IS the MARKET turning point arrived ?

[brv127]

Dear Friends,

Does anybody feel that the downward trend of Indian Stocks is about to over now & would start responding positive henceforth from the current fall ?

Though seems unbelivable at present, but, well, I strongly feel positive now & looking forward for upward trend now....


- Bhavesh

 

[mayavi99]

In my opinion, we are no where near the bottom. Global indicators are still pointing to further down side. Every time the hon'ble FM comes on the TV and announces " all is well", the markets take further beating in the next few sessions.

 

[columbus]

In my opinion, we are no where near the bottom. Global indicators are still pointing to further down side. Every time the hon'ble FM comes on the TV and announces " all is well", the markets take further beating in the next few sessions.

No fault of FM,what he said ,was, ALL IS WELL FOR MARKET, but did not say anything about SHORTERS or LONGERS?

 

[pkjha30]

Those looking for V shape recovery should be expecting L shape sideways before W shape recovery takes place.This base building will help in next leg of bulls run.

pk

 

[jym]

Still the financial crisis are not exposed completely. I think, atleast 6 -12 months will take for a bull run. Ofcourse, in between there will be relief rallys.

 

[rajmuthusamy]

It may take min of 12 months - 18 months to see a good recovery.. we may have some short ups and downs for next few months.

FIIs are pulling out the money, Indian Institutions are also pulling the money out (due to redemptions) - so they will try to bring up the values of select stocks and sell it to the retail investors......

Hope to see some collective action at US / World finance ministers / Heads of Institute in the coming week.. (may bring a short rally)

regards

Raj

 

[raosrinivas]

It may take min of 12 months - 18 months to see a good recovery.. we may have some short ups and downs for next few months.

Raj

I remember 2001 october, i was looking for a better job at the time in chicago, i got an interview i was offered ridiculously low rate. i stopped looking for new job after that and stayed back with my company.

i have not seen anyone getting a job in 2002,2003 in US until 2004. i remember going to airport giving sendoff's to friend's and their family going back to india. 10 people cramming into a single room, who were otherwise well paid before, heard indian's parking car's in airports and leaving for india.
it was like people were trying to outlive a famine.

but it was a small problem , dot com crash got unemployment to 5.5%. this is going to be something which you have not seen in the last 30 years. recovery in 12-18 is going to be dream. the worst will play out in the next 2 years. DOW 5% down is not equal to sensex 5% down in a single day, you can't understand the seriousness of the issue.

 

[harsh_999]

the worst will play out in the next 2 years. DOW 5% down is not equal to sensex 5% down in a single day, you can't understand the seriousness of the issue.

Hi raosrinivas,
Please give us more details regarding WORST play and SERIOUSNESS of the issue.

Regards
Harsh

 

[raosrinivas]

Hi raosrinivas,
Please give us more details regarding WORST play and SERIOUSNESS of the issue.

Regards
Harsh

Lehman bonds auctioned at 8.625, which means you get 9 cents for 100cents. i do not want to scare by giving what it means in terms of sensex and nifty. fourth classs maths will be enough to know what it means.

 

[Prabhjeet]

Sorry to butt in with my technical view in this fundamentally based discussion.

According to my view what we are seeing are the capitulation levels for our markets atleast. If we consider our long term uptrend to be still intact then the usual bear market has 3 major down legs with cosilidations in between.

We already have had three legs, First one from 6300-4400, second one from around 5500- 3800 and last one that we are having is from 4600- 3200. Yes I am considering 3200 as a bottom because according to my view we have hit a bottom on Friday and we may have a bit of rally on daily charts and then their will be a long consolidation before we start a real hard rally on Monthlies.

Now if you carefully look at all the downlegs 6300-4400,5500-3800,4600- 3200 there is a definite proportion to all. There may be a false break of the lows we have currently made before the real strong uptrend on monthlies start. If the lows that we have made are broken by just 5-7% margin then I will consider this breakdown to be a bear trap, but if we break the lows by around 10%, then all hell will break loose. It will signify a 4th downleg and that will mean that Major trend for years to come has turned down, plus there will also be a 5th down leg.