Since trading off on Saturday and Sunday, I have googled on the topic and found some amazing stuff !!
A simple coin flip gives a hit ratio of 50% on a fairly long trials, say 100 or so.
I have checked on banknifty the following strategy using coin flip strategy. For coin flip i have used this LINK.
The game starts at exactly at 10 AM when the bar closes. Flip the coin. If "Heads" go long with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50 points. Wait until either of them hits. Risk to reward is fixed throughout the game.
When one of them hits, now wait for immediate next hour close. Say first trade closed at 12:05 PM. So, the next hour will be 1:00 PM. Now, flip the coin. If "Tails" this time, go short immediately on next bar open. Again wait for target or SL hits. Donot open a new position after 3:00 PM.
The bet on this game is simple. On a fairly large trails(say 100), the hit rate should be around 50% ie 50 times. So, the winners should fetch 2500 points. The loosers should shed 1500 points. Gain of 1000 points minus brokerage, taxes etc.
The probability of loosing streak is also limited. Check yourselves.
Enjoy the game !!!
Insights are welcome.
A simple coin flip gives a hit ratio of 50% on a fairly long trials, say 100 or so.
I have checked on banknifty the following strategy using coin flip strategy. For coin flip i have used this LINK.
The game starts at exactly at 10 AM when the bar closes. Flip the coin. If "Heads" go long with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 50 points. Wait until either of them hits. Risk to reward is fixed throughout the game.
When one of them hits, now wait for immediate next hour close. Say first trade closed at 12:05 PM. So, the next hour will be 1:00 PM. Now, flip the coin. If "Tails" this time, go short immediately on next bar open. Again wait for target or SL hits. Donot open a new position after 3:00 PM.
The bet on this game is simple. On a fairly large trails(say 100), the hit rate should be around 50% ie 50 times. So, the winners should fetch 2500 points. The loosers should shed 1500 points. Gain of 1000 points minus brokerage, taxes etc.
The probability of loosing streak is also limited. Check yourselves.
Enjoy the game !!!
Insights are welcome.
ur exactly right one can make money by entering randomly/by flip coin....exits are more important than entries....if u use Atr Stoploss/trailing stop u would get more than u actually get from predefined target.
Regards,