A view on commodities

Hi Dax Devil,

I can understand your frustration - but be assured that this is a misunderstanding. There was no restriction on new members post being published till recent times. However, some unscrupulous elements opened accounts and soon started spamming and posted tel. numbers related to escorts etc. Thereafter the posting policy for new members became a bit stringent to weed out such post. I think once a member's credential and intentions are verified to be genuine, there is no issue about posting....

I understand you completely. I am all for it. I think yesterday TJ team being on holiday or something, the extra care had to be taken. If I were a moderator I would do the same if unwanted trouble making could be deterred anyhow. Guess I was a bit hasty in judging. No worries. Thanks again.

(15Apr2015 20:01:24) : Crude inventory Update- U.S commercial Crude oil inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels from the previous week.(Forecast 3.5 M)(Previous 10.90 M) Data Positive for Crude

So this reason for spike.
market reacted to bullish supply news.

Should't be excess inventories result in downwards price.
When supply is more price fall and short then price rises.

Guys how do you reads those inventories reports ?

Trade the 8 PM bar

As soon as the zig-zag moves settles down after the announcements, usually we get a good intraday trend . . . 40/50 points one side move :thumb:


Thanks

Hi Snake.Head,

Below is the inventory report. The highlighted is the important part. The inventories were expected to be +3,450, but actual was below expectations at +1,294 which is basically bullish as compared to expectations. However, it must be noted that crude does not always behave in a rational manner as one would expect. At times bearish reports end up with crude closing higher and bullish report are sold into....

15/04/2015 20:00:44 : DOE US Crude oil inventories Exp {+3540 K} Pre {+10949K} Actual {+1294 K}
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventories Exp {+680K} Pre {+1232K} Actual { +1287K}
DOE US. Gasoline inventories Exp {-660 K} Prev {+817 K} Actual { -2072 K}
DOE US. Distillate inventory Exp {+255 K} Prev {-250 K} Actual { +2017 K}
DOE US. Refinery utilization Exp {+0.64 %} Prev {+0.70 %} Actual { +2.20 %}

Trend Moves are best.It is better know when news/report can make price swing any directions.
Below is 5min Crudeoil mini chart for yesterday.
7.50 and 7.55 bars where good bear bar and second leg down.Would ideal bar to take short position.
Very next bar 8 PM bar was big bull bar


US Crude oil inventories Exp {+3540 K} Pre {+10949K} Actual {+1294 K}
Report came lower then expected,Which mean supply is short then expected.ideal would be taking long setup only.
keep reports in mind are good to know that you don't take trade on wrong side.
Price action too play important part like MM target for 8 PM bar.It no way you can be sure that those target will meet requirement.
But there was 2 confirm setup after 8pm bar,which would have given 20-40 point,depending where you enter them.
I would have exit my entry of 2nd pullback on next reversal of 8.40pm bar
There is no way we can catch each and every move.Plus psychology and risk management key

DSM I remember u once mentioned in thread how to calculate it, I tried but cant find it. Can you please tell me the method?

I go to live streaming chart and calculate with dollar price, but always comes out to be incorrect, DSM has mentioned in one of threads how to calculate exact price.

Narangji, Copied below previous post : In essence, consider the closing price of commodity on MCX, multiply by % change in open in Comex and multiply by change in price of USDINR pair.