

Apparently RJO has taken over the clearing and administrative role for most remaining MF Global accounts. I can only hope that things improve, but for now keep your fingers crossed. The demise of MF Global will likely bring about more regulation and scrutiny. The safety of investor capital is paramount. But now it needs to be determined if MF Global is alone? Watching and waiting...

In a general sense the soft markets will be apt to follow dollar developments this coming week and Greece, as well as Europe will be the key. Sovereign debt will continue to hold the macro markets hostage to every new twist and turn. Speaking of twist, the Fed confirmed their Twist program to keep interest rates low is to continue. Will events in Europe settle enough that focus will shift back to the US? If so, aren't there significant debt issues here to face?

Regardless, for the near term, with so many things available to influence traders midst thin markets caution is prudent. The current environment has the propensity to fuel dramatic moves in either direction as the markets seem to suffer from a serious lack of liquidity. Keeping positions small and protecting trading capital are high on the list of appropriate approaches. Specifically, 220 to 219 has held (thus far) in KCZ. I continue to recommend owning puts and put spreads until KCZ closes over 236. Cocoa might be willing to try for higher values. Cotton has lost and demand for US cotton doesn't look as though it will improve anytime soon. Sugar prices still haven't escaped the gravity of 25 cents. In sum, it may be a good time to keep your hands in your pockets.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of November 7, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Welcome back from a rather uneventful weekend in the global perspective. MF Global announced that they finished bulk transfers of positions to other firms with only MFG Canada still having any issues with segregated monies. There is a hold on transferred accounts until the end of business tomorrow but this is a relatively minor situation in the big picture. Looking at Greece and the EU traders see nothing exceptional this morning with the Prime Minister still threatening to resign if new measures are not approved. His confidence vote did not go well but he is still in office. Doesnt seem to be the best time to threaten to leave, in my opinion. Another factor this morning is Italian debt which is moving back into focus as many accept that Greece default is a foregone conclusion. There are more G20 and European Union talks scheduled in the near future to combat a worsening of the situation. There are rumors that Berlusconi is going to resign but those are unconfirmed as I write. Shifting to weather, traders saw some rains hit the HRW region in central OK with a thin line moving NNE into SW Missouri. There were good amounts in the small coverage area with more expected today and into tomorrow in central KS and OK. Not much help seen for TX during the current system with the attached map showing an almost preternatural aversion of rain in that area looking as far as the 8-14 day models. The rest of the country will get a good drink while OK and TX are left out again. Weather in Brazil and Argentina is moderating with rains expected in Argentina Tuesday moving NW across much of the needy regions NW of Buenos Aires. Brazil saw weekend rains hit but less than expected. This is a minor concern with the La Nina effect seen as modest at best with a weakening pattern noted in ocean surface temps. The real weather concern right now revolves around Ukraine with reports that 30% of their winter grains crop could be lost due to drought and untimely freezes followed by extreme heat spells. The variability of temperatures are a growing concern. The demand side is a very quiet situation with this causing many to raise their ending stocks estimates for beans heading into this weeks WASDE report. All estimates are listed below. The lack of bean demand from China shows their slowing economy is causing ripples on world balance sheets.

The overnight session closed weaker in row crops but well off session lows with spreads favoring bulls in beans and bears in corn. Wheat showed relative strength led by KC with receipts starting to be a question heading into the period ahead of FND for December contracts. KWZ-H trading into 11.50-cents with more to go in my opinion. With protein scales continually showing strength for 12% or above I see little reason for any producer to let stocks on hand into the marketing stream. As long as the MWZ-MWH remains in a bull spread stance I would look for the front end KC spread to favor the bull.

