My Journey In Technical Analysis

[XRAY27]

Now XRayji should head another thread on mean reversion

All of us trend traders seem to have had a tough month. In fact May was also very volatile but the bottom-line was saved due to a few directional large moves.

From Tapatalk

May month was saved with last days trending moves, trend trading is about catching large moves and facing lots of losses , my brain was tuned into this type ,so shifting to mean reversion trading may not be possible for me ,will stick to the system which i'm trading...great traders may have the ability to notice this (turns and twists ),but i don't have that capacity,my strength is to catch a trend up to 80 % and have to play with that !!!

 

[XRAY27]

Justing checking all trades in Intra/swing/Positional,there is no execution issues and trades are clinical, but..end result is loss..added all ingredients to skip range market,but market thought me "you cannot escape every thing " !!!
,
Trend-following and counter trend strategies or mean reversion can both be profitable. That being said, calling market tops and bottoms is a lot harder than catching a piece of an established trend. Contrarian strategies can get traders in trouble quickly. On the other hands experienced traders have good precision Strike,love them due to the high risk to reward ratios which they provide. This is yet another trading dilemma which doesn’t have a clear answer

 

[VJAY]

Rightly said xray brother...."you can't escape from everything"...which ever method one trades he never escape from everything...he caught up with some....beuty of trend method is when trending profit is big...when not many small whips....also wintrdes always few against loss trades.IMO no one able to trade in all times....

 

[TracerBullet]

Justing checking all trades in Intra/swing/Positional,there is no execution issues and trades are clinical, but..end result is loss..added all ingredients to skip range market,but market thought me "you cannot escape every thing " !!!
,
Trend-following and counter trend strategies or mean reversion can both be profitable. That being said, calling market tops and bottoms is a lot harder than catching a piece of an established trend. Contrarian strategies can get traders in trouble quickly. On the other hands experienced traders have good precision Strike,love them due to the high risk to reward ratios which they provide. This is yet another trading dilemma which doesn’t have a clear answer

May be useful - sharp swings in opposite direction often lead to some volatility compression

 

[XRAY27]

Days of Range expansion are less (VAH and VAL),along with reaction of HVN and LVN are super fast not much help from poor high and poor low,which is one of the rare case as far as intra is concerned ,quarterly performance so far ....

 

[XRAY27]

The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may provide proficiency, but not excellence.Virtually anyone can become a net profitable trader,but only a few have the inborn talent to become super traders ! For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only up to a point. Be realistic in your goals.

To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge Shortcuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple failures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals. Why should you be any better ? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.

 

[XRAY27]

Intra is at +192 and positional long @ 26385 ,swing long @26538 in bnf and 10724 in NF -- going with TSL in swing and positional ...

 

[XRAY27]

Backtesting for me means below table

But there are two more items which we should check, one is luck factor and another recovery factor

Luck factor: (% of highest winning trade / % of average winning trade). it should be very less, if it is 5 or 7 then system success depends of few extraordinary trades,which is not good !!!

Recovery factor : ( total net profit / absolute draw down) it should be more then 2

Luck factor is 2 and recovery factor is 4 for my system

 

[VJAY]

Backtesting for me means below table

View attachment 26527

But there are two more items which we should check, one is luck factor and another recovery factor

Luck factor: (% of highest winning trade / % of average winning trade). it should be very less, if it is 5 or 7 then system success depends of few extraordinary trades,which is not good !!!

Recovery factor : ( total net profit / absolute draw down) it should be more then 2

Luck factor is 2 and recovery factor is 4 for my system

Dear Xray bro,
Can you please explain it with some example?I want to check it with my data
whats % of highest winning trade / % of average winning trade means as how much you meant highest?
absolute DD means( total loss/total loss trades)*maximum continues loss trades ...right?

Or you use this fig and explain RF &LF..

 

[XRAY27]

Dear Xray bro,
Can you please explain it with some example?I want to check it with my data
whats % of highest winning trade / % of average winning trade means as how much you meant highest?
absolute DD means( total loss/total loss trades)*maximum continues loss trades ...right?

check the % of winning trade among your winners it should be less. ex 40 50 90 120 300 =600 highest one is 300 in % term it is 50 % and remaining all constitute 50 % so % of highest winning trade / % of average winning is 1 which is the Luck factor
absolute DD means in rupee terms your draw down amount ex:If net Profit=100000, maximum system draw down=50000, the Recovery Factor=100000/50000=2