Combining Trend-VWAP-Ranges - Pratap's method

[blackberry]

AMA was the oldest trick shared by Sir..but I guess rarely traded by others?

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-1893.html#post1098399

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-1894.html#post1098455

http://www.traderji.com/general-tra...68-general-trading-chat-1895.html#post1098468

@eku

Are you implementing it on EOD charts.

 

[princy01]

What is this noise afl please suggest?

 

[princy01]

Pratap Sir,I'm re-testing/backtesting all the systems shared by you..Pls clear this small doubt-

How SRSAR 15 and AMA 15 are different..both looking the same(very small difference)-

earlier I used to trade a combo of SASAR 3 n 15..now this got replaced by 15AMA and Noise Band.

eku ji

please share settings for all these afl's

regards

 

[niftytaurus]

Good Evening Pratap sir
Thanks a lot for all methods & afl you have shared generously with us.
This week I have put just 15 min AMA bands & observed it on 10 monthes of Nifty future..Result was as follows:-
MONTH TOTAL PROFIT TRADES LOSS TRADES BE trades PROFIT LOSS GROSS

FEB 43 16 27 O 785 240 545
MAR 33 19 14 0 755 210 545
APR 38 16 20 2 640 300 340
MAY 34 17 16 1 720 255 465
JUN 44 23 16 5 696 240 456
JUL 40 19 18 2 620 270 350
AUG 32 14 17 1 925 255 670
SEP 42 13 26 3 830 390 440
OCT 29 11 11 7 335 165 170
NOV 34 12 18 4 470 245 225


I am satisfied with results.but there are some points of my concern & confusion in which I need your suggestions
1) Probability of Profitabel trades are vary from month to month..its 30% to 57%..is it common or tradable?how to handel it?
2) Every month Profit points are always more than loss points..not a singel month of gross loss.. gross profit is always more than 200 points except OCT 2015..SO RESults are accorditn to my target of 200 points @month..But here I didnt deduct taxes,brokerage & slippage..
govt taxes & turnover charges are 150 rs for one lot nifty..which comes as 2 points..1 point brokerage..2 point average slipaage so total cost of one trade should be 5 points..
so if we do 40 trades average in a month..so our total cost be around 200 points which is a very big ..so if I reduce those 200 points from my gross profit..
345,345,140,265,256,150,470,240,-35,25 these are the Net profit points from FEB to NOV 2015..april,july,oct & nov kind of results are making me worried..especially Oct & Nov..Please suggest What I am missing?
I am using 15 min chart for taking trades (for reducing no of trades)..putting 15 min AMA..All trades are in direction of 15 min AMA..& exit is also mechanical..Though I observe your every afl..but this testing I have done only on That one afl of 15 min AMA..
Please suggest What to do now or Am I mising something? ..or what change Do need tO do to improve results?whats your opinion abouth this whole back testing?
Looking forward for your reply
thanks
t

 

[pratapvb]

Good Evening Pratap sir
Thanks a lot for all methods & afl you have shared generously with us.
This week I have put just 15 min AMA bands & observed it on 10 monthes of Nifty future..Result was as follows:-
MONTH TOTAL PROFIT TRADES LOSS TRADES BE trades PROFIT LOSS GROSS

FEB 43 16 27 O 785 240 545
MAR 33 19 14 0 755 210 545
APR 38 16 20 2 640 300 340
MAY 34 17 16 1 720 255 465
JUN 44 23 16 5 696 240 456
JUL 40 19 18 2 620 270 350
AUG 32 14 17 1 925 255 670
SEP 42 13 26 3 830 390 440
OCT 29 11 11 7 335 165 170
NOV 34 12 18 4 470 245 225