Heading into the day session there is little today to look for concerning excitement. The Goldman roll officially begins which could favor bears in corn and wheat with the VSR in question with WZ-H trading at 27-cents. This is attributed more to positions shifts as a result of MF Global than any change on the fundamental side so look for a fairly dramatic shift to the bear side in the coming week. A move out to 40-cents is very possible. Outside of the Goldman roll we have WASDE on Wednesday so look for a quiet prereport trade today and tomorrow with spreads the focus of the trade. WASDE is generally expected to lower bean and corn yield with acreage an interesting factor to look at. I expect a small drop in harvested acreage for both possibly offering a catalyst for bulls if the macro situation agrees. As for today and tomorrow, expect a wait and see attitude with Europe and crude still in the drivers seat until Wednesday.

The Energies Review
For the week of November 7, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Will the euro zone debt issues keep a lid on the rising oil price the market has seen in the last two weeks? Crude again rallied just under $95 as this has been a huge resistance point even though the equity market has been on shaky ground. The new range is $89 to $95 right now as this market continues to bounce around. Wti spreads have been coming off recently and so have the arbs. I believe arbs will continue to fall and Brent spreads be bid for in the coming weeks. $95 will likely be tested again in the oil market before this week is over.

***chart courtesy
Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of November 14, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of November 14, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

As traders saw last week, the news stories out of Europe seem to move all markets. Same is true among the softs, but most members of the complex seem unprepared to rally on anything more than short covering at this time. As a result look for a similar week with a downside bias. Cotton and coffee options expired on Friday, with no major surprises. We often see coffee prices drop after such an expiration, so even with some bottom pickers gaining confidence, don't rule out a severe drop, especially if helped by outside market forces.

Sugar values have a mixed tone and now there are concerns about production slow downs occurring which may have a supportive effect. The world still faces a projected surplus so the down trend may resume, but not likely with the vigor traders have seen.

Cotton may have received a short lived perk up as the week approached its end, but fundamentals are still negative and as a result the trend should be lower. Use rally efforts to establish short positions.

Cocoa is the biggest dog among the softs and while I understand the sensitivity there to the British Pound, supplies are more than adequate and therefore likely to continue to drag values down, so selling any temporary strength seems in play.

The big issue right now is liquidity and as long as it remains lower than normal expect volatility to remain high and for prices to move around quickly based solely upon the flow of orders. Good trading, but caution is advised. Keep positions small.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of November 14, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Welcome back from the weekend to a rather unexciting and uneventful trade. Not to say there are not events unfolding but there is nothing I see as overly dramatic to spark any major move in agriculture. This was expressed overnight with corn trading in a tight range slightly higher on the close with CZ-H at 9.75. This occurred late in the session with a range of 8.25-10. Very erratic to say the least. I would look for a trade between 9.25-9.75 to start today. The flat price situation feels like a bullish situation due to 100,000 contracts in fresh open interest added, crude oil prices hovering dangerously close to $100.00 and talk of a shift right back to beans in South America with corn plantings in Argentina lagging way behind. This makes the trade more interested to the upside than to the downside from current levels. Traders may see a bit more consolidation pressure in CH with daily technicals offering more downside pressure. As the daily chart is riding just under the 200-day MA, the weekly chart is riding just under the 38% retracement level at $661.50. Weekly indicators are neutral to positive in the bottom end of the range. This is a decent explanation for the recent rash of long term corn buying. Of all the commodities on the floor, I think corn still holds the best opportunity for a rally. Beans continue to struggle with the demand picture.

This morning saw NOPA come out at 141.179 million bushels crushed in NOV versus the average trade guess of 142.25. If compared with last year at 151.9, I get the idea that demand for meal and oil is weak at best. I see this as supportive both products and if you look at Palm oil, I think you have to favor bean oil over meal moving forward. With July share approaching 35%, I cannot support a bullish bias in share. It may work if crude continues well above $100.00 but that will likely increase crush which will hammer basis as the pipeline fills. As for beans outright, I do not see all kinds of hope for bulls. Trade will probably bounce today due to a hold of the range low on Thursday and Friday. The counter to this is increased acreage talk in Brazil and Argentina as corn plantings lose out. The Chinese interest is weak at best with those long looking to defer shipments until JFM - not cancel, just delay. They can always speed them up again if the market changes. A consistent move by Chinese buyers. The one supportive factor for beans is the weekly chart which is holding the 200-day MA. The last time they tested this level a $1.20 rally ensued in a week. Overall I feel puts are the best way to try to play this market. You get to play your short bias while buying volatility at really low levels. In wheat, the outlook is grim even for HRW. Not that things are all good in the HRW region but there is nothing fresh and nothing on the weather front here to scare anyone. There are no rains expected in central to western growing regions for the next 10-days. Technically wheat is looking for March to hold 634.25 and if so, a rally over the weekly 200-day MA could scare shorts. The only real change for wheat to rally is corn. Look for the inverse in favor of corn to continue to widen but wheat will rally if and only if corn does.

