Reliance Jio has given detailed statistics, claiming 10 Crore calls per day are failing when initiated from Jio to competing networks. Considering how public and how visible this dispute is, I think we can safely assume this figure is at least close to correct.
If this is the case, let's try to use this figure to extrapolate the number of subscribers that Jio has already got.
Lets assume that this is a serious problem, and about 1/3 of the calls made from Jio to the other networks fail. That means there are a total of 30 crore calls made from Jio to other networks, and 10 crore of these calls fail.
Lets assume that phones are used for about 16 hours actively. And on an average, let's assume 2 calls made by every customer every hour. That means each customer of Jio attempts to make 32 calls in a day. This is WAY over normal usage patterns, but because Jio is free, and many of the calls are failing, let's assume 32 calls per day is a reasonable figure.
That gives us a figure of almost 10 million subscribers in Jio already!! Which is quite stunning in some ways, but understandable too - because the company has seen significant demand - way more than it can handle!
For a company that is hoping to get 100 million to 125 million subscribers in 3 years, that's not bad at all!
And remember - many customers simply haven't had their SIM cards activated yet. Many customers have signed up for JioFi plans - which are data only plans, with no voice calls.
So the actual number of subscribers could be way more! In fact, I am beginning to think Jio could probably even be closer to 15M subscribers already!
This is beginning to sound ridiculous, and at some point, Jio will come out with official subscriber numbers. I think in another month or so, things will get stabilized - and the true picture will start to emerge.
Jio is currently valued at Rs 20 in the Reliance share price! If they have managed to get 15M subscribers already, then that figure seems abysmally low!