Need your Kind Help to Check performance of my Strategy

Discussion in 'Futures' started by vinayhegde, Dec 29, 2015.

  1. vinayhegde

    vinayhegde New Member

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    Hi Guys,

    i am new to nifty trading , and was back testing my strategy for the year 2015 and i can make around 800 points in Nifty.
    so can anybody please tell me is this strategy worth to follow.. :)
     
  2. tradingstudent

    tradingstudent Well-Known Member

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    You haven't given much information to go with and there are many variables, but the short answer is : It's not bad at all.

    From what i read on this forum, the ball park figure, starting range from 100-200 points per month i.e. the minimum points.

    I am assuming it is 800 points net the total profit, i am not taking into the brokerage charges and order filling slippages etc..

    Potential Drawbacks to your strategy: Keep in mind these are the general views: People say that a strategy must be tested in all market conditions bear, bull, range bound..and one year is too less of a time is what people feel.

    [[In my opinion, backward testing of a strategy may be distorted, there are so many events that happened. In the back test, you might have had a trade that gave you 200 in the market opening itself, because you had long positions at yesterday's closing... Here is the catch, that day there was an event like RBI announcing rate cuts or whatever.. So similarly in the future if there is a similar event will you take overnight positions? Probably not, you will stay on the sidelines till the event is over]]..

    Reason for increasing the time range of the testing period-->A dumb analogy would be: A proven strategy is like a wife, you know how it works, what are the quirks, you have seen the swings, you have seen the good and have seen at her worst. A new strategy would be like a girl friend, you haven't seen her with the wide spectrum. Just like the above, a strategy will have maximum draw down, ratio of winning trades vs losing trades, the market conditions where you need to modify etc...

    Again, not sure if your strategy is totally mechanical or discretion, depending on the type emotions will come into picture...


    One thing i would like to tell you is, are you comfortable trading your system? In the end, that's the key question.. Every strategy needs to fit the temperament of the trader...

    Example: One of the revered members on this forum is Mr.Smart Trade. Sometimes he plays swing and some time scalping like in 3 minute time frame.

    Even if he were to teach me his strategy and beat me everyday :gun2: till i picked it up :!..it would be tough work as i am uncomfortable :fatigue:trading in naked futures and road racing time frames like 3 minutes. I have seen the bank nifty fall like 200-300 points in couple of seconds boom and hence the jittery..

    My point being, each one has his own temperament, the ideal scenario is finding a strategy that fits his personality..As long as this objective is met, do not worry too much about other's opinion as it will come from their individual bias..
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2015
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  3. vinayhegde

    vinayhegde New Member

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    Hi TS

    Really thank you very much for your detailed answer.. :)
    i am a day trader. i don't keep the positions overnight,i just close it by EOD.
    and in my strategy i just included brokerages but not slippages.
    i use fixed point Entry as well as SL . so i think i need to change here, because it is not up to the mark in 2014 some rangebound months.
     
  4. vijkris

    vijkris Well-Known Member

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    how is your strategy performing. are u stil trading that method or found a better method?
    pls update.
     
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