Overall this week appears to be another dominated by money flow and information out of Washington and Europe. Fundamental data is limited to the standard crop progress and export sales with Friday afternoon offering a look at Cattle on Feed which should be interesting. Remember that the USDA doesnt believe we are feeding anything based on their constant attack on feed usage so this report will be entertaining.

The Energies Review
For the week of November 14, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Crude Oil has made it to the upper level in the $90s as WTI settled at $98.99 with the rally holding true late in the day Friday in the S&P. Crude had a very nice run since the low of $74.50 a month and a half ago and looks to try and touch the $100 level this week as this is now the next resistance point. Heating Oil has been on fire recently trading up to $3.17 while Gasoline has gotten hammered (a good thing for drivers) trading $2.58 and looking to keep sliding lower. The arbs have broken out of their trading range with the WTI rallying above -16.00 vs the brent in the Dec contract which was huge resistance. This spread looks to tighten as the WTI is staging a very nice rally right now. I would look to play the Jan $100 puts for right now as I don't believe this market should be trading higher than this given the fundamentals of the economy and the fear of the Eurozone crises.

The Metals Review
For the week of November 14, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Precious metals had a great week last week until Gold hit the wall of $1,800 and got hit back down to $1,750 as investors took profit ahead of the huge resistance. Gold then traded back up again to close out the week but resistance still looms large up at the $1,800 level. The USD has made a nice comeback against the Euro after going above $1.42 two weeks ago the market now sees the Euro/USD at $1.37. Metals will likely be in demand once again and I would suggest being a buyer in the $1,750 area as I feel it is only a matter of time before the market spikes through that $1,800 level.

Copper had a very wild week last week getting hit down hard to $3.30 from $3.60 but then staging a huge rally in the Friday session coming back from $3.30 to $3.48 at days end as the S&P traded up more than 280 points. Copper looks to be in a range now from $3.30 to $3.75 and will look to stay in that range for a little while. I would be a buyer on any dip below $3.30 as this market could head higher in the next few weeks.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of November 21, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of November 21, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

Defense. And I am not referring to the chant from a football crowd, nor Joe Pa's lawyer, but rather using one word to describe the past week of price movement among the Soft markets. Defense.

Because of changes in delivery standards in the ICE cocoa contract beginning with the March 2012 delivery, which limits the amount of cocoa shells and other debris found in shipments, selling has been more aggressive in the December. This rush to deliver may clean out a lot of surplus, it certainly has pressured values. Can this set the tone for a better market? Too early to tell, but the surplus in available supplies needs to work through the pipeline first. Still too early to predict a pick up in demand, but there is some optimism brewing as Barron's mentioned in an article.

Cotton prices flip flopped, first rallying on a reaction to substantial Chinese buying, shown in solid another improvement in exports. Then dropping limit when enthusiasm disappeared. Managed money appears to have been a buyer early in the week, increasing long positions, but the COT numbers do not reflect changes after the weakness and ultimate drop of over 400 points for the week. Even with China buying, mill demand in the world is expected to remain poor, so prices ought to reflect that with little ability to rally.

Sugar prices remain negative and the March contract should continue to probe below 24 cents. Not looking for a huge drop, as there seems to be some trade scale down buying evident.

As for coffee it is so choppy. There is a historical tendency for prices to drop heading towards December, when prices then begin to rise. I remain a bear for now with the lows not far enough away.

