Learning and Implementing Ichimoku in Forex

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#51


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Sanjoy, here is something to witness live. This is the CAD/CHF, and it's in for a reversal. The only thing I'm looking at here is the daily chart. This is another case that it is flying too high above the current cloud, and is high above the cloud in back, and in the future. So DOWN it will come. Just watch it over the next few days. MAF, I think I'll go short on this.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#52
I thought I'd post this chart just to show how I use an indicator other than the ichimoku cloud as a confluence to make a trading decision.
This is a chart of the Hang Seng (I don't trade it. I don't know what it is. Someone asked me to forecast it, so I did.). Notice how it is already starting to reverse. I forecasted this before the market opened. If the reversal is on, then it is premature, because I said it would reverse at 23753 at the top of the cloud. Tops and bottoms of clouds make excellent S&R's, Combine that with the stochastics which is OB and curling over. Ichimoku does not show OB/OS conditions. If you know the candle has hit a key S or R area, and then you know it is OB or OS, then that is all you need to know. Direction is going to reverse. Also, the tenken and kijun has flatten below the cloud which is showing equilibrium, and the fact they both have not caught up with price. Look into the future and notice the bearish condition of the cloud. All this adds up to the fact that price should hit the TK combo, at least, which is 23198. A check of the higher TF's also shows that, in part, they agree with this scenario, so the correction, at least should begin.

I also wanted to post this just to show that ichimoku works in any market in any condition.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#53


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I posted this 9 days ago. I stumbled across it, while actually looking for the other ichi thread. Considering I encouraged anyone to view it live, I wanted to post the result. The circled area on the new chart is the red part on the top chart. Since then it took off south.
Again, it is only so high a pair can fly above the cloud where it has to come down. That's why in my little world, I believe the ichimoku cloud comes equipped with an altimeter.




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Sanjoy, here is something to witness live. This is the CAD/CHF, and it's in for a reversal. The only thing I'm looking at here is the daily chart. This is another case that it is flying too high above the current cloud, and is high above the cloud in back, and in the future. So DOWN it will come. Just watch it over the next few days. MAF, I think I'll go short on this.
 

ag_fx

Well-Known Member
#54
The pair has been trapped in a sharp downside channel for 8 days. It is now due to recover most of some of those losses, as it head back to .9497, and probably much higher.


I got 7 trades up. All I got to say is I better be right, or Tucker ain't eatin' for a week--lol.
This is what you are talking about. But how do you initiate a Long trade on this? I mean to ask when and where? And where do you place your stops?

 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#55
Ankitgarg, I posted a reply eariler, and something happened, because it never got transmitted.
Oh well, the timing is even better. The reason I said that is this analysis does not have the pinpoint accuracy that I have been used to, so I can now address the issues with it.
First of all, I drew the TL lines off the 4-hour chart rather than the daily chart, and you will see it takes on a bit of a different look. All it did on the daily was hit the bottom of the lower level TL. It went sideways off the TL today, and then broke down right back to the lower level TL. This enabled it to not only hit the LL TL again, but clip the WS3 (Sorry for the diversion from the thread's main subject.) at .9329. The thing that gets me excited about this position is not all that evidence, but how low it is flying under the cloud. That tells me recovery is in store. This is a time when The Move has delayed, but it does not mean it is going to happen.
Stops are more of a personal thing, except there has to be a methodological approach in using them. You may be the conservative type and want to keep them close, so you might set in at the most recent low.OTOH, the latest dip on the weekly is .9287, so somewhere under that point could be good
The one thing you don't want to do with stops is to say, "I want my stop to be x amount of pips, and that is where I'm going to set it. Most likely, your stop will be hit, so it did you no good to place the trade. This is because unless it is placed behind a key support, it could spike you out.
This is why when someone asks about stops, you almost have to be vague in answering it. I'm not going to tell you to set your stops where mine are. I have an aggressive style, but high conservative in my margining. I don't think nothing of a 200-pip stop. Yet 99% of my trades (literally) I have to manually take my trade out or they hit my TP.
Many things have to be addressed with regards to stops.
I will say, "Be ready!" It is flying too low below the cloud. To add validity to that statement, take a ruler that measures cm's. Measure the current distance from the candle to the cloud. Look at any market, whether it be this or any other. Tell me what the odds are of a candle ranging this far from the cloud. Add to the OS condition of the stochastics, hit "Buy", be patient, and let the pips roll. I'm saying that in the middle of having 4 losing trades currently up, which is unusual for me.



