Food for Thought........!

Discussion in 'Derivatives' started by S S, Aug 16, 2008.

  1. MurAtt

    MurAtt Well-Known Member

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    Yes I know that Sir. @Sriram sir helped - sometime back - Keltner moving out of BB = trending move coming. Direction cannot be ascertained.
     
  2. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi !

    To start with, sorry to TP & MA. My judgment proved wrong to some extent. The spot Nifty did remain below the channel formed by the two dotted black lines, when I had anticipated it to move back into the channel.

    [​IMG]

    As at the close the session on Fri 23rd Dec 2016, the spot Nifty had touched/crossed the lower Bollinger Band, but the last candle was green. The levels of 8130 & then 8070 did not give any support to the falling Nifty, and these levels now shall act as a resistance.

    And yet, I am still positive on the Nifty because the fall which we see in the Indian markets has also taken place in most of the world markets due to the US $ getting strengthened. And therefore, the current scene has nothing to do with the demonetization.

    As far as the US $ is concerned, the Rupee should now start getting the strength, which indirectly means that there should be inflow of foreign exchange in the country, mainly into the stock markets.

    [​IMG]

    This may not start immediately because most of the western markets are in the mood for Christmas celebrations and they do not have ‘Muhurat Trading’ like we do in Diwali.

    One major thing to be noted is that, while the global investors may return effective the first week of January 2017, the 50 days deadline given by the PM ends on Fri 30th Dec 2016. Thereafter, within next 2-3 days, I am expecting a major announcement from the government, that could act as a booster for the Indian stock markets.

    Therefore, it is very likely that the markets may remain range bound during this week to come, when all important stocks shall start getting consolidated. Very likely that each day’s end result could be more on a stock specific basis than the market as whole.

    And while the markets remain low currently, it will be a very good idea to buy Nifty Futures for Feb 2017, because the budget is on the 1st o Feb 2017, and I am sure that it will give a major boost to the Indian markets.

    That is my opinion based on my knowledge of the markets and I could be wrong.

    Wishing all the readers of this thread and also of this website a Merry Christmas and a Very Happy and Healthy New Year 2017.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
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  3. Happy_Singh

    Happy_Singh Well-Known Member

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    Hi

    Yesterday, besides saying the troubles for the dishonest will increase now,
    the PM had a few things to say about our stock markets (in the SEBI school function)
    did you miss that . . .

    he hinted on increasing the taxes on incomes from stock exchanges . . .
    also mentioning that days of low or zero taxes are over now

    Does it imply that his government considers the markets as "Den of the dishonest"

    Chidu introduced the STT . . . and seems Modi/Jaitley wants to kill the LTCG benefit of equity investor . . .

    funny though at the same time he calls upon SEBI to device ways for private citizens fund long term infrastructure projects

    Rather than looking forward to, people now fear the 8 PM telecasts of our beloved PM :D


    Wishing You and everyone here a Merry Christmas and a Very Happy and Healthy New Year 2017.

    Happy :)
     
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  4. newuser_RK

    newuser_RK Well-Known Member

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    I have spoken many times and will speak again that this government is hungry for revenues and they are using all tje means to gather more and more money.... I am 100% sure capital gains tax will come back and stt will remain.

    Some of the unfriendly steps of guvbsince 2014
    1. Tax on debt MF increased from 1 year to 3 year
    2. Stt on options increases( I fear it may be increased further as it is easy money no one will oppose)
    3. Excise duty on oil increase many times last 2 years, and now when oil is flaring up again they refuse to reduce duty and either customer or omc will suffer
    4.tax on divs more than 10 lac introduced

    I am sure there are many other taxes which were increased..

    Sent from my AO5510 using Tapatalk
     
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  5. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    Yes. I too noted that comment from the PM. But then, if one thinks positively and wonders, what can one do to boost the markets and tax them too simultaneously, one may come with some ideas that the govt may have in mind.

    In my opinion, the government shall make a marked distinction between an investor and a speculative trader.

    While the LTCG or the Long Term Capital Gains are usually after three years of investments that the stock markets and the mutual funds investments are allowed to have the LTCG after one year time period. This is one thing which may get looked into for raising the time period to three years, where the amount invested and /or the investment term may get linked to the income tax slab for claiming the exemption.

    It is widely believed that the F&O is ‘rich people’s’ baby. So, the govt consider many ways to increase the tax from the speculators. These charges shall possibly been overall increase in each category of the taxes that are currently charged, linked with the overall turnover from speculative trading. It is possible that the day trading and position trading may get separately defined with different tax implications.

    Primarily, the govt is trying to increase the tax base to bring down the tax rates, but then, the stock markets were always considered for the riches, keeping the poor away from it. That is obvious because only an educated person can be in the stock markets and there are more illiterates in the country who pay no Income Tax any way.

    And yet, in my opinion, Dec 2016 to Dec 2017, there should be sizable gains for the Nifty.
     
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  6. MurAtt

    MurAtt Well-Known Member

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    How about 'investing' in Dec 2017 9000CE in a SIPping manner ?
     

  7. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Not a bad idea. But personally, I would not take such a long position.
     