Next up in the Macro horizon look for news on the so called "Supercommittee" (I wonder, do they wear capes?) I'll bet the committee isn't so super after all. Watch as talks stymie and with neither side hopeful that an agreement can be reached before next weeks deadline. Each side has their own special interests at heart, but why not its politics? Problem is what effect will this have on the dollar as we head into the holiday shortened week? Look for a partisan showdown in the days before Thanksgiving.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of November 21, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Coming back from the weekend the agricultural trade has nothing I see to offer bulls a handhold. On the macro side, which still dominates, Spanish elections seem to offer no support for the Euro with no real information available concerning debt restructuring ideas. Crude is backing off after bearish world economic talk coming from China. Equities are on the defensive in spite of early sentiment from the retail industry that seasonal sales will exceed expectations. The world economic outlook seems worse today than Friday with the US super committee not agreeing on debt reduction. Heres a novel ideaRepublicans and democrats working together for the betterment of their constituents. It makes too much sense to work in DC. Softs are feeling the negative pressure with both Sugar and Cotton on the defensive after the mass decline seen in Cotton on Friday.

Over the weekend traders saw the COT trim the short in wheat which goes back to the earlier week discussion of the spread movement in WH-Z. The funds are buying back shorts instead of rolling them forward. Funds trimmed length in corn with the market still long 220K. Bean longs trimmed by 20K as well leaving 26K long. Meal is short 21K with oil short 8K. No real surprise after the price action seen last week. Money feels like it is moving to a risk off stance into the end of the year. I cannot blame anyone for this stance. This has been a brutal year for many so ending the pain seems almost logical. I expect to see this money put back into play in the first month of 2012 but that means almost 40-days of low volume chop. This foreshadows abnormal moves like those seen on Thursday in corn. The market is skittish making unhedged flat price positions a very risky situation. More risky than normal because of the erratic price swings caused by money flow leaving fundamentals on the sideline.

Heading into the holiday week the feature is December option expiration. The CZ 600 strike is the all-star here with 38K CZ 600 puts open. The same applies in wheat but only 8K open at the 600p makes this a minor issue but still worth watching considering the CZ12-WZ12 spread. The 10-cent advantage for corn is worth watching to see if there is any impact on Fridays expiration. Outside of options the trade simply needs to find some semblance of support which looks hard to find. Beans (SH) have given up a years gains with a target sitting around $11.30 for bears with indicators supporting a negative stance. Implied volatility in March bean options at 21% makes the puts an attractive purchase versus shorting calls from a bearish perspective. CH looks to gravitate to about 608-610 late this week as CZ approaches 600. The spread between CZ-H should widen moving closer to delivery with the export market for corn evaporating. Ethanol is the only real immediate pull for corn but it is strong. Watch crude for direction here with the Euro also offering great directional indicators. WH is dramatically oversold on the chart and funds should continue to cover shorts into the end of the year. Thats the good news for bulls, the bad news is the rains over the plains offering a break for HRW producers in the eastern half of OK, KS and TX. Rains even fell west of Garden City Kansas but only in scattered amounts. This actually offers more support to Minny in that any real quality wheat produced in southern states comes from the western region as compared with the east. The SRW looks good with ample moisture in many regions offering bears another handhold. The only fear I can find for bears is the fund short. With 45K remaining there is ample ammo for a rally if coupled to the oversold daily indicators.

As for today, the sentiment is lower across the board with beans showing the most weakness. No real issue noted overnight in spreads with someone getting cute with the KWZ-WZ spread on the close tapering it in to 8.75 (carry) versus the 10.5 trade just minutes before. I love that electronic markets are trusted more than human markets. Unreal. Look for a downside day and week as long as the Euro remains under pressure and crude consolidates back under $100.00. Option expiration will be the focus of the trade all week so look for plenty of action on either side of $6.00 in CZ.

