Bakwaas Trading
- Thread starter augubhai
- Start date
By believing passionately in something that still does not exist, we create it. The nonexistent is whatever we have not sufficiently desired. - Franz Kafka
On Friday, I traded with a new system, that randomly created entry and exit signals. http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/86833-augubhai-systematic-trader-227.html#post847021
It was a simple Parabolic SAR system - but I randomly kept changing the Parabolic SAR parameters throughout the day.
While all entries were based on the SAR signal, for exit I also had a TSL just in case I did not get a signal. Thinking about it this weekend, I guess that if I trade the same chart 100 times, I would get a 100 different results...
I wouldn't exactly call it gambling, because the system still has strict rules (rules that I was able to execute correctly on Friday, except one time)... and the system seems to have +ve expectancy, though there is no way to confirm it since it is random... With the random system, I am sometimes creating signals where none exist, and sometimes ignoring obvious signals...
My brain is in a twist... and I am thinking that I am creating and trading something that does not exist.
And here are my thought on gambling, that I posted on rajgreenpeace's thread:
On Friday, I traded with a new system, that randomly created entry and exit signals. http://www.traderji.com/trading-diary/86833-augubhai-systematic-trader-227.html#post847021
It was a simple Parabolic SAR system - but I randomly kept changing the Parabolic SAR parameters throughout the day.
While all entries were based on the SAR signal, for exit I also had a TSL just in case I did not get a signal. Thinking about it this weekend, I guess that if I trade the same chart 100 times, I would get a 100 different results...
I wouldn't exactly call it gambling, because the system still has strict rules (rules that I was able to execute correctly on Friday, except one time)... and the system seems to have +ve expectancy, though there is no way to confirm it since it is random... With the random system, I am sometimes creating signals where none exist, and sometimes ignoring obvious signals...
My brain is in a twist... and I am thinking that I am creating and trading something that does not exist.
And here are my thought on gambling, that I posted on rajgreenpeace's thread:
Some people think money is bad
some think capitalists are bad
some think businessmen are bad
some think brokers are bad
some think trading is bad
some this day trading is bad
some this derivatives are bad
some think options are bad
some think gambling is bad
only the foolish hope for good in everything...
Just like there are a few good traders, there are a few good gamblers.... Even gambling is not a bad word
some think capitalists are bad
some think businessmen are bad
some think brokers are bad
some think trading is bad
some this day trading is bad
some this derivatives are bad
some think options are bad
some think gambling is bad
only the foolish hope for good in everything...
Just like there are a few good traders, there are a few good gamblers.... Even gambling is not a bad word
The Plan:
Since, i was not browsing forum threads, i was "thinking" about what to do next... Yes! I was really using brains during trading hours. As usual, i was using it the wrong way - part fantasy, part crap :lol:
When i started the Systematic Trader thread, the plan to find a 100% rule based system with +ve expectancy - a la ORB. And here is the current plan.
Step 1: Find a system with +ve expectancy.
Step 2: Find a way to automate it.
Step 3: Implement on all possible scrips.
Step 4: Rake in the money
4 simple steps. that's all it takes.
i don't even think that I am close to finishing step 1, but it's really time to get serious about step 2. (i hope that i am closer to achieving step 1, though)
about step 2:
Assume, that magically the current random system that I trade, turns out to be one with +ve expectancy. So how do I automate it?
in a perfect world, i would have my charts totally integrated with my trading systems, and flawless ticks streaming into it, zero latency and zero slippage execution, and 100% fills. But in the current world that i live in, charts and trades are in 2 different sofwares, though they can communicate (one-way??).
Both the sofwares drop ticks, and are unreliable. So, it's possible that a trade could have been executed, and neither of the sofwares would have even a hint just from the ticks. They would have to ping the order book for status, using whatever cumbersome API exists.
