A view on commodities

[Catch22]

Hi Catch22,

Just looked at the daily and weekly charts. Seems Mentha Oil is trading at its 3 years lows. Last two months, it is holding the bottom. So it seems like you are looking to buy at the lows, with the lowest bar being your SL.

On the daily charts, basis technicals, Mentha Oil is an avoid. Every break of price upwards is being sold into. Any buying of Mentha oil can only be speculative bet, but it may as well work out, as the last 10 weeks it has been trading in a very narrow range, and a break can be expected in any direction. Posting charts for your reference.

Thanks a lot :thumb:.You took trouble to study and post chart as well.Don’t neglect your own trades pl.Yes it is unusually in a small range ,these past few days .It’s ATR used to be higher ..This stop loss will be strictly in place .I understand, if this breaks there may be a major fall. The only reason for fall now would be , if the production is in excess ,and regarding that ,have not been able to get the info .If and when I do I will post it here .Thanks again .Best of luck with your trades .Take care.

 

[Catch22]

Few of the datas for this evening ..


6:00pm CAD Trade Balance
EUR ECB Press Conference
USD Trade Balance
USD Unemployment Claims
USD Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q
USD Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q


7.15 PM USD Final Services PMI

7.30 PM USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

8PM USD Natural Gas storage

8.30 PM USD Crude Oil Inventories

10:00pm USD FOMC Member Mester Speaks

Trade Safe .... Take Care.

 

[Catch22]

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[Catch22]

Data’s to be released this evening and tomorrow
6:00pm CAD Employment Change
CAD Unemployment Rate
CAD Labor Productivity q/q
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m

7:30pm CAD Ivey PMI

Sat ' Sep 6 7:45pm USD FOMC Member Plosser Speaks

 

[ankur07090]

Hi all,
Can you please suggest parameter for supertrend indicator in crude or silver
I am using EOD charts

thanks

 

[DSM]

Ankur - Since you have asked, here's my view.

Supertrend is good indicator in a trending market (as all indicators are). The good part of trading commodities is that they tend to trend in one direction. Any look of the commodity charts can confirm this.

However, to swing/positionally trade commodities profitably basis EOD charts, you need to have the mindset that will be able to accept the trade going 4-5-7-10-15 thousand against your position before resuming the trend. Can you hold on to this kind of a position? You need to be sure of your conviction and not switch looking at the charts on a smaller timeframe. This can absolutely shake your confidence. I am posting two charts 5D, 15M and 1D, 5M for your reference that shows what happened in Silver on Fri.

What this means, is that only you can decide how you want to trade. If taking this risk/SL this is not acceptable to you, would rather suggest to look at the commodity charts using 30/60M TF and then to take the trade basis a smaller TF of 5M - if the prices are moving in the direction of the bigger trend.

One word of caution if trading Silver (As I too trade Silver) Big spikes are used to run the stops of smaller trader in both directions for long as well as shorts. You can learn to use this to your advantage. Chart posted for your reference.

To answer your question, EOD setting of 10,3 on Supertrend confirms the solid trend. EOD setting of 10,1 on Supertrend will keep you closely aligned and enable you to get in early part of the move.

I guess you already have TT. Check chart with either settings. If you need me to, I will post the EOD charts if required.

Hi all,
Can you please suggest parameter for supertrend indicator in crude or silver
I am using EOD charts

thanks

 

[ankur07090]

Hi DSM,
thanks for your reply
ST with 10,1 wuth EOD charts looks superb. I have to test it for few days or months
I have a question here, Suppose at the starting of day when markets open ST give me a buy call with green line then after few hours if prices goes down, Can that green line convert into red line means at that time in midday it will give sell direction in the same day.

thanks

 

[ankur07090]

Hi DSM,
As you are senior and have good knowledge.I have some query can you pls help me.
Below is the image I have marked some arrow(white) on the above of some candles.
First white arrow on a green candle and in charts ST showing me a buy signal.
Second arrow on a red candle and in charts ST showing me sell signal.
I have a confusion here that these buy and sell signal on ST i get on morning or in the midday when candle crosses the ST line as this is EOD charts.

thanks

 

[DSM]

Ankur, there are no perfect answers in realtime, and one has to make a decision by looking at the overall trend besides looking at the indicators.

Silver is in a downtrend as apparent in the chart. Then it went into a long consolidation mode (trading in a range) and the buy signals were opportunities to sell (in hindsight) but also considering the trend, and failure to break the range. Unless Supertrend gave a buy signal ALONG with a break of the high of the range decisively, it is not a buy, but always an opportunity to short, by looking at the trend in the small TF.

Suggest you look at the overall trend along with the indicator signal. This will help you to trade the volatile commodity. Best is to stick to trading by making a few larger gains trading intraday basis LT trend. And only if the firm trend is established basis visual pivots and/or Supertrend (Setting 10,3) can you take a swing/positional trade.

My 2C.

Hi DSM,
As you are senior and have good knowledge.I have some query can you pls help me.
Below is the image I have marked some arrow(white) on the above of some candles.
First white arrow on a green candle and in charts ST showing me a buy signal.
Second arrow on a red candle and in charts ST showing me sell signal.
I have a confusion here that these buy and sell signal on ST i get on morning or in the midday when candle crosses the ST line as this is EOD charts.

thanks

 

[ankur07090]

Hi DSM,
thanks for ur reply
can you pls tell me about LT trend nd firm trend
what does this mean ?
thanks