The Energies Review
For the week of November 21, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Very volatile action in the crude oil markets last week as oil surged past $100 to $103.30 before coming back off on renewed fears of an economic meltdown amid the crisis going on in Europe. If you were able to purchase a put above $100 last week, I'd say now is the time to exit with WTI trading at $95.50. I believe the market will see some stabilization at $94.50-$95.00. Heating oil has finally started to come down a bit as this market still trades above $3.00 while the gasoline is at a paltry $2.50. Look for the RB to HO spread to tighten a bit this week. I think gasoline is just way too oversold.

The Metals Review
For the week of November 21, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Precious metals are once again under fire as the gold market comes off to $1,730 as the USD strengthens a bit against other major currencies. I will look for gold to test $1,700 this week and if the bears are still in a feeding frenzy they can pull it towards $1,650. Anything lower than that and I think it would be a great buying opportunity.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of November 28, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of November 28, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

During the holiday shortened week soft commodity prices continued to drop. And as prices drop, so has open interest, which signals that it is covering of positions fueling the drop. Cannot see any reason to expect prices to go up with economies slowing down and interest in ownership lacking. For now, besides occasional bouts of trade buying, it is doubtful that unless funds receive motivation to own long positions prices will continue to trend lower.

That being said, as you can see, the dollar is down big as traders begin the new week and all soft prices are higher. Several markets had been oversold so the possibility that prices could rebound somewhat, but only from a technical perspective was available. Any rally of that sort provides a selling opportunity as these markets are trending lower. Therefore, my read is to sell into this rally. Those who are short could cover on extreme weakness, and look to re-enter from the short side on any bounce.

Currently the long put spread in sugar is working and those premium subscribers with that recommended position should look to take any unrealized profits as was suggested on Friday, although the 120 level was not reached, and it's doubtful it'll see it today given the strength. As a whole the Soft complex looks to be trending lower. I don't adhere to the belief that the Euro is saved and we've seen the end to dollar strength. Europe's recovery move is only a part, Black Friday sales is another. Doubt that either will be sufficient to last.

The precipitous drop in cocoa prices had been screaming for a technical bounce. Had been tempted to seek a long term position, and waited till after the holiday. The drop in the British Pound helped things along. Coffee has grown so thin that it makes traders nervous and a head fake move can be violent. I remain bearish on Sugar, same with cotton.

And this quote served up from one of my readers, "“Witnessing the Republicans and the Democrats bicker over the U.S. debt is like watching two drunks argue over a bar bill on the Titanic.”

***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of November 28, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Coming back from the holiday week it’s all good again. There is no real change on the fundamental front with demand quietly there for both corn and beans domestically and internationally. Something to watch today is how many million bushels of corn China takes after taking 17 million in their last two weeks. Outside of this factor, corn demand is coming from Ethanol on the domestic side with margins exceeding 80-cents on average. Bean demand remains from China with the rest of the world eerily quiet. On the wheat front it's Japan surprising many with their demand. This is attributed to switches from corn into feed wheat. On the supply side traders will see the final USDA progress report today offering corn harvest progress and winter wheat conditions. After today look to private forecasters for updates on both SRW and HRW. Looking at weather they have a small issue in Argentina with the central region drying out over the next 11-15 days with no real break seen. This will stress the wheat and corn more than beans which are more in the northern regions of the country. The bean plantings north of BA are moving along following recent rains with 46% estimated in the ground. In Ukraine the old crop harvest is all but complete with the government raising their total production number to 55MMT which is about 1-2 MMT above their previous estimate. This does not count the winter crop which is still experiencing problems due to drought and high winds. These are the only real fundamental impacts with the overnight rally and expected day session rally more heavily influenced by crude, the Euro and equities following black Friday. The Euro situation is improved today with no implosion over the weekend but reports of a mild recession will limit any upside interest. Add to this more bond sales coming from Portugal, Spain and Ireland and the gains will likely be limited. Crude is higher on oversold sentiment and growing tension between the world and Iran. Iran threatened to “hit” Turkey if the US or Israel attack. An interesting ploy but it did make the world step back just a bit. Crude oil is trading right back at $100.00 (basis FEB) offering a reason for all commodities to rally today following the recent beat down. On the technical side markets have dramatically oversold conditions across the board which is one reason for the recent rash of selling in corn and bean oil. This is wrong. I will stand up and say it loudly. The conditions right now for a rally in corn are almost perfect in my eyes. The growing conditions in the southern hemisphere support beans more than corn right now and with the continual acreage shifts I have heard about in Brazil and Argentina there is little reason in my mind to pressure corn any more. I am not a fan of CHI wheat, meal or beans as much as I am a bull in bean oil and corn. With volatility where it is, I think there is a reason to look at calls in BOH and CH this week looking for a move by year’s end.