Workaround: Monitor trades manually, and inform the status to the softwares by clicking a button, etc. I am thinking that for amibroker, I could have 3 buttons, to let it know the 3 statuses applicable to my current system - long, short, or no position. (I am thinking of using command buttons, though i have hardly seen any afls using it - http://www.amibroker.org/userkb/2008/03/08/command-buttons-trigger-type/)
So, then i will just have to click one of the 3 buttons on the chart when an order executes, and my afl should take care of putting SAR and TSL orders
Oh no!! The order still will not get through unless I have a NCFM certificate. Or i will have to manually right click in NOW to place the orders received from Amibroker - maybe a couple of times every minute... too much work. Maybe, an AutoIt script may help here
Step 3 should be easily implementable, if I achieve step 2. (anyway, i don't like to visualize possible troubles ahead)
Step 4 is my favourite part. I have thought to 100s of ways to rake in the money. That is why my old signature on TJ used to be from this song - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0XdSDmkIU0 (until Traderji deleted the signature for using Devanagari script)
planning wanning ho gayi boring...
apun maalamaal re, koi na fikar apni.... ghabrana bhool jayega, kal apne haatho me, honge kitne karod na re......
Since, i was not browsing forum threads, i was "thinking" about what to do next... Yes! I was really using brains during trading hours. As usual, i was using it the wrong way - part fantasy, part crap :lol:
When i started the Systematic Trader thread, the plan to find a 100% rule based system with +ve expectancy - a la ORB. And here is the current plan.
Step 1: Find a system with +ve expectancy.
Step 2: Find a way to automate it.
Step 3: Implement on all possible scrips.
Step 4: Rake in the money
4 simple steps. that's all it takes.
i don't even think that I am close to finishing step 1, but it's really time to get serious about step 2. (i hope that i am closer to achieving step 1, though)
about step 2:
Assume, that magically the current random system that I trade, turns out to be one with +ve expectancy. So how do I automate it?
in a perfect world, i would have my charts totally integrated with my trading systems, and flawless ticks streaming into it, zero latency and zero slippage execution, and 100% fills. But in the current world that i live in, charts and trades are in 2 different sofwares, though they can communicate (one-way??).
Both the sofwares drop ticks, and are unreliable. So, it's possible that a trade could have been executed, and neither of the sofwares would have even a hint just from the ticks. They would have to ping the order book for status, using whatever cumbersome API exists.
Workaround: Monitor trades manually, and inform the status to the softwares by clicking a button, etc. I am thinking that for amibroker, I could have 3 buttons, to let it know the 3 statuses applicable to my current system - long, short, or no position. (I am thinking of using command buttons, though i have hardly seen any afls using it
- http://www.amibroker.org/userkb/2008/03/08/command-buttons-trigger-type/)So, then i will just have to click one of the 3 buttons on the chart when an order executes, and my afl should take care of putting SAR and TSL orders
Oh no!! The order still will not get through unless I have a NCFM
certificate. Or i will have to manually right click in NOW to place the orders received from Amibroker - maybe a couple of times every minute... too much work. Maybe, an AutoIt script may help here Step 3 should be easily implementable, if I achieve step 2. (anyway, i don't like to visualize possible troubles ahead
)Step 4 is my favourite part.
I have thought to 100s of ways to rake in the money. That is why my old signature on TJ used to be from this song - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b0XdSDmkIU0 (until Traderji deleted the signature for using Devanagari script)planning wanning ho gayi boring...
apun maalamaal re, koi na fikar apni.... ghabrana bhool jayega, kal apne haatho me, honge kitne karod na re......
Mother lode of info here. Just discovered this site:
http://www.amibroker.org/userkb/
Sections 4 to 8 relevant to automation.
http://www.amibroker.org/userkb/
Sections 4 to 8 relevant to automation.
Redundancy:
Updated plan...
Step 1: Find a system with +ve expectancy.
Step 2: Find a way to automate it.
Step 3: Add redundancy at each stage of the process
Step 4: Implement on all possible scrips.
Step 5: Rake in the money
Events this weekend have forcefully brought out the need for redundancy... On Friday, my data feed failed. Yesterday night, my main computer started behaving strangely and I decided to format disk. After, a many hours of effort, I realized that I had not backed up Amibroker. So, lost my data and afls - neither of them is critical to my current trading, but it,s a lesson.
Lots of stuff need to be redundant - not easy because it will need some investment of time and money. And I am not even going to work on redundancy unless I am confident that Step 1 is complete.
