Nifty Intraday Pivot Points

[ashwani chadha]

i agree. My perspective below.
While trading, we are trying to balance 2 objectives.

#1. Accuracy
#2. Volumes

if i make only 1 trade in a year, or once in a lifetime, unless i make a bad call like investing in nasdaq-2001 or unitech-2010, i will most likely (99.9%) be right. I can pick an index to be safe rather than a company. However, we are not talking about doing one trade, there are people who earn living just by trading, and i bet one trade can not sustain them. So some sort of volume is imperative.

On the other hand, if i make million trades a year (going to the other extreme), being right matters, but not to the extent that i have to be right 100%. As mr pips says, he is accurate 85% of the time. Subtract the 15% times he is wrong, and you get a net gain 70% time. With good stop loss management, or assuming that gains and losses are of equal size, that is something to be proud of. So i could be wrong 150k times in a year and still come out way ahead !!!

In my opinion, i do not think you can find any person who can do 1000 trades in a row without missing one (except maybe some market movers colluding with each other ... But lot of people do not share my fear of them). Why 1000, let's make it 100 in a row ... You might find some people who got lucky, but not more than that.

Also, in my opinion, the same chart and the same data tables give different signals to different people, that's just the way we are built. If i see lines and patterns better, others read numbers and ratios better. If i remember this event happened in 1978 and then this was the next step, someone else might be able to correlate a bloomberg newsfeed better with what's going to happen. Someone can use bollinger bands for profit, someone uses ichimoku. Because that's what works for them.

To repeat ... The trick is to find a balance between your reading skills (tech, fundamentals or otherwise) and your urge to do volumes (so that you know which trades to skip) ... And the balance is something very specific to you.

Of course, given that we are not 100%, there will be hindsight. Some situations will give us more ideas (checks and controls for future, or positive affirmation of what you did), whereas some will peter out as voodoo. But taking a moment to analyze it will hopefully improve the ratios.

** no reason to ramble ... Just the discussion of hindsight triggered this in me ***

thanks for your usefull thought

 

[sanjosedesi]

Just FYI if you are looking at volatility based on # days market is open in a week, it is going to be another truncated week this week. April 22 (Friday) is a holiday on account of Good Friday.

 

[ashwani chadha]

No need to be confused. Regardless, of what happens the market will only go up or down. Just make sure you are going the right way, and you will make lots of money. If you go the wrong way, make sure the stop is in place and lose little money. The idea is just be right most of the time, and the money is there.

Too many theories and conjectures overcomplicate things. Just remember 2 keys words-- "up or down". Now, get on the right side. If you are not sure of your decision, then look at another market to trade.

thanks for your perfect view,if some one under stands this ,he can at once become successfull,basically if one is on the right side,what ever mts he follow, no body can defeat him !!!

 

[sanjosedesi]

thanks for your perfect view,if some one under stands this ,he can at once become successfull,basically if one is on the right side,what ever mts he follow, no body can defeat him !!!

I am not sure if this is seriously supporting paul's comment, or is sarcastic.

Here's my take on this. Paul trades in 28 currencies or currency markets. There will be conflicting signals in many, but clear cut in some. The idea is to get into trades where you are really sure.

Well, we do not trade in currency (hypothetical)!! Then find your 28 scrips, and on a daily basis you will see technicals telling you some sure trades and some iffy trades. You pick the ones where ... you are most sure, or where all stars align.

 

[sramu1]

Sramu, I'm going to say this from personal experience. I have a blog that gets lots of hits on a regular basis. Through my blog, I have developed a lot of friendships, and professional relationships. People also come to my blog for help and guidance, because of my track record and all the services are rendered free, as thee is also no paid advertising on my blog. I said that not too sound like I'm blowing my horn, but to make a point. I have heard many times people use similar comments as this one, but it is an excuse to fail.

First of all, the comment is obvious. There are no foolproof systems. All systems, when followed faithfully, are going to yield some losing trades, every once in awhile. Most people I have talked to that have used any kind of a derivation of that comment has used it as an excuse to fail.It is almost something like, "No system is guaranteed to win all the time, so this is why I lost and am continuing to lose." In other words, that is a comment reserved only for losers. The object to being a successful trader, and SJD alluded to it, is knowing how to manage the losers with the winners. Losing is just part of the job (Notice I said the key word, "part".). The totality of your job is to derive a system (It does not matter how it is contrived.) that yields winning trades most of the time, use could margin management, and have strong mental discipline the entire journey.

I'll break that down to my favorite lowest common denominator for you. The markets can only go up or down. You toss a coin and you are going to be right 50% of the time. Add a methodology that can discern in advance which way the market will go, and then what you have is a system that is not foolproof, but will make you lots of money.

"As long as the error or delayed trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) is recognized early the damage can be reduced." That is your quote. If the errors are the rule, then there is something wrong with you and your methodology, not the TA's. Let me reword that a little, because this is what we are here for:
As long as the right trends in TA (In this case from bearish to Bullish) are recognized early the rewards can be increased.

"Unfortunately there is no silver bullet in predicting the market. This is the nature of the beast."
Wrong! There is nothing unfortunate about it. That is just the nature of trading, not the beast. The beast has nothing to do with it, but that is a subject for another thread.

My 5 dollars worth. I just raised your 2 cents worth--lol. That was only a joke, Sramu.

Thanks for your long and verbose explanation. You have re-packaged what I said succinctly . And the explanation you have given is no rocket science. Every trader /analyst is aware of the limitations in each method. I partially agree with your statement that TA's are right and the error is due to methodology.

This is my 100 dollars --- I just raised from your 5 dollars ... LOL ( I am sure you will raise it more judging from your response to others and your monopoly in this thread !!! ).. Joke from my side Mr Pips

I know you would like to have the last word and that's fine by me.

From my side this issue is closed and will have no more explanations from me !!!

 

[SavantGarde]

Hi Paul,

Have read a few posts in this thread and elsewhere, What come across very clearly is the following:

"My Proprietary S&R"

This thread is not about 'ifs' 'Buts' 'Can' 'Maybe' & Obscured Fluffy Clouds

Would request you to start another thread where I shall move all your posts from here and the relevant replies to your posts by various members.

Looking at starting updates again...soon.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[sanjosedesi]

Alright, how do I unsubscribe this thread?
The point is that in the absence of any other discussion, whatever was being discussed was
a) NIFTY only
b) movements of NIFTY with S&R which may not be same as pivots but is pretty similar, and
c) very useful
Add:Anyway looks like Paul is gone for now, so this discussion is moot!!

 

[MurAtt]

Bull stirring from slumber

Looking at starting updates again...soon.

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde

 

[assimilator]

Looking at starting updates again...soon.

SavantGarde

Seems market is ready for the run.... we all should be on our toes to catch the trumpets and the horns blown by the big bull, SIR G.

Looking forward to updates :clap::clapping::thumb:

 

[SavantGarde]

For those regular & occasional visitors of this thread... I owe you all an explanation before any debate about my post addressed to Paul gets blown into something that wasn't intended.

At first, I was under the impression it was just one off post by Paul & several times I did update template for posting... but had to go back almost 20 pages for reference...and changed my mind about updating.

Moreover, this thread is not about Ichimoku and it's various avatar's of the cloud & etc.

Although, the thread happens to be in public domain there are still some ethics & courtesy that needs to be exhibited

Happy & Safer Trading

SavantGarde