A view on commodities

Crude shoots up on Saudi output cut, U.S. data (Edited excerpt)

http://www.investing.com/news/commodities-news/crude-shoots-up-on-saudi-output-cut,-u.s.-data-314061

(Crude closed at 5,035 on MCX up .46% from previous close. However, internationally, crude is trading higher at 2%+ based on the news that Saudi Arabia has cut its output. In my view, other countries may also go in for a production cut with a view to boost oil prices. But how long the prices will remain up, is a question, as in my opinion crude will be sold into at higher levels.... Unfortunately tomorrow MCX is closed for trading, so an opportunity to trade out of narrow, volatile market is lost tomorrow. We now need to see how crude trades tomorrow and if it can carry forward the gains......)

Investing.com - Oil prices shot up on Thursday on news Saudi Arabia trimmed output in September to support the market, while upbeat U.S. data and earnings boosted prices by stoking hopes for a more robust U.S. recovery.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for delivery in December traded up 1.52% at $81.74 a barrel during U.S. trading, up from a session low of $80.06 a barrel and off a high of $82.34 a barrel.

The December contract settled at $80.52 a barrel on Wednesday. Support for the commodity was seen at $79.10 a barrel, last Thursday's low, and resistance at $83.26 a barrel, Tuesday's high. Oil prices got a boost after Saudi Arabia said it cut crude oil production by about 328,000 barrels in September to a total of 9.36 million barrels.

London-traded Brent prices have fallen nearly 26% since June, while WTI futures are down almost 23% from a recent peak of $107.50 in June.
Concerns over weakening global demand combined with indications that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries will not cut output to support oil markets have weighed on prices in recent weeks.

OPEC oil output hit a two-year high of 31 million barrels per day in September, led by higher production from Iraq and Libya. Some market analysts believe that only a cut in production by the oil cartel will halt the decline in prices.
Oil ministers from the 12-member group are scheduled to meet in Vienna on Nov. 27 to consider whether to adjust their production target for early 2015.
Elsewhere, bullish data out of the U.S. gave oil a boost as well on expectations that a more robust U.S. economy will consume more fuel and energy.

seems currently 81.33$ will hold. jUST WANTED 2 KNOW UR VIEWS ON THIS

Hi Sangram,

Nice chart. Thanks for posting. On the TF you have posted, it seems like Crude will have support. Here's my view :


* The important factors are Trend in the higher TF and Pivot Levels and the Price. Just looking at the indicators or individual candlestick pattern can prove costly.

* My 2C, Protect capital and trade safe..... Always

Hi Sangram,

Nice chart. Thanks for posting. On the TF you have posted, it seems like Crude will have support. Here's my view :

* You always have to refer to the chart in the higher TF to see if the support could hold.

* Your chart TF is intraday, which is fine to trade, but if you study it closely, you will find that there are BETTER opportunities to trade on the short side (in sync with the trend, rather than to go long)

* You also need to see the BIGGER PICTURE. Crude is making Lower Highs, so though bounce back (as an intraday trader can be taken, you must be clear about your SL and look to exit at the earliest sign of reversal)

* The important factors are Trend in the higher TF and Pivot Levels and the Price. Just looking at the indicators or individual candlestick pattern can prove costly.

* The above factors and crude price are DEPENDENT on the fundamentals of economics : Demand and Supply. There is low demand and supply glut. So fundamentally, traders are using any spike in price to sell off, as it happened on the news that Saudi Arabia had cut crude output. The 2%+ spike has got sold into.

* On the Weekly and Monthly charts, support levels are much lower.

* Possibility of crude going down another 10% cannot be ruled out.

* As intraday traders, we leave our ANALYSIS and STUDY to take a trade in the direction of the trend and momentum. No sense in sticking to idealogy or analysis in face of 10K+ bounce.

* My 2C, Protect capital and trade safe..... Always.

From last few days silver is driving everyone crazy by range bound movement.

any views on this???

Moharum 04th Nov. 14 Tuesday Morning session - Closed //
Evening -5pm to 11.55 pm - Open

Guru Nanak Jayanti 06th Nov. 14 Thursday Morning session- Closed //
Evening -5pm to 11.55 pm – Open

http://www.mcxindia.com/marketoperation/tradingsurvaillance/tradingholidays.htm

– Due to change in US daylight saving timings, the evening trading hours will be be available till 11.55 pm from November 03, 2014.

Has the evening session timing changed from 11:30pm close to 11.55pm close. yesterday I too observed that market was open till 11:55pm. IS there any circular from MCX regarding this??