The Energies Review
For the week of November 28, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

With all of the negative news and conditions around the globe, I think it would be odd to see a rally in the equity market after it has fallen for seven straight days, right? Well, that's exactly what is happening here with the rally of more than 30 points in the S&P and crude trying to touch $100 on the Sunday night session. $95 held for great support in the markets and right now the test of the highs is on its way. Look for crude to trade up to $102 this week.

***chart courtesy Gecko Software’s Track n’ Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of Dec 5, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of December 5, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

While outside markets had a big up week last week, the soft complex continues to experience price declines. The prospect of any sustained rally among members of the soft markets looks to be short lived and likely a selling opportunity. Open interest levels for the most part indicate long liquidation in the group. Technical bias is for lower prices. Fundamentally, I can see no solid reason to approach any of these markets from the buy side with any conviction. I lean bearish towards the entire complex.

Already hearing rumors of Fed today cutting by 0.25 additionally interest on swaplines. This will certainly chase nervous shorts, but will it be sufficient to attract meaningful buyers? I remain a skeptic and as such will look for opportunities on the short side.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Grains Review
For the week of December 5, 2011​

By Matthew Pierce

Coming back from the weekend I see a trade still paralyzed by the continued debt issues in Europe with PMI data suggesting a continued and serious contraction. The US debt situation is little better with the Democrats getting the Republicans to bend on the payroll tax deduction through 2012. This is a good sign if someone told me where they are going to cover the budget gap this will cost. I love tax cuts and all but they have to justify the books so where is the money coming from? Sadly, the fundamental situation remains very quiet with demand all but nonexistent.

On the supply side there are still weather problems in Ukraine and eastern Australia with more rains expected this week. The latter is a quality issue more than quantity issue with the crop in the final stages of development. The Ukraine situation is more of a long term scenario that needs to be watched due to their aggressive export pace early in the season. Internal forecasters are stating grain exports at only 6 MMT versus an early season estimate of 9-10 MMT. The week ahead for Ukraine is cold but major region have received some snow cover to mitigate the immediate impact. Another situation to be aware of is the growing political unrest in Russia following results of a weekend election. Putins ruling United Russia party received the barest majority versus 64% in the previous national election. This shows the iron fist of Putin heading into his election in March is rusting at the hinges. Good for Russia. These are the only impacts coming out of the European fundamental side heading into the first week in December with EU wheat starting on either side of 181.50 looking to US wheat for any momentum. The only momentum US wheat should have is short covering as positions are taken off the table into year end. There is no real threat to the HRW region following solid moisture in the eastern reaches of the HRW and most of the SRW region. There is still a serious problem in Western KS, OK and TX so focus on that come spring with the changing weather pattern looking to stay around for awhile.

Looking at S. America, Brazil is looking at rains in central growing areas with about 20-30 MM expected this week. There are still dry patches to watch with RGDS an issue worth watching as they progress through December. Argentina remains in better shape overall than Brazil but neither are a real concern. The biggest concern is Mexico. Corn production is a serious problem with drought like conditions dominating the current situation and forecast. This could increase Mexican imports by another 2 MMT with this coming from nowhere else but the US.

