My Trading Diary

#1
Hi,

I would like to record my trading activities here in this forum. Hopefully i will earn some profit in this crazy market. This post just to evaluate myself and not recomended for trade.

I hae Nifty DEC 4900 PUT 3 lot average price @ 48

I am expecting nifty will expire below 4900 this month since Doller Index Turning positive.

Thanks
Udhay
 
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#2
In order to confirm bear market, Sensex needs to drop below 16210, which is the beginning point of bear market within the next week.

Liquidity from FII flows has been clearly positive for the market, marginal returns form
such inflows now appear reducing now.

For example, the 86% up-move from 8047 (6th March’09) to 14931 (19th May’09) saw FII
inflows of only Rs.25000 crs. Since 19th May, the FII inflows have shot up by further
Rs.62000 crs, in response to which, market moved only 16%. Further FII inflows will risk
reducing marginal returns, and can come in only for safety, and not for returns.

The average Sensex level for the FII inflows since 19th May calculates to 15800. In other
words, a fall below 15800 would result in a loss on the Rs.62000 cr. inflows.
While one cannot argue with the liquidity in the short term, we cannot ignore the risks if
it chickens out. This risk factor will get highlighted next week, if the Dollar continues to
move higher.

Dollar Index has seen a long bear phase, its short term bounce has been indicated
Doller Index turning positive. A further strong move will pose a threat to
the Sensex sustaining from here. strength in Dollar Index can result in FII
withdrawing from our market, especially flows which came in as Dollar carry trade.
While we consider this as a risk factor, for any technically positive scenario, one would
wait for Friday’s high of 17352 to be taken out, with a follow-up up-move that can
sustain above the dreaded resistance.
 
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