PAISAEQ - Nifty Analysis

[paisaeq]

Dear Friends,

My name is Sandy, my analysis usually is biased towards technical analysis. I believe it works the best for me. In this thread I will utilize few technical tools in my arsenal to see its effectiveness in analyzing the Indian stock market. My primary focus will be NIFTY.

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January 20th 2011 (5:13 PM)

This is Nifty's yesterday (daily) chart, which shows a divergence in price and RSI (see attached chart, shaded area). The price made a new low, whereas the RSI failed to move lower. This gives us an indication that prices have lost their strength in moving down.

Also prices are resting on the trend channel drawn since july of 2009. Prices should push off and NIFTY (Indian Markets) should see some strength for a few days.

EXPECTATIONS

Target Range: 5800 to 5900

One could define risk, if prices break and close below 5600.

 

[paisaeq]

January 27th 2011 (12:10 AM)

NIFTY on the 25th tested lower end of the range 5800 to 5900 as posted on the 20th. Nifty high for the day was 5801.55. Nifty sharply reversed mid-afternoon and closed almost 1% lower for the day.

The trend-line (see post #1) still stands un-broken. My bias is neutral until we either see push off from the trend-line or sustained penetration of the trend-line. Although i feel the later will be a more appropriate outcome. Esp. after 25th's reversal. If the trend-line is broken, NIFTY could find it self at the levels of June 2010 (5300 to 5200).

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Thanks anupam0815 and k.raaja

 

[paisaeq]

See Prev. Post

 

[paisaeq]

January 28th 2011 6:55 PM

The prices broke trough the trend-line yesterday. Prices closed well below the trendline and also near the lows. I stated in my previous post (#2)

If the trend-line is broken, NIFTY could find it self at the levels of June 2010 (5300 to 5200).

Prices zoomed lower today as well with nifty at one point down 150 points.

Our biased turned negative at yesterdays close (sorry coudn't post about it), however my earlier post should have been suffice where I mentioned the bearish view if the trend line was broken and prices closed below.

My Expectations:
Initial Target: 5400 (+/- 20 points)
Secondary Target: 5100 (+/- 50 points)

Define risk around 6125 (+/- 8 points)
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[paisaeq]

I mentioned in my previous post define risk around 6125 (+/- 8 points), I am sorry that was a typo. If that was the actual risk, my Risk to Reward would be outstandingly stupid and low to say the least.

DEFINE RISK AROUND 5625 (+/- 8 points)

Sandy

 

[paisaeq]

January 31st 2011, Monday 2:55 PM

Nifty opened low, with days low at 5416.65, within the Initial target range of 5400 (+/- 20 points).

Some-one who followed my post #2 and waited for the NIFTY to close below the trend-line and open position on the following day (28/01/2011), one could have shorted the NIFTY around 5600.

Achieved Initial Target Range (Profit +150 points).

Chart to follow in the evening with new entry points for another short position to reach our secondary target range of 5100 (+/- 50 points) (as mentioned in post #4).

Regards,
Sandy