Looking at Asian markets I see Palm oil on the offensive again. Palm closed up 60 Ringgits due to short covering and lower production estimates due to weather problems. This is sparking talk of a test of record highs in 2012 which is not a far flung idea as long as crude maintains a positive stance. Shifting to crude, the market is modestly higher but world tensions again rising due to Iran. Their assertions that they shot down a US spy drone are not agreed upon by US officials. Our officials state the drone crashed due to computer malfunctions. We will never know the truth but this will only add another log to the smoldering fire which looks to expand into 2012. Equities are helping the macro side with all Asian markets offering a modest reason to consider a higher move sustainable today. US retail sales are considered robust so far with cyber shopping blowing away expectations. This has the whole US economy on the offensive today but as traders have so recently witnessed this can change day to day. I feel the worst is still ahead of us until the EU debt situation resolves itself in some manner.

Looking at agriculture this week, there is little excitement nor expectation for any real excitement heading into the December WASDE report due out on Friday morning. Informa will offer their crop expectations today at 10:30 which will basically be ignored by the trade. There are no more crop progress numbers so traders have to depend on private estimates heading into the WASDE concerning any losses in corn from IN, MI, OH and PA. Until Thursdays Export sales the trade has nothing else expected outside a few random tenders. Do not expect anything from China as their harvest is done amidst supposed record production numbers. Overall it is a lackluster week for agriculture with budding momentum from technically oversold conditions stunted due to world economic woes. Wheat could have a good week extending gains over corn (I eat crow here) as shorts are covered. Beans could rally a bit on technicals and weather woes in Brazil but this is a modest rally at best. Corn could and should rally modestly as well but likely lose to both wheat and beans if current trends continue.

The Energies Review
For the week of December 5, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Another week, another new recent high in the WTI space as crude rallied to $101.50 to close out the week on increased concern over Iran's crude supplies. The market has really been on a huge wave to the upside. This looks likely to continue as the equity markets have once again found their footing following the downturn ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. WTI spreads in the back of the curve remain strong in backwardation and the Jan arb has recently moved up again into the -8 dollar range. All signs point to a higher week and the next target will be $103.50.

The Metals Review
For the week of December 5, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Gold and silver both had great moves last week but look as though they might be in for a downturn this week. The gold market just can't seem to get past $1,765 in Feb. With the recent rise in the equity market the precious metals sector has found it harder and harder to rally and I believe gold is due for a correction back to $1,700.

Copper remains a buy on any pullback as this market has gone straight up the last week. There is huge resistance at $3.63 so watch out for this level when trading this week.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.​

Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.

 

[pitgurufk]

The Commodities Review For the Week of December 12, 2011

The Softs Review
For the week of December 12, 2011​

By Jurgens H. Bauer

Things look ugly and can get uglier. Dollar strength will press prices of softs down. Until Europe gets its act together it looks like could be a dark week ahead. Coffee making new lows, sugar rallies should be selling opportunities. There is little reason I see to look to play these markets from the long side.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Energies Review
For the week of December 12, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

The energy markets took a big dive at the end of last week with fears of the European debt crisis still in full effect. WTI traded from $102.30 down to $97.75 as it closed out the week on a sour note. I do like WTI from $97.50 to $95.00 and would be a buyer around those levels as the market will likely see a bounce during the trading week back over $100.00. Natural gas is still a dog in my eyes and I don't like it one bit down here. Would like to see this market press below 3.00.

***chart courtesy Gecko Softwares Track n Trade Pro
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.


The Metals Review
For the week of December 12, 2011​

By Daniel Cronin

Precious metals had a sour week as the dollar gained against the euro and both gold and silver fell as the bears were in full force. Gold looks to drop below $1,700 this week as this market gets flushed out. I like the yellow metal at $1,650 and I believe this is where it is headed next.

I think Copper remains a buy on pullbacks as huge potential support is at 3.47 short term with 3.25 still another huge support beam there. Copper will likely look to trade between 3.45 and 3.58 this week.


Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading futures and options involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Fundamental factors, seasonal and weather trends, daily news, and other current events may have already been factored into the markets. The use of stop loss or contingent orders may not protect profits and may not limit losses to the amount intended. Certain market conditions make it difficult or impossible to execute such orders.