Food for Thought........!

[S S]

Hi!

I always have said that the chart is “Kundali” which can forecast about the things to happen. Let me try to share my views about the chart for the spot Nifty at the close of the working session on Fri 4th Nov 2016. I may be wrong, but this is what I anticipate to happen in the near future :

The spot Nifty, after breaking the multiple supports at the bottom Bollinger & Keltner Bands, and also the 100 DMA level, has reached to the low of around 8400, which is well near the lower dotted black line of the channel.

The spot Nifty shall now start heading upwards, which in a way, is an indication that Hillary Clinton is definitely going to win the US Presidential election to be held on Tue 8th Nov 2016. That is for sure.

From here, I anticipate two possibilities.

First. The markets shall start improving, till the spot Nifty reaches the upper dotted black line. This should happen in about a month’s time or little more. Around 12th Dec 2016, it is anticipated that Hillary Clinton, (once wins the election) is definitely going to increase the interest rates.

This shall have a reaction for the US markets, which shall reflect in most of the global markets, which shall take the markets down again, for the spot Nifty again to reach/touch the lower dotted black line.

Thereafter, the spot Nifty then shall start it’s marathon run upwards, and shall be in a position to successfully cross the upper dotted black line in one or two attempts.

I also expect the forthcoming Union Budget being the Best of the Budgets presented so far, for everyone to say “Achhe Din Aa Gaye”, and markets shall be flourishing.

Second possibility is that the markets in the next week start moving upwards, and as Hillary Clinton wins, they shoot up, when the spot Nifty touches and crosses the Upper Dotted Black line. Thereafter, this very line shall act as a strong support and the spot Nifty may never again return to this channel formed by the two dotted black lines, but only flourish.

Which one of this is going to happen, I do not know. But I for one, am sure about Hillary Clinton’s win based on the status of the spot Nifty chart as above.

My opinion based on my knowledge of the markets and the charts, and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

But what if I am wrong and my reading is also wrong?

And Donald Trump wins....?

Then the lower black dotted line support shall NOT have any effect, and the spot Nifty may even fall to the low of around 7900.

That shall be a buying Bonanza for all.

Cheers!
SS

 

[chintan786]

But what if I am wrong and my reading is also wrong?

And Donald Trump wins....?

Then the lower black dotted line support shall NOT have any effect, and the spot Nifty may even fall to the low of around 7900.

That shall be a buying Bonanza for all.

Cheers!
SS

Let me give u another perspective. If Hillary wins, we never see 9k again. She is Goddess of War, infact their would be hard lending. Because she can win, KSA and China decreasing their T-Bills exposure. Rest of the things are Just voting chants, specially regarding Health care.

I prefer buy Trump and sell Hillary Theme.

If she Doesn't win their is possibility of Good Rally then... a sustainable one. US actually wants a dis-functional President which allows CIA, FBI, and Marines do their Job without asking who is next on the List.
Latest Example, US Navy attack on Houthis (Yemen). If Hillary wins their is possibility of First US-Russian clash over syrian skies and remember Putin is not Boris Yeletsin.

 

[S S]

Modi’s “Truph” Card

By demonetising the currency notes for Rs 500 and Rs 1000, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved victory on multiple fronts.

1. The fake currency flooded from Pakistan, Bangle Desh and elsewhere is no more valid.
2. The amounts collected by the corrupt government servants shall now rot in their custody.
3. The opposition parties, who had collected a large amount of black money, which they distributed to but votes, cannot now do so. Hence in the forthcoming elections in UP and elsewhere, BJP shall stand a better chance over others.
4. And if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential elections, the PM has one more victory :

As per the TV news yesterday, the betting in India for this election was as follows :

Hillary 100 : 121
Trump 100 : 547

Surely the amounts collected for this betting were in the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 100, which are no more valid and the winners shall not accept them. The betting is supposed to be controlled by the underworld dons, who shall now find difficulty in making the pay-offs, especially if Trump wins. That shall be a jolt to the underworld as well.

As a matter of fact, anyone winning would have made the Indian better’s life difficult for paying off. They can’t be holding that amount in hundred rupees currency notes.