This is what you are talking about. But how do you initiate a Long trade on this? I mean to ask when and where? And where do you place your stops?

 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#56


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The market is not through moving up yet, but this chart just shows the progress of the forecast.
After it hit the tenken, I closed my positions on it to make room for a short on cable, and a long on the loonie.


Ankitgarg, I posted a reply eariler, and something happened, because it never got transmitted.
Oh well, the timing is even better. The reason I said that is this analysis does not have the pinpoint accuracy that I have been used to, so I can now address the issues with it.
First of all, I drew the TL lines off the 4-hour chart rather than the daily chart, and you will see it takes on a bit of a different look. All it did on the daily was hit the bottom of the lower level TL. It went sideways off the TL today, and then broke down right back to the lower level TL. This enabled it to not only hit the LL TL again, but clip the WS3 (Sorry for the diversion from the thread's main subject.) at .9329. The thing that gets me excited about this position is not all that evidence, but how low it is flying under the cloud. That tells me recovery is in store. This is a time when The Move has delayed, but it does not mean it is going to happen.
Stops are more of a personal thing, except there has to be a methodological approach in using them. You may be the conservative type and want to keep them close, so you might set in at the most recent low.OTOH, the latest dip on the weekly is .9287, so somewhere under that point could be good
The one thing you don't want to do with stops is to say, "I want my stop to be x amount of pips, and that is where I'm going to set it. Most likely, your stop will be hit, so it did you no good to place the trade. This is because unless it is placed behind a key support, it could spike you out.
This is why when someone asks about stops, you almost have to be vague in answering it. I'm not going to tell you to set your stops where mine are. I have an aggressive style, but high conservative in my margining. I don't think nothing of a 200-pip stop. Yet 99% of my trades (literally) I have to manually take my trade out or they hit my TP.
Many things have to be addressed with regards to stops.
I will say, "Be ready!" It is flying too low below the cloud. To add validity to that statement, take a ruler that measures cm's. Measure the current distance from the candle to the cloud. Look at any market, whether it be this or any other. Tell me what the odds are of a candle ranging this far from the cloud. Add to the OS condition of the stochastics, hit "Buy", be patient, and let the pips roll. I'm saying that in the middle of having 4 losing trades currently up, which is unusual for me.
 
#57
Big fan of Japanese chart techniques; Candle patterns, HA, Ichi etc. BTW, has anybody tried to play with the input parameters? those parameter values are more geared towards daily charts in my opinion.
 

4xpipcounter

Well-Known Member
#58
Ichimoku is a cyclical based indicator, among other things. 26 is a generally accepted cycle count for trends. Even though there is a variable, 26 is the accepted mean. If you spot the cycle as being greater than that or less than that, then adjust your parameters accordingly.
One way you can get a quick cursory glance at the cycle's composition is by setting the Bollinger Bands to it, and start with 26,3. If the candles are bouncing off the extremes with a kind of predictability, then you got the setting right on the ichimoku. If there is not then adjust the BB's accordingly, then adjust the ichimoku, and then adjust the other parameters proportionately.

Personally, I've used the ichimoku for so long that the default setting has just been an accepted practice with me. I've found that personal experimentation is the best approach, as things become revealed through that process.



Big fan of Japanese chart techniques; Candle patterns, HA, Ichi etc. BTW, has anybody tried to play with the input parameters? those parameter values are more geared towards daily charts in my opinion.
 
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4xpipcounter

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#60


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Here is another one of those ichi setups that I love. It is getting ready for a strong reversal. It has dipped too far under the cloud, and it ready for a strong reversal. There will be lots of R along the way. We can see the tenken and kijun just on this TF. There is also the bottom of the cloud it will have a meeting with. Watch for this pair, CAD/CHF, though. It looks hot
 

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