Bakwaas Trading

Cubt

Algo Trader
#53
Aghubai,
I have tested ur ORB system with 6 years of data and it has given 10000 nifty points in 1050 trades. As u said, the problem starts when u increase ur position size after certain profits r achieved.

As per ur system maximum continues loss is 7 trades and 350 points. So assume 2 such loss occurs consistently which would wipe out 700 points. Instead of increasing position size after few profitable trades, we need to wait untill we gain this 700 points n increase ur position size after 7 continues loss trades.

Your orb system is really a good one, every system will have their own disadvantages but what really matters is the max draw down period, in that case ur system is really good.
 

augubhai

Well-Known Member
#54
Aghubai,
I have tested ur ORB system with 6 years of data and it has given 10000 nifty points in 1050 trades. As u said, the problem starts when u increase ur position size after certain profits r achieved.

As per ur system maximum continues loss is 7 trades and 350 points. So assume 2 such loss occurs consistently which would wipe out 700 points. Instead of increasing position size after few profitable trades, we need to wait untill we gain this 700 points n increase ur position size after 7 continues loss trades.

Your orb system is really a good one, every system will have their own disadvantages but what really matters is the max draw down period, in that case ur system is really good.
Yes, that is a part that i need to work on...

I don't remember the month... i think it was either Aug or Sep 2009. Before that, I had a great profit run of 8 consecutive profitable months - almost tripling money day trading with icicidirect's brokerages is no mean achievement:), especially when I was traveling, did not look at charts at all, logged into the website only to place order at market open and close. But in that one month, I lost all my profits... bad money management and over-confidence - no other reason.
I have explained my psychology in this post: http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/88102-bakwaas-trading-3.html#post825019

Since then, i have had many good runs in ORB... but have always given up for one reason or the other. 1 year back, I resigned my job for full time trading, and the reason for that was a couple of exceptional runs in ORB. But July-August of last year was really bad. Since then, I have been unsuccessfully trying to figure out a more consistent system and have not gone back to ORB, though it has been really doing well.
 

DSM

Well-Known Member
#55
Cubt/Augubhai,

ORB in what timeframe.?

Aghubai,
I have tested ur ORB system with 6 years of data and it has given 10000 nifty points in 1050 trades. As u said, the problem starts when u increase ur position size after certain profits r achieved.

As per ur system maximum continues loss is 7 trades and 350 points. So assume 2 such loss occurs consistently which would wipe out 700 points. Instead of increasing position size after few profitable trades, we need to wait untill we gain this 700 points n increase ur position size after 7 continues loss trades.

Your orb system is really a good one, every system will have their own disadvantages but what really matters is the max draw down period, in that case ur system is really good.
 

Cubt

Algo Trader
#56
So, per Rs. 2,00,000, I will try to trade 6-7 lots, and panic when the drawdown hits, and keep losing trading a system with positive expectancy!!!

How do i handle this?
As u clearly pointed out, the problem is no of lots u trade with.. when the back test result shows that u neee to have certain amount of money as a backup, do not use it for trading. Keeping it idle would surely help when max draw down occurs.
 

jamit_05

Well-Known Member
#58
Redundancy:

Updated plan...


Step 1: Find a system with +ve expectancy.

Step 2: Find a way to automate it.

Step 3: Add redundancy at each stage of the process

Step 4: Implement on all possible scrips.

Step 5: Rake in the money
Augubhai,

If we do the same thing over again, then the results are likely to be same. I, therefore, think that we need to change the outlook. Linkon Sir is to be credited for this shift.

He says that a one cannot be profitable in the way that it is made popular these days.

Conceptualizing->Backtesting->Developing Discipline->TRading away to Glory.

Real trading does not work this way.

We are very devious in the use of the phrase "designing a system". Linkon adds, for the most part, we want a system to avoid being WRONG!

After much thought, I see that this attitude of wanting to be Right has to change first. It goes way deeper than we think. It will be interesting introspection that way. So, now I will take only simple trades, with simple entries. And lets see where it goes.
 

Cubt

Algo Trader
#59
Yes, that is a part that i need to work on...

I don't remember the month... i think it was either Aug or Sep 2009. Before that, I had a great profit run of 8 consecutive profitable months - almost tripling money day trading with icicidirect's brokerages is no mean achievement:), especially when I was traveling, did not look at charts at all, logged into the website only to place order at market open and close. But in that one month, I lost all my profits... bad money management and over-confidence - no other reason.
I have explained my psychology in this post: http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/88102-bakwaas-trading-3.html#post825019

Since then, i have had many good runs in ORB... but have always given up for one reason or the other. 1 year back, I resigned my job for full time trading, and the reason for that was a couple of exceptional runs in ORB. But July-August of last year was really bad. Since then, I have been unsuccessfully trying to figure out a more consistent system and have not gone back to ORB, though it has been really doing well.
:clapping::clapping:
Appreciate your courage to quit ur job n purse what you love to do.

Infact your ORB system is way better than other system i have seen so far.

With 5mins TF, total points earned was 10000, after considering brokerage n slippage, it comes to 5400 points. which is 440% returns in 6 years.

Not sure its awesome or not, but definitely its a better one.

backtest results
http://www.4shared.com/file/Q7j8uaXk/intraday_backtest_resul.html
 

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