Prediction Techniques

akgandhi

Active Member
#1
Need some help from experienced people here on Traderji.

What are the best methods or techniques of projecting a statistical data into the future.Lets say we want to project Stoch Oscillator or for that matter price actions or Moving averages into the future.

Is there any fixed / defined rules or methods ? Which one is the best option to use in such a case.
 

ryan4ucar

Well-Known Member
#2
Need some help from experienced people here on Traderji.

What are the best methods or techniques of projecting a statistical data into the future.Lets say we want to project Stoch Oscillator or for that matter price actions or Moving averages into the future.

Is there any fixed / defined rules or methods ? Which one is the best option to use in such a case.
This mechanical things dont work in the market. Markets are not traded by robots but by human beings with emotions.
 

akgandhi

Active Member
#3
Are those emotions quantifiable ? Based on past behaviors we can certainly guess the direction some what and thats wat my question is , even a small guidance into peeking the future would be of immense help
 

jahan

Well-Known Member
#4
Need some help from experienced people here on Traderji.

What are the best methods or techniques of projecting a statistical data into the future.Lets say we want to project Stoch Oscillator or for that matter price actions or Moving averages into the future.

Is there any fixed / defined rules or methods ? Which one is the best option to use in such a case.

HELLO,

As far my experience is concerned, it is better to anticipate rather than prediction.

yes to be profitable in this business there are millions ways,but trader need to find the method which suits his/her personality and finding the right method is very very difficult thing.(these words are Bookish but true)

see ....in these years i found that applying Bands(any type of bands) techniques to the markets works very well, and my belief is that its gonna work in the future also.

find that edge in ur trading method and apply simple money management rule to that. if u want 100% objective rules to trading(which i also like and implementing successfully).have a look at jake Bernstein videos/books.(google it)

if u can't able to find his videos just let me know.

Regards,
 

hmp

Well-Known Member
#5
HELLO,

As far my experience is concerned, it is better to anticipate rather than prediction.

yes to be profitable in this business there are millions ways,but trader need to find the method which suits his/her personality and finding the right method is very very difficult thing.(these words are Bookish but true)

see ....in these years i found that applying Bands(any type of bands) techniques to the markets works very well, and my belief is that its gonna work in the future also.

find that edge in ur trading method and apply simple money management rule to that. if u want 100% objective rules to trading(which i also like and implementing successfully).have a look at jake Bernstein videos/books.(google it)

if u can't able to find his videos just let me know.

Regards,
Dear Sir
What are the bands ?Pl. ellaborate. Also about your method of money management.I m rather confused how to follow it to have consistent profit from market.
Regards
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#6
Ryan,

Know you are a knowledgeable trader going thru your many post, however respectfully disagree on this post since I personally know people who trade mechanically and profitably. I was of the same opinion as you earlier, however, seeing trading results, changed my opinion.

Secondly, are not most of the trades - in fact in billions of dollars run by algos?

This mechanical things dont work in the market. Markets are not traded by robots but by human beings with emotions.
 
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DSM

Well-Known Member
#7
Ryan,

Know you are a knowledgeable trader going thru your many post, however respectfully disagree on this post since I personally know people who trade mechanically and profitably. I was of the same opinion as you earlier, however, seeing trading results, changed my opinion.

Secondly, are not most of the trades - in fact in billions of dollars run by algos?[/QUOTE]
 

colion

Active Member
#8
Need some help from experienced people here on Traderji.

What are the best methods or techniques of projecting a statistical data into the future.Lets say we want to project Stoch Oscillator or for that matter price actions or Moving averages into the future.

Is there any fixed / defined rules or methods ? Which one is the best option to use in such a case.
You might be interested in looking at Hurst channels and cycles. Hurst wrote a classic book about this titled "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing".
 

akgandhi

Active Member
#9
You might be interested in looking at Hurst channels and cycles. Hurst wrote a classic book about this titled "The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing".
any training materials on this ? that book is too vast and i dont know how to practically implement it .... can u guide me thru ?
 

jagankris

Well-Known Member
#10
Need some help from experienced people here on Traderji.

What are the best methods or techniques of projecting a statistical data into the future.Lets say we want to project Stoch Oscillator or for that matter price actions or Moving averages into the future.

Is there any fixed / defined rules or methods ? Which one is the best option to use in such a case.
Dear AkGandhi,

What kind of trader are you ?

Day Trader or Swing Trader or a speculator.
If Day Trader - Some thing like OI - FII data - Asian Markets,Trend,,Candle stick pattern, News could be helpful on few days.Higher time frame support/resistance levels.
But at the same time - the bias could affect the day trading.
Some days - it is sell on news and some days it is buy on news.

Swing Trader
Trend,VIX,PE ratio,OI,Delivery Volume,Roll over analysis,Options pricing,Cost of carry,Higher time frame support/resistance levels,Candle stick pattern.

But again none of these are fool proof and there is no holy grail.
If at all there is one markets will fill those gaps as it develops.

A 100 + points on the opposite side and again markets moving as predicted could be costly financially and psychologically.

Instead of learning every thing and finally negating every thing and coming to a conclusion - keep it simple and that price is the king and following the price after wiping the account couple of times it is

Both Jagan and Jahan are telling better to anticipate and trade what we see than what we think.
 

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