Sridhar's Trading Dairy

[sridhga]

Arun, If BEL settles down below 100, then traders may lose interest and it clould lose its liquidity. It could become like some of those PSBs. In that scenario, it would become difficult to trade. Is it not?

 

[sridhga]

I am just wondering if I should drop BEL from my list and just play Elxsi for 10 rupees targets.
Maybe that way I can be more focused and rebuild the account.

 

[sridhga]

Ministry of defence order states reducing margins at PBT levels from 12.5% to 7.5%

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Is there any news on this?

 

[arunkarthik]

Ministry of defence order states reducing margins at PBT levels from 12.5% to 7.5%

Sent from my ONEPLUS A6000 using Tapatalk

Is there any news on this?

Yes, atleast that what was been quoted on MC forums. But coincidentally it has received an order worth 9200cr today.

With both positive and negative news in place, markets always overreact to the negative ones first and then slowly wake up to the positive ones.


Cheers
AK

 

[arunkarthik]

Arun, If BEL settles down below 100, then traders may lose interest and it clould lose its liquidity. It could become like some of those PSBs. In that scenario, it would become difficult to trade. Is it not?

I hope it wouldn’t be the case. Now that my portfolio has taken a severe hit, its only with options I could keep the show running. Let’s see what’s in store down the line.


Cheers
AK

 

[timepass]

Maybe it will re-cross 100 once, just the option players pulling it up to 105 or so, sometime later in the series.

 

[sridhga]

Yes, atleast that what was been quoted on MC forums. But coincidentally it has received an order worth 9200cr today.

With both positive and negative news in place, markets always overreact to the negative ones first and then slowly wake up to the positive ones.


Cheers
AK

The order for 9200 Crores is an old one. It was reported last month as the biggest order in BEL's history. They just added that thing to the news presentation. The real news is that the order book crossed 50K Crores. But earlier, I did see a news item where defence minister remarked that cost of procurement is high with Indian defence contractors as compared to the foreign ones. So they must have capped gross margins.

 

[sridhga]

I hope it wouldn’t be the case. Now that my portfolio has taken a severe hit, its only with options I could keep the show running. Let’s see what’s in store down the line.


Cheers
AK

Trading volumes were 14.52 crores. Of which about 5 crores were delivered. OI increased by 52%. That is a big issue here.

This share did give me profits. There is no doubt about it. Further, I observed this share on minutes charts endlessly for days together for a very long time, which I have not done with any other share. I learnt a lot on the minutes candles by observing movement in this share. I have documented many of my observations here.

Do you remember what happened to Infy when Vishal Sikka resigned? Do you remember what happened to Axis Bank when RBI forced them to disclose bad debts on their quarterly accounts? Those shares lost investor confidence and languished. Such shares do not move, get stuck in a range, and then, make sudden erratic moves. I am afraid, BEL is getting into that phase. On its result day it increased by Rs.10 in just 1 minute and then came off the very next day. Further, during last month it did slide from 120 to 115 over three days and recovered to 120 in just a couple of minutes. This 120~115 thing happened twice during last month. Big operators are in play. If this phenomenon shows up often, I cannot trade. I am a discretionary trader, and, if I fail in getting the pulse of the share, then I need to review and take a re-look.

Though, I spent lot of time studying this stock, I somehow believe that this may soon go off my list.

 

[sridhga]

Today's failure was entirely mine. I own it. I could have traded in the opposite direction and could have profited. But on an erratic, hapazard day even that does not work. But yesterday's movement in BEL suggests some insider information worked in the market. I seem to be losing the pulse of this stock's movement.

I think I should focus on just one stock so that my reversal of positions are quick and timely. Two stocks falling steeply and taking turns to fight me did not leave me much time to breathe. I also lost money on shorting, today.

 

[arunkarthik]

I hope it wouldn’t be the case. Now that my portfolio has taken a severe hit, its only with options I could keep the show running. Let’s see what’s in store down the line.


Cheers
AK

Trading volumes were 14.52 crores. Of which about 5 crores were delivered. OI increased by 52%. That is a big issue here.

This share did give me profits. There is no doubt about it. Further, I observed this share on minutes charts endlessly for days together for a very long time, which I have not done with any other share. I learnt a lot on the minutes candles by observing movement in this share. I have documented many of my observations here.

Do you remember what happened to Infy when Vishal Sikka resigned? Do you remember what happened to Axis Bank when RBI forced them to disclose bad debts on their quarterly accounts? Those shares lost investor confidence and languished. Such shares do not move, get stuck in a range, and then, make sudden erratic moves. I am afraid, BEL is getting into that phase. On its result day it increased by Rs.10 in just 1 minute and then came off the very next day. Further, during last month it did slide from 120 to 115 over three days and recovered to 120 in just a couple of minutes. This 120~115 thing happened twice during last month. Big operators are in play. If this phenomenon shows up often, I cannot trade. I am a discretionary trader, and, if I fail in getting the pulse of the share, then I need to review and take a re-look.

Though, I spent lot of time studying this stock, I somehow believe that this may soon go off my list.

The paramount increase in OI (65+) is something which I’ve never seen in BEL counter.

In case of the news, whatsoever, being already factored in at this price, the short covering on this massive front should easily take the stock back to 105 levels atleast.

I took almost the same hit like this in IFCI when the banking license didn’t go through for it. But I wasn’t aware of options by then.

As I have told multiple times, naked long/short overnight positions without hedging is always a risky business.


Alright, things do happen. Take a break for a couple of days, come back and win it again.



Cheers
AK