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  8. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    Many times, the market moves are based on available NEWS of one kind or the other, and the announcements made by Politicians and the government bodies play a major role in it. Therefore, before commenting on the markets, I would first comment on the PM’s speech in the eve of New Year.

    What the PM declared was mainly for Rural area and smaller towns. He made small loans available for house and business at lower interest rates. In a way, he subsidised the expenses for pregnant women, mainly residing in such areas, which included the registration in hospital, delivery expenses, and medicine and food to some extent. He also ensured that the senior citizens shall not have to bother about fluctuation in FD interest rates, for their savings up to 7.50 lacs. This is a very Big Deal for the residents of such areas.

    In short, for the first time in Indian History, a PM actually took steps for the poor and lower middle class people residing in rural area and small towns.

    Those residing in Metros would not understand the impact of such action, which is not only good for PM and his Political party, but also for the country on a long run. Some people would give negative comments like, there was no mention of black money in PM’s speech, PM may withdraw LGCG from next year, etc. Idiotic.

    Because such announcements can only be made in the Annual Budget, which is due after a month, that is on 1st Feb 2017. But instead of giving only the promises, the PM has assured that people in such areas shall get the benefit directly in one’s bank account. Those who do not have bank account shall now rush to have one, instead of criticising the PM.

    So far, the expectations from the PM are on the increase, which show the confidence of the people, that this PM may do something worthwhile for the country.

    And yet, after the PM’s speech, the Nifty Futures on Singapore exchange showed a negative move and remained negative. Surely, they will not understand India because such people grossly depend upon the News in Media, and India only has a Paid Media acting against the current government.

    If we see the spot Nifty chart as at the close of the last trading session of 2016, we find that the Nifty has successfully returned back into the downward sloping channel of the black dotted lines.

    [​IMG]

    The candle for Tue 27th Dec 2016 is touching the lower Bollinger Band and that day’s opening is way below the 10 DMA Red line. But in 4 sessions, Nifty has moved upwards, crossed the 10 DMA Red line on Thu 29th Dec 2016, which was a settlement day, and then continued upwards on Fri 30th Dec 2016.

    Now, in a worst case, when only the negativity gets highlighted, that the Nifty may move downwards, towards the two supports, that is, the 10 DMA Red line or the lower dotted black line of the channel.

    But I would take that as an opportunity to buy on dips. Because the spot Nifty, now, has to move towards the upper end of the channel formed by the black dotted lines, or very specifically, first towards the Upper Bollinger Band, which currently is at around 8262, and would move upwards as the spot Nifty moves upwards.

    The 200 DMA Green line, currently just below the Upper Bollinger Band, may give some temporary resistance. And even if the spot Nifty manages to cross these two, the 100 DMA Blue line, currently at around 8309 shall be the next resistance.

    I am reasonably confident that the spot Nifty would have crossed both the dotted black lines of the downward sloping channel and moved upwards by the time the current Financial Year ends.

    My opinion based on my understanding of the markets, and I could be wrong.

    Cheers & A Very Happy New Year to All.
    SS
     
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  9. PPM

    PPM New Member

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    what about a far month (3rd month) nifty future running entire yr (to be rolled over on 3 monthly basis)... It could generate good returns without hassle of frequent interventions and brokerage cost and capital required will also be very low. Only thing needed would be patience to hold the position and bear some drawdowns. Given the level of nifty right now those drawdowns will also be there for a month or so if you believe uptrend lies ahead....

    A put can also be used to tackle near term drawdowns...


    Awaiting traders responses for this idea i have been thinking since few months... It seems to be an opportune time for this idea since nifty i believe has bottomed out or at least it will bottom out in January...


    Even if nifty rises 10 percent from current levels -- 800*75 = 60000rs on an investment of 40000 + 20000 for initial drawdowns. Still its a 100% return without much hassles...
     
    Last edited: Jan 1, 2017
  10. S S

    S S Well-Known Member

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    Hi!

    So…. As anticipated, the spot Nifty moved upwards and almost reached the upper doted black line of the downward sloping channel, where it was greeted by the resistance zone created by 100 DMA Blue line (at around 8300) and upper Bollinger Band (at around 8308).

    [​IMG]

    Consider the last six candles. Of these, the first two and last two have similar pattern, where a Green candle of that day is followed by a higher top higher bottom Red candle. This pattern is called a “Dark Cloud Cover” which is invariably followed by a Red candle(s). Of these last six candles, the third & fourth candle prove that to be true, but it is not a 100% measure.

    Therefore, there is a strong possibility that on Mon 9th Jan 2017, the spot Nifty may open high, but only to see a fall thereafter.

    During last week, there appears to be a good inflow of foreign exchange, which made the Rupee stronger than the US $. And yet, there was no sizable upward movement in the spot Nifty.

    Now I see two possibilities.

    First… the spot Nifty may remain sideways for some time, and shall take it’s own time to cross the downward slopping black dotted line acting as a resistance.

    Second…. The spot Nifty, during next 3-4 sessions, may cross this downward slopping black dotted line, and then remain sideways for some time, when this dotted black line may act as a support.

    The current position of the charts do not indicate an assurance for the spot Nifty to touch/cross 8400 during the forthcoming week.

    My opinion based on my knowledge of the markets and the charts, and I could be wrong.

    Cheers!
    SS
     
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