Definitely now one can say that for the country India “Acche Din Aa Gaye”

There are some idiots, who are crying for the hardships they may have to face in the recent future. Little they understand that for getting rid of the disease, if the surgery is a must, then there shall be some pain for some time. But the disease shall be taken care of, thereafter.

Use this moment for long term buying of good stocks available cheaply.

Cheers!
SS

 

[timepass]

Everyone is saying goody goody things about this, so how come the markets are crashing ?? I guess there's more pain ahead before we see the success of the surgery, if at all.

Modi’s “Truph” Card

By demonetising the currency notes for Rs 500 and Rs 1000, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has achieved victory on multiple fronts.

1. The fake currency flooded from Pakistan, Bangle Desh and elsewhere is no more valid.
2. The amounts collected by the corrupt government servants shall now rot in their custody.
3. The opposition parties, who had collected a large amount of black money, which they distributed to but votes, cannot now do so. Hence in the forthcoming elections in UP and elsewhere, BJP shall stand a better chance over others.
4. And if Donald Trump wins the US Presidential elections, the PM has one more victory :

As per the TV news yesterday, the betting in India for this election was as follows :

Hillary 100 : 121
Trump 100 : 547

Surely the amounts collected for this betting were in the currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 100, which are no more valid and the winners shall not accept them. The betting is supposed to be controlled by the underworld dons, who shall now find difficulty in making the pay-offs, especially if Trump wins. That shall be a jolt to the underworld as well.

As a matter of fact, anyone winning would have made the Indian better’s life difficult for paying off. They can’t be holding that amount in hundred rupees currency notes.

Definitely now one can say that for the country India “Acche Din Aa Gaye”

There are some idiots, who are crying for the hardships they may have to face in the recent future. Little they understand that for getting rid of the disease, if the surgery is a must, then there shall be some pain for some time. But the disease shall be taken care of, thereafter.

Use this moment for long term buying of good stocks available cheaply.

Cheers!
SS

 

[S S]

TP,

Even if the PM had NOT taken any action yesterday, the markets world over were ready to crash with the news of Donald Trump leading/winning in the US Presidential elections.

That is what has happened the world over. Markets have fallen, as anticipated.

It is 9/11 today (9th Nov),and US has screwed the world and PM has screwed the holders of black money. That is the only difference from earlier 9/11 (11th Sep).

 

[chintan786]

Let me give u another perspective. If Hillary wins, we never see 9k again. She is Goddess of War, infact their would be hard lending. Because she can win, KSA and China decreasing their T-Bills exposure. Rest of the things are Just voting chants, specially regarding Health care.

I prefer buy Trump and sell Hillary Theme.

If she Doesn't win their is possibility of Good Rally then... a sustainable one. US actually wants a dis-functional President which allows CIA, FBI, and Marines do their Job without asking who is next on the List.
Latest Example, US Navy attack on Houthis (Yemen). If Hillary wins their is possibility of First US-Russian clash over syrian skies and remember Putin is not Boris Yeletsin.

Be Prepare for Trump Rally. 9k for sure.
First Casualty will be War in Syria. We are heading for Global Peace.

 

[S S]

TP,

I request you to go back in this thread, and read my posting dated 23rd July 2016 [# 705], wherein I have pointed out a likely fall to 7940 levels, when the spot Nifty was around 8540.

Then two months later, on 25th Sep 2016 [#721] I wrote:
“In a way, all the world is watchful about the presidential elections to be held in Nov 2016 in the US, the result of which is likely to have a reaction by all the world markets. If Hillary Clinton wins, the reaction is likely to be nominal. But if Trump wins, one can see a debacle the world over, which will make one believe that the current market rise was a bubble.”

That was when the spot Nifty had risen to around 8830, about 300 points up over my previous comment.

Today, it falls to a low of around 8000 [from yesterday’s close of around 8543, the fall of around 540 points in Nifty was contributed to the fact the Donald Trump was leading.