I am satisfied with results.but there are some points of my concern & confusion in which I need your suggestions
1) Probability of Profitabel trades are vary from month to month..its 30% to 57%..is it common or tradable?how to handel it?
2) Every month Profit points are always more than loss points..not a singel month of gross loss.. gross profit is always more than 200 points except OCT 2015..SO RESults are accorditn to my target of 200 points @month..But here I didnt deduct taxes,brokerage & slippage..
govt taxes & turnover charges are 150 rs for one lot nifty..which comes as 2 points..1 point brokerage..2 point average slipaage so total cost of one trade should be 5 points..
so if we do 40 trades average in a month..so our total cost be around 200 points which is a very big ..so if I reduce those 200 points from my gross profit..
345,345,140,265,256,150,470,240,-35,25 these are the Net profit points from FEB to NOV 2015..april,july,oct & nov kind of results are making me worried..especially Oct & Nov..Please suggest What I am missing?
I am using 15 min chart for taking trades (for reducing no of trades)..putting 15 min AMA..All trades are in direction of 15 min AMA..& exit is also mechanical..Though I observe your every afl..but this testing I have done only on That one afl of 15 min AMA..
Please suggest What to do now or Am I mising something? ..or what change Do need tO do to improve results?whats your opinion abouth this whole back testing?
Looking forward for your reply
thanks
t

The total of net figures is 2201 for 10 months.... That averages 220 a month....there are going to be good months, not so good months and bad months...even then this has low draw down (for this data) and averages above 200 a month....so what is the problem? Why optimize further?

BTW... What is entry exit and Re entry or reversal rules?

 

[eku]

Ohh I just found out that AMA was shared by Pratap Sir a very long time back..
Its a very powerful weapon along with his other AFL's...

Just check out this image on how to read AMA(6-15),along 60 SRSAR-

 

[eku]

@eku

Are you implementing it on EOD charts.

didnt get this

 

[niftytaurus]

The total of net figures is 2201 for 10 months.... That averages 220 a month....there are going to be good months, not so good months and bad months...even then this has low draw down (for this data) and averages above 200 a month....so what is the problem? Why optimize further?

BTW... What is entry exit and Re entry or reversal rules?

Thanks Pratap bhai for your prompt & helpful reply
Rules are simple..entry in direction of 15 min..its not completelly mechanical..Price action is seen there..all entry & all exit..no partial booking,no reentry & no reversal

As you said, average 200 points are ok..I agree with it..but One confusion..say we get good monthes when our position sizing was low..say example, I started in feb with 4 LACS RS, means with 4 lots..& gradually I increase my capital..suppose I have increased my capital to 10 lacs Rs in Oct & that monthes get Bad..then I can loss my capital more in those monthes..

Average formulae we can use, if we are using same capital over 10 monthes..then our average will be 200 points..but what about if capital size is changing every month ..in this example, till Aug, I am geting good profits,so my confidence would have been increase & I could have poured more capital & then this bad month came..so in this condition how would we manage our capital & plan money managent?
Thanks

 

[pratapvb]

Thanks Pratap bhai for your prompt & helpful reply
Rules are simple..entry in direction of 15 min..its not completelly mechanical..Price action is seen there..all entry & all exit..no partial booking,no reentry & no reversal

As you said, average 200 points are ok..I agree with it..but One confusion..say we get good monthes when our position sizing was low..say example, I started in feb with 4 LACS RS, means with 4 lots..& gradually I increase my capital..suppose I have increased my capital to 10 lacs Rs in Oct & that monthes get Bad..then I can loss my capital more in those monthes..

Average formulae we can use, if we are using same capital over 10 monthes..then our average will be 200 points..but what about if capital size is changing every month ..in this example, till Aug, I am geting good profits,so my confidence would have been increase & I could have poured more capital & then this bad month came..so in this condition how would we manage our capital & plan money managent?
Thanks

my understanding is that you are thinking in terms of the Re value of your loss/drawdown. If that is the case then one would never be able to scale up

You should think of profit and loss in terms of points. if you are trading 1 lot per lakh and 4 lakh so 4 lots....then you should think of 12000 as 40pts ....

 

[pratapvb]

my understanding is that you are thinking in terms of the Re value of your loss/drawdown. If that is the case then one would never be able to scale up

You should think of profit and loss in terms of points. if you are trading 1 lot per lakh and 4 lakh so 4 lots....then you should think of 12000 as 40pts ....

some options top check out as you have the entry and exit levels already with you

1. if you take off half at 20pts from entry and trail only the rest how does it affect the overall results? does it decrease the drawdowns but keeps overall month profit not much affected?

2. trade only half qty when in potential sideways ranges like VAH-VAL / noise band?

3. don't initiate longs near VAH but wait for VAH BO or shorts near VAL but wait for VAL BD