Just listing down the points where redundancy needs to be built:
1. Trading systems - at least a couple of them with +ve expectancy
2. Markets - You never know what will happen. Think NSEL. Really big players should also have a foot outside India...
3. Brokers - couple of reliable and cheap ones. This also means redundant backup funds
4. Computers - at least 2 fully setup with all softwares - Charting and TWS.
5. Power - UPS
6. Connectivity - 2 to 3 internet connections - landline and wireless. And phones to get thru' to brokers.
7. Data Feed - atleast 2 ways to stream data.
8. Fit Human body with working brain - at least one... clone later
Will add more to the plan later...
Offices - 2, but difficult for 1 human to b present at more than 1 office.... or have partners.
And seriously, it is not a bad idea to have a redundant career as well
Updated plan...
Step 1: Find a system with +ve expectancy.
Step 2: Find a way to automate it.
Step 3: Add redundancy at each stage of the process
Step 4: Implement on all possible scrips.
Step 5: Rake in the money
Events this weekend have forcefully brought out the need for redundancy... On Friday, my data feed failed. Yesterday night, my main computer started behaving strangely and I decided to format disk. After, a many hours of effort, I realized that I had not backed up Amibroker. So, lost my data and afls - neither of them is critical to my current trading, but it,s a lesson.
Lots of stuff need to be redundant - not easy because it will need some investment of time and money. And I am not even going to work on redundancy unless I am confident that Step 1 is complete.
Just listing down the points where redundancy needs to be built:
1. Trading systems - at least a couple of them with +ve expectancy
2. Markets - You never know what will happen. Think NSEL. Really big players should also have a foot outside India...
3. Brokers - couple of reliable and cheap ones. This also means redundant backup funds
4. Computers - at least 2 fully setup with all softwares - Charting and TWS.
5. Power - UPS
6. Connectivity - 2 to 3 internet connections - landline and wireless. And phones to get thru' to brokers.
7. Data Feed - atleast 2 ways to stream data.
8. Fit Human body with working brain - at least one... clone later
Will add more to the plan later...
Offices - 2, but difficult for 1 human to b present at more than 1 office.... or have partners.
And seriously, it is not a bad idea to have a redundant career as well
hardly any progress on this plan. I am still stuck in Step 1 and 2...
Step 1 seems to be a lifelong quest.
(I can always say that I have the ORB system to fall back on, and it has given me huge returns n number of times. But with proper Money Management and Risk Management, I do not find the returns of pure ORB all that impressive.)
(Since I have to find something to rant at...) Step 2 is what's driving me nuts. I thought of using the Nest Plus Trader Plugin, but that has some bug that doesn't allow order modification. The interface itself is too bad, and there is no support for retail traders (though they have no issue in accepting subscription payments from retail traders).
Why do we still have lousy trading software in India? What prevents the big brokers from coming out with a world class software? Is there no demand? Or is it some ridiculous regulation that does not allow that to happen? :annoyed: Interactive Brokers or one of those algo providers is probably an option to consider, and so I may have to check that out... but that is not on my current agenda. i am just hoping that one of the brokers (or whenever big Reliance starts) will come out a good software....
I am very annoyed with Omnesys. They took my subscription money, and all I got was an opportunity to discover their bugs. :annoyed: i actually considered taking them to the consumer court, but then realized that I do not have time for all that drama.
But if someone has the time and the inclination to have them penalized, please do what you need to do...
Step 1 seems to be a lifelong quest.
(I can always say that I have the ORB system to fall back on, and it has given me huge returns n number of times. But with proper Money Management and Risk Management, I do not find the returns of pure ORB all that impressive.)
(Since I have to find something to rant at...) Step 2 is what's driving me nuts. I thought of using the Nest Plus Trader Plugin, but that has some bug that doesn't allow order modification. The interface itself is too bad, and there is no support for retail traders (though they have no issue in accepting subscription payments from retail traders).
Why do we still have lousy trading software in India?
What prevents the big brokers from coming out with a world class software? Is there no demand? Or is it some ridiculous regulation that does not allow that to happen? :annoyed: Interactive Brokers or one of those algo providers is probably an option to consider, and so I may have to check that out... but that is not on my current agenda. i am just hoping that one of the brokers (or whenever big Reliance starts) will come out a good software....I am very annoyed with Omnesys. They took my subscription money, and all I got was an opportunity to discover their bugs. :annoyed: i actually considered taking them to the consumer court, but then realized that I do not have time for all that drama.
But if someone has the time and the inclination to have them penalized, please do what you need to do...
Last edited:
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