This is what you can compare to the BRExit development. No one even knew about the demonetization of currency notes of Rs 500 & Rs 1000, which the PM declared yesterday late evening. So, do not mix the two.

After BRExit, I had said that the markets shall recover after the initial impact, which they did. For this increase which took place later, it is foolish to give the credit to BRExit because the fall was because of BRExit.

Likewise, the fall today in the Indian, US and all the Global markets, is because of Trump’s Triumph. Over the period of time, the markets world over shall recover, for which Trump shall have nothing to do.

As for India, please understand one important factor. It was claimed that over 5 billion rupee worth currency notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1000, which were in circulations, now rot wherever they are lying. Because the holders of that amount have received that amount through illegal operations. However…!

The RBI shall be printing that much amount in new currency notes, which becomes a net income to RBI and the government. This shall reduce the budgeted deficit, and also help the government to take positive steps for the betterment of a common Indian citizen…. Something which no other political party has ever attempted to do.

Incidentally, it is almost 14 hours since the PM has declared the two denominations to be demonatised…..

And NOT A SINGLE POLITICAL PARTY FROM THE OPPOSITION HAS HAD GUTS TO COMMENT ON IT.

They are worried. Their holding of black money, which was to be used for the forthcoming elections in UP and other states has just vanished. Now, how can they manage the payments to the voters to make them vote for themselves?

Kejriwal and Rahul in particular are unusually quiet, which speaks for itself.

Cheers!
SS

 

[Happy_Singh]

Hi

Its been a great recovery . . .

Bank Index recovering a whopping 1450 points from LoD

Maybe Donald Trump will be -ve for markets but markets are taking this currency thingy as +ve

More money in the bank, people here forwards using more of digital money . . .
effectively a good growth in the banking system . . .

Anyway . . .

Happy

 

[S S]

Hi!

There is a lot of confusion in the minds of Traders-Investors. What can one attribute to Donald Trump’s win and what towards the surgical strike on Black Money in India.

But the picture is clear and one need not get confused. Let us understand the situation, starting with the US, and the Dow Jones as at the close on Fri 11th Nov 2016, was as follows :

One can clearly see the Dow gaining strength in all the five sessions during the last week. With the recent elections in the US, not only the President, but the Senate and Congress have been grabbed by the Republicans, which is expected to have smooth implementation of their policies in the next 4 years. This is positive for the industry and the Dow has zoomed up.

In addition, Trump was not in favour of increase in Interest Rates this December. These two factors make the US $ very strong compared to all the world currencies. This is reflected in the currency futures for USD-INR as follows :

The last two candles show the weakness of Rupee against the dollar, which is an indication of the Dollar availability getting reduced. In short FDIs and FIIs have sold part of their holdings to take the Dollars back to the US, due to the strength now visible in that country.

But the Global investors and traders were earlier expecting Trump to lose. His sudden win reflected in all the global markets and the Nifty opened extremely low on 9th Nov 2016, but recovered later, as can be seen by the last long Green candle for the spot Nifty chart below.

This happened for two reasons. First, the short coverings as the markets fell, and Second, the buying by genuine buyers at the lower levels. This brought the close on 9th Nov 2016, within the channel again.

This buying continued on Thu 10th Nov 2016, although the FIIs and FDIs were selling. On 11th Nov 2016, the traders again took over, FIIs continued selling, Dollar became more strong, and as the markets started falling. There were no genuine buyers left to buy more quantities.

Where does all this lead to?

FIIs investing back in the US is temporary. They shall soon realize that they get far better returns in Indian markets. The decision about the likely Interest Rates hike in the US, which is in Dec 2016 is now a big question. Donald Trump is the President elect all right, but he shall become President in Jan 2017. As a President Elect, how much his opinion is important currently, we all do not know.

But in all probabilities, the spot Nifty is expected to get back to the channel, remain in the channel, and move upwards for the next week.
In short, there apparently is no impact on the Indian Stock Markets, of the surgical strike on Black Money last week, in India. Indian Markets behaved in line with the other Global markets.

My opinion based on my understanding of the markets and the charts, and I could be wrong.

Cheers!
SS